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FXUS65 KVEF 040534 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 934 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak shortwave will push some northerly winds down the Colorado River Valley Monday, but ridging will build through the rest of the week keeping temperatures above average for much of the area. The next system by next weekend is trending to be dry as well, but could increase wind potential and cool down temperatures heading into next week.

DISCUSSION
This Week and Weekend.

A ridge of high pressure, currently off the California coast, builds into the southwestern CONUS over the next few days. A weak disturbance will push through the region on Monday, just ahead of the high and bring some gusty winds down the lower Colorado River Valley. Generally, winds will be around 10-20 mph for most areas down the river, but locally windy areas such as Laughlin and Bullhead City will see winds between 25-35 mph. No significant winds are expected elsewhere. Outside of the wind increase, no other weather impacts are expected from this disturbance. As the high builds, we will see lighter winds along with increasing temperatures. High temps Tuesday through Thursday are expected to be about 7-10 degrees above normal.

The next disturbance is progged to move through the western CONUS by Friday and Saturday. In earlier runs, this was projected to be much more robust, taking a strong southerly dive through the west and closing off. Now, clusters are showing this outcome to be below the 10th percentile, and about 75% of the grand ensemble depicts more of a quick moving open wave. This would mean a less drastic cool off and wind scenario for the region than initially thought, but 01Z NBM still shows about a 5-8 degree cool down Friday and Saturday, with sub-advisory, but gusty northerly winds Saturday as well.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...No significant impacts to the Harry Reid terminal through the next 30 hours. Typical diurnal trends with winds generally below 8 kts are expected with passing SCT/BKN clouds above 10kft throughout.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Minimal impacts expected through the next 24 hours for KVGT/KHND/KBIH/KDAG. However, for KEED/KIFP, gusty northerly winds are expected to develop early Monday morning and persist through the evening hours. KIFP gusts could gust as high as 30kts during the early afternoon. SCT/BKN clouds will prevail above 10kft.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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