Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrollton, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Mild temperatures continue through Wednesday.

2) Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail Wednesday night through Saturday.

3) Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread rainfall. The chances for any wintry mix remain quite low at this time.

DISCUSSION
As of 210 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild temperatures continue through Wednesday.

High pressure is centered over the FL Peninsula and Bahamas this afternoon. To our W/NW, a cold front extends from interior portions of New England southwestward through the OH/TN Valley and into the southern Plains. NW flow aloft prevails across the Mid-Atlantic with a SSW-NNE ridge axis W of the region. As expected, milder temperatures have developed under a mostly sunny sky, ranging from the mid-upper 40s N to mid-upper 50s/around 60F S. The temps across the N are a bit cooler than forecast, potentially due to lingering ice/snow cover up that way. Either way, expect temps to warm at least a few more degrees into at least the 50s W of the Chesapeake Bay with lower 60s across the SW. Cooler waters on the Chesapeake Bay will likely keep the Eastern Shore in the 40s.

That cold front will approach the area tonight and push through in the early morning hours. Overnight temps generally range through the 40s, with 30s on the Eastern Shore. The initial post-frontal CAA will be rather weak, but the latest CAMs depict scattered showers developing as the front slides S. While moisture is rather limited, precip likely becomes a bit more organized as the front approaches far srn VA and NE NC. Therefore, the highest confidence in showers (30-50% PoPs) is in these areas. Winds become NW later Wednesday morning and afternoon. Despite being post-frontal, downslope flow should allow for another mild day with high temps in the mid-upper 50s to lower 60s, except again in the 40s on the Eastern Shore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail Wednesday night through Saturday.

Stronger CAA arrives Wednesday night bringing a return to below average temperatures to close out the week. Temperatures drop back to 5-10F below average Thursday/Friday, and then trending back to around to just above average by Saturday. This will support highs mainly in the upper 30s/lower 40s N to upper 40s/around 50F SW, with morning lows in the 20s Thursday/Friday, then lower to mid 50s by Saturday after a chilly start to the day with morning lows in the 20s. EPS/GEFS show PW anomalies of 40-60% of normal Thursday/Friday then 50-70% of normal by Saturday, so dry conditions prevail during this time period.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread rainfall. The chances for any wintry mix remain quite low at this time.

A robust southern stream trough will move onshore the west coast late this week. Low pressure will then develop across the Southern Plains Saturday as sfc high pressure gets further shunted offshore of the Southeast coast. Rain continues to be the favored precipitation type for the majority of the area with this system, though deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show significant run-to-run variability. For example, the 12 EPS shows significant spatial and temporal variability with regard to the low placement as it approaches and crosses our area. This would also suggest uncertainty in QPF amounts and placement. Overall, the mean and median QPF details remain relatively unchanged from the previous forecast with 50th percentile QPF generally 0.5- 0.75", though there are again appreciable differences among the ensemble suites (the GEFS is the lowest of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS) and large spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles. While the chance for wintry precip remains rather quite low, there are non-zero probs for some sort of snow or wintry mix at precip onset Sunday morning, particularly across the N and NW portions of the area. The 06z EPS and deterministic ECMWF appeared to be an outlier compared to the larger grand ensemble in showing more aggressive winter wx chances. Clouds and rainfall should hold temperatures in the mid/upper 40s for much of the area Sunday, with lower to mid 50s SE. Precip should taper off by later Monday morning, with dry conditions favored later Monday into next Tuesday. Additionally, there is no CAA behind this system and temperatures are expected to moderate above average by early next week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 640 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail to start the 00z TAD period. A cold front will approach the region late tonight, bringing a period of LLWS as a 40-45 kt LLJ passes overhead. Additionally, expect CIGs to gradually lower and clouds to thicken. The highest confidence in any shower activity is across far SE VA and NE NC, mainly from 09z-12z for SBY and the VA terminals and from 11z-15 for NE NC (and ECG). Don't expect much VSBY restrictions from these showers as rates should be on the lighter side. A brief period of MVFR (and even high- end IFR) CIGs are possible at PHF/ORF and most likely at ECG from 15z-17z Wed. ~10 kt WSW winds tonight shift to the NW behind the front later Wed morning.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday with high pressure prevailing.
Widespread precip is possible by Sunday into early Monday with flight restrictions probable.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected tonight and Wednesday.

- A cold front crosses the area late tonight into Wednesday with potential for marginal SCA conditions Wednesday night.

High pressure has moved offshore ahead of the next cold front that stretches SW from parent low pressure centered north of the Great Lakes. Winds are generally S 5-10 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Flow becomes SW and increases to ~15 kt late this evening into the overnight ahead of the front. A brief period of marginal SCA winds is possible, mainly across the southern Ches Bay tonight but local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds peak at only around 20%. The front crosses the waters from N to S Wednesday morning with winds becoming W then NW 10-15 kt behind the boundary. Substantial cold advection and stronger winds still appear to hold off until Wednesday evening into Thursday. Given this threat is still over 24 hours+ away with some details to resolve, will refrain from issuing any headlines with this forecast. At this time, it appears that SCA conditions will be favored in the Chesapeake Bay and perhaps the lower James and Currituck Sound (winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt) and the southern coastal waters (mainly for seas 4-5 ft and gusts 25+ kt). However, given the favorable NW wind direction, the upper rivers may see a period of SCA conditions early Thursday AM as well. The latest guidance continues to show the potential for a stronger system to impact the region this weekend but considerable spread remains with respect to when/where the low forms and subsequently tracks. The consensus of the 12z guidance favors benign marine weather Friday and Saturday with low pressure potentially impacting the region Sunday into Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.