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FXUS63 KPAH 071224 AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 624 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will trend well above normal for the end of the week and start of the weekend.

- Breezy conditions expected with gusts to 25-35 mph are forecast from Thursday through Saturday.

- Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are most likely across western Kentucky into southwest Indiana with the heaviest rains occurring Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

- Locations in southeast Missouri into southern Illinois may see lighter rainfall totals around an inch or less Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

A brief upper-level ridge will slide through the Quad State area today, allowing for dry conditions throughout the day. MOisture will be limited for much of the day; however, a ribbon of deeper moisture will pass through the area from west to east late this afternoon into this evening. No real impacts expected from this feature; however, there will be a noted increase in cloud cover for that time period. Gradient winds will increase to around 15 to 20 kts from the south today. While mixing will not be too deep thanks to a temperature inversion, it will likely be deep enough to reach into stronger winds just off the surface. That would allow winds to gust as high as 30 mph this afternoon. High temperatures will push into the upper 50s to low 60s, which is about 10 degrees above normal!

The greatest time period of concern will be late Friday night through Saturday. A low pressure system is expected to eject out of the southern Plains states Friday afternoon before lifting northeastward into southern Wisconsin by 12Z Saturday. This low is expected to intensify as an upper-level low digs southeastward through the northern Plains. A cold front will extend south from the low to the Gulf Coast as the front passes quickly through the Quad State area Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The better moisture starts being drawn northward as the front departs the Quad State area especially toward Saturday evening. This would place the heavier rainfall axis across or just east of the Pennyrile into southwest Indiana. Instability looks to be fairly weak across western KY and southeast MO; however, there may be enough to allow for some strong to severe storms. This will be largely due to the very strong wind fields late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. In fact 0-6km shear values are progged to be around 40 to 50 kts! It wouldn't take much to mix down some of the strongest winds, again leading to the Marginal Risk outlined by the SPC.
This does appear to be a fairly low risk overall, but not completely out of the question, closest to the Arkansas and Tennessee borders.

Heavy downpours are expected with any convection that occurs Saturday into Saturday night as PWAT values push upwards of 175% of normal across portions of western KY into southwest IN. For comparison, that would be roughly an inch to inch and a half.
Probabilistic guidance shows about a 30% to 40% chance of seeing an inch or more over southeast MO into southern IL; however, those values jump up to around a 60% chance of seeing an inch or more over western KY into southwest IN. This would generally limit the overall flooding threat, but the WPC has outlined portions of west KY into southwest IN in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.

The bulk of the system/moisture will depart to the east of the area by Sunday morning with the upper trough axis swinging through by early afternoon. This will set the stage for continued troughing through the day Monday. Temperatures will cool below normal to start the week with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the 20s to around 30! Zonal to somewhat troughed flow will linger through the middle of the week as temperatures begin to moderate. A lack of an influx of moisture will keep mainly dry conditions in place!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 511 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

The main concern this TAF issuance will be the gusty south winds today, reaching as high as 25 kts at times. Tonight, the focus will lean more toward LLWS as mixing decreases and stronger winds linger just above the surface, due to a temperatures inversion. Otherwise, not impacts to visibility or ceilings and TAFs are expected to remain VFR.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

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Paducah, KY,