Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:50PM Monday December 9, 2019 8:25 AM EST (13:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:22PMMoonset 4:18AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 639 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain this morning, then a chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
ANZ600 639 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Weak low pressure tracks up the coast this morning. A stronger area of low pressure tracks across the great lakes region Monday into Tuesday, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period with low pressure over the southeast states.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton CDP, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 091143 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 643 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure moves off the Delmarva Peninsula today. Strong low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes later today and into eastern Canada Tuesday. The trailing strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. High pressure returns late Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 640 AM EST Monday .

Latest MSAS has the sfc low and assctd pcpn ivof the Ches Bay and is progged to lift ne off the Delmarva peninsula today. Radar trends have shown the steady rain with systm having shifted offshore (even some thunder noted in some convective cells offshore). Abundant low level moisture along with an apprchg s/w energy has resulted in areas of rain/drizzle and fog to quickly develop west of the Ches Bay where it rained last nite. Have issued a SPS to cover this thru the morning commute.

Models continue to show the energy from the mid level impulse tracking nne of the area today with its pcpn shield tracking across the nrn half of the local area as the day progresses. This also results in an insitu-wedge developing across the nwrn zones given the fact that it did not rain there last nite. Pcpn becomes more spotty in nature across the e-se with any shwr chc tapering off this aftrn. Temps tricky, but milder than recent days. Expect highs to range fromthe low-mid 50s nw to the upr 60s se where BINOVC allows for some partial late day sun.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 335 AM EST Monday .

Little if any temp drop tonight due to the SW flow and WAA in place ahead of the cold front apprchg the mts. Little support for pcpn, but enuf lingering moisture exists for a few shwrs across the north. Looks like a cloudy and mild nite with more low stratus than fog. Lows in the 50s to near 60 se.

Tues to the the "in btwn" day with not much occuring until the moisture ahead of the apprchg cold front enters the fa during the aftrn. It starts off cloudy and mild with little support for any pcpn thru 18Z. Clouds break up a bit across the se while shwrs spread east of the mts by late aftrn. Unseasonably warm along with a breezy sw wind. Tuff call on whether the nwrn most zones erode the wedge completely so for now will hold temps in the low-mid 60s there. Otw, temps rise to arnd 70 east of I95 with mid 70s across the se. See CLI section below for record high temps.

The cold front crosses the area Tues night with likely/categorical PoPs through 12z. Models now showing the potential for a pcpn type issue arnd 12Z Wed across the nrn most zones. While the thicknesses crash as the colder air rapidly follows the fropa, sfc and wet bulb temps remain above freezing. Much like the mid Nov event, pcpn intensity will likely determine whether and how much wet snow can mix in with the rain. Thus, adjusted the grids a bit to reflect a svrl hr prd (09Z-15Z) Wed for a rain/wet snow mix. For now, think this occurs btwn 09Z-12Z across Louisa/Fluvanna then btwn 12Z-15Z from Louisa ne to nrn Carolina to Dorchester. No accumls expected attm. Lows Tue nite mid 30s nrn zones to low-mid 40s srn zones.

Likely PoPs Wed morning with decreasing PoPs west to east Wed aftrn as the cold front moves offshore. In fact, wrn zones will likely become ot sunny late. Not much rise in temps given the clouds and CAA. Highs in 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Sunday .

Strong high pressure over the upper Midwest will build into the region Wednesday night. Strong cold advection on northwesterly winds will lead to overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 20s NW, mid to upper 20s for the I-95 corridor, and upper 20s and low 30s for SE VA and NE NC. The aforementioned surface high will become centered over/just north of the local area on Thursday with decreasing clouds and winds. Daytime high temperatures will only make it into the upper 30s and low 40s on Thursday. Models have come into much better agreement and all now keep the area dry on Thursday and Thursday night. Chilly overnight lows range from the low 20s NW to upper 30s SE.

Surface high pressure continues its eastward migration on Friday but will still extend ridging to the SW along and east of the higher terrain. GFS/ECMWF solutions diverge regarding timing for the expected wet period late week into the weekend with the GFS around 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. Will increase PoPs slowly from the south/southwest during the day on Friday but the bulk of the precip is expected to fall Friday night into Saturday as low pressure lifts northward across the region. Given the slower timing, high pressure will have moved well away from the favored area to supply cold/dry air to the region and concerns for mixed precipitation have decreased. High temps on Friday range from the low 40s NW, close to 50 degrees for the Richmond metro, and low to mid 50s for areas east of I-95. Not looking particularly cold behind the weekend system either, highs in the 50s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 640 AM EST Monday .

Low pressure ivof the Ches Bay this morning tracks nne along then off the Delmarva today. IFR CIGS/VSBYS continue in light rain/drizzle and fog to start off the forecast period as abundant moisture remains ahead af an upr lvl systm apprchs from the west. Expect improving conditions at PHF/ORF/ECG by late morning or erly aftrn but the clow clouds and sporatic pcpn continues at both RIC/SBY for most of the daylight hrs. LGT/VRBL winds become SW this aftrn. The pcpn tapers off and ends across the area tonite.

OUTLOOK . The area will be largely rain free late tonite into Tue morning. with localized reductions in CIGS/VSBYS tonite due to areas of fog/stratus. Periods of lower CIGS/VSBYS in both rain/shwrs are likely Tues aftn through Wed morning, as low pressure tracks well to our NW. A trailing cold front will cross the area Tues night. High pressure builds into the area for Wednesday/Thursday.

MARINE. As of 335 AM EST Monday .

Latest analysis shows a warm front that extends northward and parallels the coastal waters. Winds across the coastal waters have already turned S/SE 15-20 kts, while winds across the bay on the other side of the front are still northerly 10-15 kts. Seas are 3-6 ft in the southern coastal waters and 3-4 ft in the northern coastal waters. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft. The front will continue to advance north and a bit further inland today. Winds over the bay should become southerly this morning as a result. The increasing S/SW flow should bring winds in the bay and southern James up to 15- 20 kts by late Monday night. Winds over the coastal waters will remain S/SW 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. Waves in the bay will build to 2-3 ft by Monday night with around 4 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas will continue to build and by late Monday night will be 5-8 ft. SCA is now in effect for the coastal waters, and SCA will be issued for the Bay, lower James, and Currituck sound for later tonight through about 18Z Tuesday. Confidence is lower for SCA on the rivers outside of the lower James, so will leave them out for now.

With very warm conditions Tuesday during the day ahead of an approaching cold front, winds over the cold waters will likely diminish a bit (though seas on the coast will remain at or above 5 ft). SCA conditions likely for all zones Tue night/Wed AM as colder air moves in from the North. Potential for stronger winds Wednesday night into Thursday as a secondary cold surge arrives with strong high pressure building in from the North while low pressure lingers over the SE CONUS. Seas will also remain elevated through this period.

CLIMATE. Record highs for 12/10:

RIC . 79 in 2007 ORF . 78 in 2007 SBY . 73 in 1966 ECG . 78 in 2007

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . MPR MARINE . CMF CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi55 min SW 1.9 G 4.1
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi61 min 49°F1020.3 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi55 min S 4.1 G 5.1
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi55 min S 5.1 G 5.1 49°F 1020.4 hPa
44087 15 mi25 min 49°F2 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi61 min S 2.9 G 4.1 50°F 50°F1020.4 hPa
44072 18 mi35 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 47°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi55 min W 4.1 G 5.1 47°F 48°F1020.2 hPa
44064 18 mi35 min S 7.8 G 9.7 49°F 1020.4 hPa
CHBV2 19 mi61 min S 5.1 G 7 49°F 1019.4 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi55 min WSW 6 G 7 47°F 1021 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi55 min S 1.9 G 4.1 49°F 1020.9 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 25 mi31 min 45°F 1020.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi55 min S 6 G 7
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 34 mi175 min WSW 1 45°F 1021 hPa45°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi25 min 50°F6 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi55 min S 9.9 G 9.9 1021 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi86 minS 35.00 miFog/Mist49°F48°F97%1021 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi89 minS 310.00 miOvercast47°F47°F100%1021.3 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi31 minSSE 40.25 miFog49°F46°F90%1019.9 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi34 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F48°F89%1020.4 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi89 minS 35.00 miFog/Mist48°F45°F92%1020.3 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi30 minN 010.00 miOvercast49°F48°F97%1021 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi30 minSSE 40.50 miFog48°F47°F100%1021 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi29 minSSE 52.00 miFog/Mist51°F50°F96%1020.9 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi30 minN 00.15 miOvercast48°F48°F100%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNGU

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E9E8E6E11E10E10NE6E3NE3CalmN3N3NE4NE6NE4CalmS5W4NW3CalmSE4S3S5
1 day agoNE14
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2 days agoS5SW6SW9SW7SW5SW7SW7SW7SW6S6SW8SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:45 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:18 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:36 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:26 PM EST     2.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.40.91.52.12.62.82.72.31.81.20.60.30.30.511.62.12.32.321.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:16 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM EST     0.87 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:22 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:46 PM EST     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:15 PM EST     0.61 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-1-0.6-0.10.40.80.90.80.50.2-0.3-0.8-1-1.1-0.9-0.5-00.40.60.50.3-0-0.5-0.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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