Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Cruz, CA

UPDATE
Issued at 724 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

The current forecast remains on track as warm and dry conditions continue to settle in. The most notable change is in the long term forecast with rain chances likely to arrive on Thursday, potentially spilling into Friday.

Navarrete

SHORT TERM
Issued at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026 (This evening through Saturday night)

High pressure building in from the Eastern Pacific continues to dominate our weather pattern across the Bay Area and north Central Coast. As such, afternoon temperatures are forecast to be some 2-11 deg F above normal through the remainder of the upcoming weekend. Morning minimum temperatures will be similarly warm.
Thus, afternoon maximum forecast temperatures will be in the mid- to-upper 60s with interior valleys reaching the low-to-mid 70s.
The greatest potential for reaching 80 deg F will be across the interior Central Coast.

Please see the BEACHES section of the AFD below for more on the Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory.

LONG TERM
Issued at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)

On Sunday, a weakening frontal boundary is forecast to move into Northern California and brush the North Bay Sunday afternoon and evening. However, as the boundary continues to weaken, little to no rainfall is expected. That said, a shallow marine layer is forecast to return. A slight cool down is expected across the North Bay Sunday and Monday, however temperatures still will remain above seasonal averages. Either weak ridging or zonal flow aloft will maintain dry weather conditions and warm temperatures through at least Wednesday.

Thursday and beyond, expecting the mid/upper level trough to deepen along or off of the West Coast. This will result in the potential for unsettled weather conditions to return to the region. The Climate Prediction Center's 6 to 10 Day Outlook (12th - 16th) has a 65% to 80% probability of greater than normal precipitation.
It's still to far out in time given the model uncertainty late next week and beyond, yet be prepared for rain to return to the region!

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 911 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

Currently VFR with stratus offshore. Moderate to high confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Warmer and drier conditions with offshore flow will limit fog/stratus potential overnight. Low to moderate confidence on sub-VFR conditions developing at HAF and STS overnight, likely IFR/LIFR between 10Z and 16Z.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 911 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail, with the bays remaining more sheltered. Rough ten foot seas will create hazardous conditions for small craft across the inner and outer waters. Hazardous conditions will likely continue into next week as seas build to become very rough Sunday night into Monday before returning to rough seas by Tuesday.

BEACHES
Issued at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday as long period (14-18 second)
westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event.
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.