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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nash, OK

June 25, 2024 9:53 AM CDT (14:53 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM
Moonrise 11:10 PM   Moonset 8:56 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nash, OK
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Area Discussion for - Norman, OK
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251 FXUS64 KOUN 251119 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 619 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024


(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Remnant showers and thunderstorms moving southeast across Kansas may approach northern Oklahoma this morning as they weaken.
Otherwise, hot conditions will continue today (and beyond) with Oklahoma and north Texas on the northeast periphery of a ~593 dam mid-level ridge. Afternoon highs will once again be in the upper 90s to mid 100s deg F with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 deg F. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon.

The given synoptic pattern places the Southern Plains within northwest flow aloft. Various convective-allowing and parameterized models indicate ascent from a subtle vort max/PV anomaly embedded in the northwest flow will be sufficient for convection initiation across northern Oklahoma in an uncapped environment late afternoon into the evening. Given the ascent appears subtle, thunderstorms are not a guarantee, but there is at least a modest chance (~40%).

If thunderstorms occur, the primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts given a large amount of downdraft CAPE (~1500 J/kg) and modest temperature-dewpoint spreads (~40 deg F) in a hot environment. Any thunderstorms should gradually weaken with the loss of daytime heating during the latter half of the evening as they move southward.


(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Wednesday: A weak boundary/wind shift will advance southward and will near be located near I-40 during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near this boundary across east central into southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will continue. Moisture-pooling near and south of this boundary and easterly winds will result in even higher dew points with heat indices at least reaching 110 deg F. Therefore, a Heat Advisory was issued for Wednesday. There is the potential parts of the area, especially across southern Oklahoma, may need to be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning. Winds will be light with the weak boundary in the area, so wet bulb globe temperatures could reach the extreme category.

Thursday-Friday: The mid-level ridge will become elongated in a west to east direction across the southern half of the United States. Northern Oklahoma will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow. Thunderstorms (or at least the remnants of thunderstorms) may skirt near the Kansas/Oklahoma border with most of the convection staying to the north. Otherwise, the heat will continue. Heat Advisories will likely be needed during this period.

Saturday-Sunday: A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region, which will advance a cold front southward into the Plains with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty on how far south the cold front and cooler air will advance with probabilistic guidance indicating a 10 to 15 deg F range for high temperatures on Sunday (between the 10th and 90th percentiles). This is the largest temperature spread among probabilistic guidance in the next week. At this time, the most likely scenario is a few degrees cooler Sunday with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s deg F. There is only a 20% chance for high temperatures in the 80s deg F across northern Oklahoma. That probability decreases to 10% in central Oklahoma.

Monday: Any cool down will be brief as temperatures will likely rise early next week with a strengthening low-level thermal ridge.


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions will continue...for now. For the first 12 hours of this cycle, not much change in the ongoing pattern, just a few areas of high clouds and VFR ceilings. Short term section above does a good job of laying out the reasoning, but there will be some areas of showers and/or thunderstorms developing late this afternoon and evening. Have carried Prob30 groups for TSRA for the northern half of Oklahoma, with the areas near the Kansas border to have the best chance for ceiling or visibility restrictions due to storms. While kind of a tricky forecast for attempting to determine the exact spots for thunder...there will be two more TAF cycles to attempt to refine the areas further.


Oklahoma City OK 99 76 101 74 / 10 30 10 10 Hobart OK 101 76 103 75 / 10 30 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 100 79 104 77 / 10 20 0 0 Gage OK 103 71 99 72 / 30 30 0 10 Ponca City OK 101 74 99 72 / 30 40 10 10 Durant OK 97 79 99 75 / 10 20 20 10

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>048- 050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.

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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KWDG ENID WOODRING RGNL,OK 21 sm6 minS 1110 smPartly Cloudy93°F72°F50%29.88
KEND VANCE AFB,OK 22 sm58 minS 0810 smClear84°F72°F66%29.87
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Vance AFB, OK,

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