DISCUSSION
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

High and mid level clouds marching in from the southwest mark a robust increase in column moisture this afternoon. PWAT values are rising from around 1.5 to nearly 2.0 inches from north to south across the CWA We are approaching/exceeding convective temperature in the southern half of the area with about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE amid mid 70s dewpoints. Shear is quite weak however and updrafts so far have struggled to maintain. A cell or two may tap fully into the available instability and present a brief downburst threat with sfc-700mb theta-e around 20C.
Storm motion is slow and cells that persist will also produce a heavy rain/localized flooding risk. The upper level pattern is neutral and with no real forcing the activity should mostly be diurnally driven and start to diminish by late this afternoon or just after sunset.

Tomorrow a trough/upper closed low begins to work closer to the area. Lower level flow increases a bit and column moisture richens and deepens further. GFS/NAM PWAT values increase to around 2.1 to 2.2 inches. Models are a little stingy with precip but with the depth of moisture and some lift really expect we will have fairly widespread coverage. Column shear gets a little better, not great, tomorrow and may carry a little bit of a severe weather risk with it as well although shear may still be too low to allow for much storm organization. Will need to watch for heavy rainfall/flooding but can't pinpoint an area to highlight really for a flash flood watch. The higher convective potential will remain through Sunday as the upper trough swings over the region. Think the best chance for precip will be Sat PM into Sun AM and massaged the NBM pops a little to try to reflect this. Very heavy rain and localized flooding will remain a concern.

Once this system clears out we get into more of a northwest flow regime aloft. 500mb heights increase to 592-596dm with sfc dewpoints in the mid to perhaps upper 70s. The signal still looks like a lot of heat and humidity with MCS/QLCS mixed in in the afternoon and evening. Suspect we will need heat advisories or perhaps heat warnings during this period with a risk of storms/flooding but it will be difficult to pin down specifics until things get a little closer.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The main concerns in this TAF issuance will be the potential for MVFR fog development overnight into Saturday morning and then the potential for isolated afternoon showers and storms. Overall confidence and coverage for storms is low enough to leave out of this issuance, but may be needed with later updates.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.