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FXUS63 KPAH 022314 AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 514 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- Fog will be possible again tonight along with light rain

- Two clipper systems Monday and Tuesday bring more light rain chances

- A mostly dry week with seasonal temperatures is expected after that with hints of a more organized storm system at the end of next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 117 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

An upper trough situated in the lee of the Rockies is leading to broad southwesterly flow aloft. A surface front just to the southeast of the region lies parallel to that flow and is stalled and perhaps even retreating northwestward a bit. This should continue a what you see is what you get type day across the area with temperatures struggling to move out of the 40s amid fairly thick low level cloud cover. A 500mb shortwave moves overhead in the overnight hours and will bring a chance of rain mainly over the northern half of the area tonight. Given the cloud cover and residual low-level moisture fog will be possible again tonight. Dense fog is possible and another advisory isn't out of the question tonight. A weak surface low will pass to the north tonight giving us a fairly weak frontal passage. There will be some cold-advection but increased sunshine will probably result in a warmer day overall on Sunday.

A couple of weak clipper systems move through Monday and Tuesday. Some rain will likely wrap into these systems but the main impacts will probably be a bit of cloud cover and a shot of slightly cooler air.

Thursday into Friday low-level flow shifts more southerly and we get a couple days of warmer temperatures and surface return flow. Dewpoints creep into the mid 50s to near 60s by the end of the day Friday. 12z GFS/ECMWF are then consistent with a potent upper trough approaching the area by Saturday. There isn't much run-to-run continuity but the raw solution would suggest some thunder potential and would be the kind of synoptic-scale system to keep an eye on for severe potential. At this point though one run at that range isn't worth too much concern.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 510 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Low clouds continue this evening and overnight as the whole area will continue to be socked in till tomorrow afternoon and evening when we will see some clearing. Some models are showing fog forming around midnight while others have nothing at all.
Given the amount of cloud cover, confidence is lower in fog formation. Winds remain fairly light until tomorrow afternoon when they will pick up out of the west and southwest.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

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Paducah, KY,