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FXUS64 KOUN 292346 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 546 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Through Daybreak Thursday: Low-impact weather will continue into early Thursday morning. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to top out in the low to mid-60s. Sky cover will continue to increase ahead of an approaching upper system.

Increasing low-level mass (moisture) response is expected during the overnight period, especially across southern/central Oklahoma.
Combined with low clouds, overnight temperatures are expected to remain 'warm' (50s) from the I-44 corridor and south/east. Where overnight temperatures remain coldest (far north), patchy fog areas may emerge (20-40%), with localized visibility restrictions possible. Otherwise, scattered rain shower development is expected towards daybreak across southeast zones, aided by a 40-45 kt low- level jet/isentropic lift.

Thursday: An unsettled period is expected, with potential for thunderstorms (a few potentially strong/severe) and widespread rainfall through much of the day. A well advertised shortwave trough looks to lift from northern Mexico into the Texas Rolling Plains through the day. Shower coverage is expected to expand westward through the late morning/early afternoon as isentropic lift increases areally ahead of the main upper wave. Highest coverage (70-90% chance for measurable rainfall), as well as longest duration of rainy conditions, is expected along and east of the I-44 corridor on Thursday, though most areas will likely see rainfall.

In addition, scattered thunderstorm potential remains evident at this update, especially for southern into southeastern Oklahoma and north Texas. Short-range ensemble/HRRR guidance highlights potential for marginally sufficient (elevated) instability such that a few embedded thunderstorms are expected through the day.
There also appears to be an attendant low (20-30%) chance for a few strong to severe storms, posing a risk for hail given favorable deep-layer kinematics. This potential looks to focus from the early afternoon through late evening. A secondary area of interest for a storm/hail threat will be near a resolved dry- slot, where locally steeper lapse rates (beneath the cold low) may briefly increase some hail concern, though uncertainty in whether storms ultimately develop in this regime exists.

Ungar

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Thursday Night: Some chance for a rain/snow mix remains across far northwestern Oklahoma, though impacts are expected to remain limited. A surface low is forecast to slowly deepen and lift towards the western Ozarks late on Thursday into early Friday.
There remains a relatively consistent signal for the development of a deformation precipitation band on the northwest periphery of the low during the period. Given sufficient cooling aloft, wintry precipitation types may mix in with rain across far northwest Oklahoma late Thursday. While uncertainty in the placement/axis remains, current signal places this feature from the far northeast Texas Panhandle into portions of central Kansas. Impacts in our area (far northwest Oklahoma) are expected to remain very limited owing to warm (40s) afternoon temperatures during Thursday afternoon.

Friday: The cool/coldest day of the period is expected with a return towards dry surface weather. A cool airmass will settle across the area on Friday in the wake of a cold front passage. This will offer the coldest day in the period, with highs in the 40s across northern Oklahoma where a higher concentration of modified air and low cloud cover is expected during the day. Temperatures along and south of the I-40 corridor are expected to remain near to slightly below average for the first day of December (low to upper-50s).

Weekend-Early Next Week: A slow warming trend in temperatures, along with mainly dry weather, is expected. A short wavelength/highly amplified upper system is expected to progress from the Intermountain West into the Central Plains by late Saturday. While increasing ascent would tend to favor at least low chances for precipitation across northern portions of the area, a dry boundary layer may preclude more than very limited (~10%) chances for showers on Saturday across the aforementioned areas. Otherwise, an upper ridge will slowly slide towards the central CONUS towards early next week, fostering dry surface weather and near to slightly above normal temperatures (50s to mid-60s).

Ungar

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions (breezy south winds and scattered high clouds) are expected to continue this evening. MVFR cigs are expected to slowly advance northward from the Red River Valley into northern Oklahoma from very late Wednesday evening (04-05 UTC) through Thursday morning. Flight category/rule will slowly worsen to IFR at most terminals by mid-morning on Thursday, coincident with increasing chances for rain/mist. There is a low (20-30%) chance for a period of LIFR conditions at terminals along and south of I-40 during the day on Thursday. A few thunderstorms are also possible on Thursday, though any direct terminal impacts are uncertain at this time.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 48 56 37 50 / 10 90 60 0 Hobart OK 48 57 31 52 / 0 80 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 52 61 35 56 / 10 80 10 0 Gage OK 40 50 26 47 / 0 80 50 0 Ponca City OK 42 56 36 42 / 10 80 90 0 Durant OK 50 60 42 58 / 50 100 40 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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