Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:43AM||Sunset 7:08PM||Thursday September 16, 2021 2:35 PM CDT (19:35 UTC)||Moonrise 4:02PM||Moonset 12:47AM||Illumination 77%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Puxico, MOHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KPAH 161722 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1222 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021
UPDATE. Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021
For aviation section only.
UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021
Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.
SHORT TERM. (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021
Low level stratus deck is slowly developing/progressing westward across west Kentucky early this morning. With low level moisture still in place behind the washed out front to our south, this stratus will continue to plague primarily west Kentucky into the morning hours, before gradually eroding by later morning. Some patchy fog, perhaps locally dense, will also be a concern through 13- 14z time frame.
Can't completely rule out a stray shower or storm along the TN border later this afternoon where some better moisture is lingering. Otherwise, today will be a dry day as weak high pressure builds in at the surface and aloft. The low levels remain rather sticky though, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
While much of Friday and Saturday may end up dry for most of us, our confidence level is average at best regarding our convective chances. Model disagreement continues regarding the northward extent of the deeper tropical moisture. The GFS and its ensemble have shifted to a wetter solution, while the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles still suggest a mostly dry period with the bulk of the moisture/ convection to our south. NBM seems to be siding more with the GFS, particularly for Saturday. For now, have nudged PoPs upwards into the low chance category for west Kentucky and far southeast Missouri.
High temperatures have been trimmed back a few degrees due to the possibility of more cloud cover for Friday and Saturday. Generally in the mid 80s the next 3 days. Seasonably high humidity levels will remain in place through the period, helping to keeping our overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM. (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021
Generally followed a blend of the 12z/18z ECENS and 12z/00z GEFS for the forecast. Upper level ridging will remain over the southeast and east coast as will surface high pressure over the east 1/3 of the nation. An upper level trof is forecast to move across the northern tier of states. For our area, a broad upper trof will emerge from the western Gulf States, lifting northeast toward the area Sunday through Monday before losing definition by Monday night into Tuesday as the aforementioned northern states trof moves east over the Plains. It's pretty remarkable how different the 00z ECMWF is from the 12z prior deterministic run. It went from a closed low solution over the north central Plains to a progressive trof, fundamentally changing its forecast for our area. The GFS is more progressive with the trof as well.
For Sunday through Monday, a surge of moisture with the aforementioned trof approaching from the southwest will result in an increasing chance of showers and a few thunderstorms (spreading north across the region).
Tuesday through late Wednesday is when our confidence lowers considerably with respect to the chance of showers and storms, given the deterministic guidance is notably faster than the means from the GEFS and ECENS with the northern U.S. trof. We removed any likely mention (PoP 55 or greater) in the long term, and lowered PoPs from the NBM for Wednesday through Wednesday night, given lowering confidence with time, and the progressive look to the overall mean mid tropospheric pattern. A front should eventually pass through by mid week (sometime from as early as late Tuesday to possibly Wednesday). Best PoPs for convection will likely be with the front. We stayed close to the NBM for temperatures given the degree of uncertainty in the PoPs. They should lower with time, but not be too far from normal.
AVIATION. Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021
MVFR cigs will hang on at most sites (except KMVN where skies have cleared) much of the afternoon, then should clear our by 22-00z. Winds will be light east to northeast.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. MO . None. IN . None. KY . None.
UPDATE . GM SHORT TERM . SP LONG TERM . 08 AVIATION . GM
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|Poplar Bluff, Poplar Bluff Municipal Airport, MO||20 mi||42 min||ENE 6||8.00 mi||A Few Clouds||82°F||69°F||65%||1015.3 hPa|
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Wind History from POF (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W||S||S||S||S||S||S||Calm||S||Calm||Calm||S||Calm||Calm||S||Calm||SE||NE||NE||E||NE|
|2 days ago||S||S|
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