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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 210 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming W 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 16 seconds.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell around 2 ft.
locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.

PZZ500 210 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
breezy northwest winds continue into midweek, but will reduce and become light for the late week. Moderate period southerly swell 12 to 14 seconds persists through the week, alongside a shorter period northwesterly swell at 8 to 10 seconds. A longer period northwesterly swell moves into the waters today but becomes moderate into the end of the week.

FXUS66 KMTR 032027 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 127 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 125 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Surface high pressure developing over the Great Basin will result in downsloping, warming, and drying offshore breezes to the Bay Area coastline this week. Expect well above normal high temperatures, but readings should remain below record values at most locations. Cooler onshore breezes return by late in the weekend with troughing approaching from the northwest.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

An expansive high pressure ridge over the northeast Pacific will progress towards NorCal and the Pacific Northwest as its influence over our area increases. After a cool morning with coastal fog temperature are on the upswing this afternoon as readings climb well into the 60s and 70s. Highs today should top out in the 70s along the coast with lower to mid 80s for the warmest inland spots. Light offshore flow should increase tonight with a moderating influence on overnight lows. Readings will only drop into the mid to upper 50s across much of the Central Coast, with upper 50s to lower 60s around the Bay Area. A few of the higher spots in the North Bay interior Mountains should remain in the mid to upper 60s. While fire weather concerns remain modest, there will be a short period of breezy winds and lowered RH tonight particularly around Mt. St. Helena. Otherwise the bigger warmup commences tomorrow. Plentiful sunshine, clear skies, and compressional/downslope warming should allow for a quick upward jump in surface temperatures. Look for midday highs to reach the upper 70s and 80s along the coast, with upper 80s to lower 90s inland. This setup (unlike most others this summer) favors warm temperatures at the coast. So the normally cooler spots like downtown SF and Monterey will not be spared from the heat. These locations are likely to at least reach the lower 80s before the afternoon seabreeze kicks in and drops readings during the evening hours.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 125 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Thursday through Saturday:

Our weather will remain dominated by a stout high pressure ridge encompassing the western CONUS. Its influence will wane towards Saturday however as upstream troughing encroaches from the NE Pacific. Our heat event should peak on Thursday into Friday with high pressure in control and a likely lack of marine layer clouds.
Winds will remain light and offshore, with the daily seabreeze arriving later in the day along the coast. This should allow temperatures to heat up appreciably with inland highs climbing well into the 80s and 90s. Once again the coastal spots will not be spared this go around with highs at least into the low to mid 80s.
Taking a look at probabilistic temperature guidance from the National Blend of Models, downtown San Francisco has a 90th percentile value (representing a "reasonable worst case" scenario)
of 89 and 87 degrees for Thursday and Friday respectively. So while the official forecast is a few degrees below this, its not out of the question that some portions of the city could near or eclipse the 90 degree mark. Given the lack of really warm days along the coast this year it's possible that Thursday and/or Friday end up among the warmest days of 2023 within the city.
With these thoughts in mind, some adjustments to the maximum and hourly temperature grids were made and/or maintained to represent this potential. It does appear that readings may decrease a bit on Saturday as an upstream trough encroaches on the region from the Pacific. Saturday still looks warm, but odds are we'll see a bit more onshore flow and coastal cooling as compared to the previous few days. Overnight lows should generally range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s; warmest in the hills and within the urban corridors.

Sunday through Tuesday:

Some erosion of the upper ridge is anticipated along its northwest periphery as upper troughing enters the Pacific Northwest. This will bring cooler temperature to the area, along with a likely return of marine layer clouds. A trailing front attendant to the upper trough does look to approach the North Bay late in the forecast period, with slight chance PoPs reaching the Bay Area. Ensembles are split on whether measurable rain reaches the North Bay but this will be something to fine tune with future forecast updates. Temperatures should remain seasonal with non-coastal highs generally in the 70s to around 80. Cooler readings will prevail along the coast.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

VFR through the TAF period for much of the region as high pressure aloft compresses the marine layer. Local FG impacts Wednesday morning remaining confined to the coastal areas. Winds remain light through the TAF period as well.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Breezy onshore flow this afternoon 10-12 kts, light and variable otherwise late this morning and overnight into Wednesday morning. FEW clouds may return during the early morning hours Wednesday, though confidence in this occuring is low, and any cloud cover is likely to remain on the coastal side of the SF peninsula.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through tonight. Winds remain light and variable with the exception of this afternoon for KSNS and terminals in the vicinity of the Salinas valley where winds will be breezy this afternoon 10-12 kts. With the compression of the marine layer due to high pressure aloft, not much inland penetration of clouds and FG will occur overnight, but locations near the coast are likely to have at least some local FG impacts early Wednesday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 125 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Breezy Northwest winds continue into midweek, but will reduce and become light for the late week. Moderate period southerly swell 12 to 14 seconds persists through the week, alongside a shorter period northwesterly swell at 8 to 10 seconds. A longer period northwesterly swell moves into the waters today but becomes moderate into the end of the week.



CLIMATE

Record high data for this week:

Location Oct 4th Oct 5th Oct 6th ------------------------------------------------------------------ Santa Rosa 101 1920 103 1933 102 1930 Kentfield 99 1987 100 1987 97 1930 Napa 100 1987 101 1987 96 1930 Richmond 99 1987 99 1987 91 1996 Livermore 106 1980 100 1980 100 2014 San Francisco 100 1987 102 1987 94 1992 SFO 95 1987 99 1987 92 1992 Redwood City 101 1980 99 1987 99 1987 Half Moon Bay 87 1953 82 2013 87 1972 Oakland City 92 2014 96 1987 93 1976 Salinas 100 1987 105 1987 95 1972 King City 106 1944 105 1933 100 1996

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ540-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ570.

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Monterey
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Tue -- 02:31 AM PDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:12 AM PDT     2.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:00 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:25 PM PDT     5.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:56 PM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:35 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Monterey, Monterey Harbor, California, Tide feet

Point Pinos
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Tue -- 12:58 AM PDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:22 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:39 AM PDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:54 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:01 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:42 PM PDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:28 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:50 PM PDT     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:51 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Pinos, California Current, knots

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