Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Benns Church, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Breezy and warm today with aftn/evening gusts to 20-30 mph expected.

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered over the SE U.S. and just offshore. Also, a frontal boundary was aligned W to E from eastern IL into PA. Under a clear or mostly clear sky, temps were ranging from the upper 40s into the lower 60s.

High pressure will slide farther out to sea today, as a potent shortwave trough dives SE from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes. A cold front will approach the area today, but sfc low pressure will remain well off to our N through the day, tracking from IN into eastern PA/NW NJ by late this evening.
The pressure gradient really tightens up as this occurs, and with very warm temps and good mixing, a breezy to windy aftn is expected with gusts of 25-30 mph likely. The airmass in the lee of the Appalachians remains very dry, so any showers/storms approaching from the N and W look to dry up before reaching the CWA in the evening. High today should reach into the lower 80s for most of the region, under a mainly sunny sky (with some increase in high clouds late).

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front crosses the area late tonight into Monday afternoon, but little to no precipitation is expected. Turning rather cool Tuesday with more clouds, but little chance for measurable rainfall.

The airmass remains mixed tonight, so lows will be much warmer, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most areas. Upper troughing amplifies to our north tonight and Mon, as sfc low pressure deepens near the Canadian Maritimes on Mon. This feature will drag the cold front through the area. With the front crossing the area, breezy conditions will continue (gusts to 20-30 mph likely during the day), as winds turn to the WNW by later Mon morning in most areas (by aftn in the SE). This is a bit faster than the past few runs, so the sky will become partly to mostly sunny, and PoPs will be ~10% or less except along the coast of the eastern shore in the morning where slight chc PoPs will be maintained. Temps rise into the mid/upper 60s NW to the mid/upper 70s far SE by early Mon aftn, before falling into the upper 50s or 60s by early evening. Temps will fall into the 40s to around 50 Mon night, as winds slowly diminish.

The core of the upper low becomes cutoff over SE Canada on Tue, with a large scale shortwave forecast to drop south from the midwest to the TN Valley and Carolinas by Tue aftn/evening. It will likely start off partly/mostly sunny, but with a significant increase in clouds by late morning/aftn with very cold air aloft.
Soundings generally show a saturated layer from ~800mb to near 500mb, so would anticipate a mostly cloudy sky, and perhaps a few sprinkles or a light shower late in the day. Quite cool with highs only in the upper 50s NW to the lower to mid 60s SE.

Decreasing clouds from NNW to SSE Tue night, with lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s NNW, to the mid to upper 40s far SE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry but with below normal temperatures expected Wednesday- Thursday, with a trend back to near normal into next weekend.

- Patchy frost will be possible over the piedmont by Wed morning, with a better chance for areas of frost and near freezing temperatures across much of the area away from the immediate coast Wed night/early Thursday.

A deep upper trough (500mb height anomalies of -2 to -3 sigma)
will still be in place from Atlantic Canada SW into the SE CONUS Wed into Wed night, gradually shifting east offshore by Thu morning. At the sfc, a strong area of high pressure (>1030 mb), is forecast to drop SSE from the upper midwest Wed, becoming centered across the OH/TN Valley by Wed night, before drifting east into the local area Thu. This setup will continue to bring well below normal temperatures to the FA, with highs on Wed only rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s. There should be more sunshine on Wed, though the NE 1/2 of the CWA will tend to see SCT-BKN aftn clouds. The coolest night will likely be Wed night/Thu morning, as the sfc high becomes more favorably located near the area, with frost likely for at least the I-95 corridor and pts W, and at least possible for interior sections of SE VA/NE NC. Given the strength of the sfc high, have gone with the cooler edge of guidance, forecasting mins into the lower to mid 30s for rural areas along and W of the I-95 corridor, with upper 30s to around 40 for the east (and locally in the mid to upper 40s at the immediate coast). Continued dry and cool Thu, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s under a sunny sky and light winds. Another night potentially seeing at least patchy frost can be expected Thu night/early Fri, as the latest model runs including the ensembles and NBM are slower to push the sfc high E and off the coast. Current forecast is for lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Temperatures warm back closer to normal Fri and Sat, with highs into the mid to upper 60s to lower 70s, and lows in the upper 30s to lower 50s Fri night.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from this morning into Mon morning. Expect SKC or SCT-BKN CI through the period.
It remains dry today, but a stronger SW wind develops by this aftn, with sustained winds increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Will have wind shear in at least some of the TAFs for this evening into tonight, and there may be a few sprinkles or even a brief -SHRA at SBY early Mon.

Outlook: VFR and (mainly) dry conditions will continue through the middle of next week. Winds shift to the WNW on Mon and continue to gust to ~25 kt. NW winds prevail Tue-Wed.

MARINE
As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Relatively benign boating conditions early this morning with SW winds around 10 kt.

- An extended period of Small Craft Advisories are in effect starting this afternoon. The first of two strong cold frontal passages move through the region late tonight into Monday. A second cold front then crosses the area Tuesday night.

Latest analysis reveals 1020+mb sfc high pressure in place just offshore of the coastal Carolinas. A quasi-stationary front remains draped just north of the local waters from the Delmarva back into central PA and the eastern Great Lakes. Latest obs reflect SW flow winds across the waters averaging 10-15 kt.
Latest buoy reports showing seas lingering around 2 ft, with waves 1 ft or less in the bay, eastern VA rivers and the Currituck sound.

Low pressure crossing from the Ohio valley into the northeast will deepen later this morning through this afternoon, and will drag a strong cold front toward the area. This will in turn tighten the surface pressure gradient, allowing winds to gradually increase later this morning into the afternoon. Expect we'll see some W-SW gusts to ~20 kt in the rivers and bay later this morning, with winds increasing further to 15-20 kt this afternoon. SCA still goes into effect this afternoon for all waters, running through Monday.

The period of strongest winds this evening occur in SW winds just ahead of the frontal passage, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all marine zones. SSW winds of 20-25 kt are expected by Sunday evening into early Monday as W-SW h85 LLJ lifts into the area. The surface low to the north is forecast to slowly deepen as it exits into New England tonight. 00z CAMs continue to highlight Gale Force gust potential in a relatively narrow time window between 8p-midnight, mainly over the northern coastal waters and northern Ches Bay. In-house wind probs have increased to 50-70%, with best chances well offshore near 20NM given SW flow. Due to the short-fused, convective nature of these gusts, still believe that Special Marine Warnings are the best way to handle any short-lived gusts in excess of 34 kt rather than Gale headlines.

The front crosses the area late tonight, near or just after sunrise Monday, with winds shifting to the W and then NW post- frontal. Winds remain elevated in the 15-25 kt range through most of Monday in the post-frontal/cold advection regime, with SCAs remaining in effect through this period. Winds finally look slacken to sub-SCA levels Tuesday. However, another front crosses the waters Tuesday night, with a reinforcing shot of CAA likely prompting another round of SCAs Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cool high pressure then builds in for the mid-late week period, with more benign marine conditions prevailing.

In terms of waves/seas, Building easterly swells (5-6 second periods) and SSW wind wave ramp seas up to 4-6 ft tonight through Monday, with some potential short period wind waves ramping seas up to 6-7 ft across the nrn waters. Waves in the bay are expected to average 2-4 ft during this Sun night-Mon period. Waves/seas gradually ramp back down in offshore flow Monday night and especially Tuesday, before elevating again briefly to 3-4 ft Tuesday night and Wednesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ638-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.