Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Cruz, CA

SHORT TERM
Issued at 120 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (This evening through Monday)

Winds eased overnight but are starting to ramp again across the region but especially across the higher elevations. While winds were predominantly onshore over the last few days, this next round of wind will be offshore. Synoptically, a ridge of high pressure sits to our west over the Pacific Ocean while a positively tilted upper level trough moves into the Intermountain West. The orientation of these two features will promote North to Northeast winds across our region or offshore flow. The SFO-WMC gradient has largely been weakly positive (onshore) the last few days but is expected to become negative (offshore) and strengthen today into early tomorrow.
Current guidance has the SFO-WMC gradient peaking around -7 to -8 mb which supports gustier offshore winds. The SFO-ACV remains strong around -8 to -8.5 mb indicating good northerly flow will continue.
These winds will be strongest across the higher elevations of the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and Santa Cruz Mountains where gusts to around 50 mph and locally higher gusts up to 60 mph are expected this evening into tomorrow morning. The strongest winds are expected to occur overnight tonight through late tomorrow morning. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11PM tonight through 11AM Monday for these locations. While not as strong as across the higher elevations, winds will still be breezier across the rest of the region. Guidance currently keeps winds gusting between 25 to 35 mph (below Wind Advisory criteria) but we may see a few stronger gusts mix down into the lower elevations at the base of mountainous terrain. Winds are then expected to diminish through the remainder of the day on Monday. High temperatures remain seasonably cool today in the 70s to low 80s across the interior and 50s to 60s along the coast. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow with coastal temperatures in the 60s to low 70s and interior highs in the 70s to 80s.

Extremely dry conditions continue through midweek with elevated fire weather concerns across the interior Bay Area and Central Coast.
Daytime humidity values will be incredibly dry with the higher elevations dropping to between 10-15% today. A few fires have been reported across the interior this morning including the Pass Fire in Alameda County (Altamont Pass region). Fuels are expected to rapidly dry as strong offshore flow develops today into tomorrow which is likely to lead to an increase in grass fires. Take care while participating in any outdoor activities involving fire. Remember, one less spark, one less wildfire.

LONG TERM
Issued at 120 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)

Broad upper level troughing will push eastward by midweek with high pressure generally restrengthening over the West Coast. The center of the ridge and surface high pressure looks to be farther north closer to the PNW while a weak upper level trough lingers over SoCal and Arizona. This setup would support a return on onshore (northwest) winds but they will not be as gusty as those experienced this weekend. The surface pressure gradient will be more widespread (i.e. not as tight) as it was this weekend and it will lose upper level support with the polar jet stream shifting northwards and the tropical jet stream shifting south. While the winds are dying down, temperatures are starting to warm up. The return of ridging and high pressure will allow a warming trend to kick off this week and see a return of 80s/90s to the interior and 60s/70s along the coast.
Patchy moderate heatrisk is expected across interior, urban areas this week with temperatures running around 10-15 degrees above normal. The question is how much of a marine influence will we see this week and will it be enough to keep our coastal areas/portions of the interior cooler this week. Right now, high resolution guidance keeps a shallow (500 ft) marine layer present through mid to late week which would keep its influence (fog, cooler temps) tied to more coastal areas.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026

Strong surface high pressure over the eastern Pacific and far northern CA is resulting in a moderate to strong northerly 7.4 mb ACV-SFO pressure gradient including 2.0 mb SFO-SAC onshore pressure gradient. RDD-SAC is 4.1 mb while the surface pressure will also build over the Great Basin increasing the WMC-SFO gradient tonight and Monday morning as well. Mixing and drying within the boundary layer will result in continuing VFR. Windswept seas leading to sea spray and sea salt aerosols will continue to result in areas of reduced visibility in haze /MVFR/ near the coastline. Surface winds at the terminals ease tonight while lower level winds will increase resulting in areas of low level wind shear tonight and Monday morning. Lower level winds decrease while diurnal vertical mixing returns Monday reducing low level wind shear during the day Monday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon to mid evening. Wind decreasing tonight to 10 knots with low level wind shear tonight and Monday morning. Northwest wind strengthens by late Monday morning with a decrease in low level wind shear.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR except for areas of haze /MVFR/. West winds 15 to 25 knots, easing to 5 to 10 knots tonight and Monday morning. Low level wind shear tonight and Monday morning.

MARINE
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 955 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026

Strong surface high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the eastern Pacific this week. This will result in widespread strong and gusty northwest winds across the coastal waters. Rough seas continue through late today with up to 19 ft waves during the strongest winds, but seas will ease into the work week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 443 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026

Strong and gusty north to northwest winds continue to affect the region, shifting slightly into Sunday afternoon, and becoming north to northeast. Expect peak gusts greater than 30 mph for most areas, with around 45 to 55 mph along through gaps and passes, and across higher terrain. Daytime humidity retentions loos to stay around 10- 25% across the interior regions and higher peaks, with limited overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early Monday before diminishing. Humidities will be slow to recover into the work week as a light offshore flow will continue to affect the district.

BEACHES
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-530.

Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Monday for CAZ504-512-514-515.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Storm Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.