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FXUS66 KHNX 112120 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 120 PM PST Mon Dec 11 2023


SYNOPSIS
Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees will continue in rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley each night and early morning through Wednesday morning. A warming trend is anticipated Wednesday through Saturday. Dry weather will persist through at least the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Freeze Warning remains in effect for rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley until 8 AM PST Wednesday

2) Warming trend Wednesday through Saturday

3) Dry weather through at least Saturday

4) A 50 to 55 percent chance for above normal precipitation by early next week

DISCUSSION
A good portion of the San Joaquin Valley outside of rural areas experienced freezing temperatures again late last night and early this morning. A weak shortwave trough pushing into the region will reinforce cool air in place, and high temperatures this afternoon will be a degree or so cooler than yesterday but still a few degrees above climatological normals. Minimum temperatures will be slightly lower also, and more widespread freezing temperatures will occur in the San Joaquin Valley Tuesday morning.
The following are chances from probabilistic guidance for freezing morning temperatures for select areas of the San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday:

Madera 79% Delano 74% Visalia 69% Hanford 64% Lemoore 54% Merced 49% Porterville 34% Reedley 14% Fresno 0% Bakersfield 0%

Probabilities for freezing temperatures Wednesday morning are similar, and the Freeze Warning for rural portions of the San Joaquin Valley continues until 8 AM PST Wednesday.

A closed low developing within the trough will drop southward from the Great Basin area and swing through the Desert Southwest Wednesday. Ridging behind the low pressure system will bring a warming trend to our area for the latter half of the week. By the end of the week, temperatures will be as much as 12-15 degrees above normal. For Saturday, probabilities that afternoon highs will reach 70 degrees or higher are running around 30-50 percent in the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley and around 60-80 percent in the southern half.

An approaching low pressure system will begin to displace the west coast ridge by the start of next week and afternoon highs will lower a few degrees. Dry conditions continue through this week, before the approaching low brings a chance for mainly light precipitation to areas outside the Kern County desert zones by Sunday and Monday. Probabilities run around 20-30 percent, a little higher in the Sierra.




AVIATION
Areas of MVFR visibilities with local IFR or lower conditions will be possible in the San Joaqin Valley tonight and early Tuesday morning due to mist and fog. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across Central California through at least the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Monday December 11 2023, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno and Kern Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning until 8 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ301>303-305-306- 309>312-315.

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San Joaquin Valley, CA,