Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:20AM||Sunset 6:03PM||Monday March 8, 2021 10:11 AM CST (16:11 UTC)||Moonrise 3:36AM||Moonset 1:14PM||Illumination 25%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Puxico, MOHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KPAH 081103 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 503 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021
UPDATE. Issued at 459 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021
Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.
SHORT TERM. (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021
Little change in the short term forecast from previous package. With surface high pressure centered southeast of us, and low pressure developing to our west/northwest, the pressure gradient will continue to tighten across the area each day through Wednesday. This will result in strengthening SSW winds. By Wednesday, sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 35 mph appear likely. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts approach Wind Advisory criteria (40 mph) in our west/northwest counties.
High temperatures continue to outperform the NBM values, so riding with the 75th percentile again today and Tuesday. Decided to side with somewhat lower guidance for Wednesday, due to increased cloud cover. This leads to readings ranging from 65 to 70 through the short term.
Heightened fire weather conditions will persist. Decided to go with the NBM 25th percentile for dewpoints the next 36 hours, which is actually a bit lower than CONSMOS. This translates into our lowest RH values today, with rising values Tuesday and even moreso Wednesday. So this will be the exact opposite of the winds, which will increase each subsequent day.
LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 235 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021
The trending toward a drier mid week extends into Wednesday night now, and potentially Thursday; the first half of Thursday moreso. The models continue really having a difficult time with the evolution of the Southwest U.S. energy and with respect to that, the strength and eventual breakdown of the Gulf and Bermuda highs. As good as anything has been the Plume data, and it continues showing a later and later increase in pops. Like we've done all along, better pops appear to tie into the actual boundary itself. We'll stay away from the higher PPI06 usage til the front enters the picture, which should be sometime later Thursday but esp Thursday night-Friday time frames. We say 'enter the picture', bc the trend to wobble it to about the Ohio River, then maybe surge it back to the north a little with warm sectoring is still there. The synoptics driving this oscillation are still too much in question to get very specific on timing, so we again like the Plume data painting an overall increase in qpf/pops as we head into/thru the weekend. Ultimately, we look at a system passage, probably sometime late weekend the way it looks now, before pops really draw down. This is not to say there won't be pauses between waves, esp depending upon where exactly the boundary eventually sets up before the final push thru of the system; could be a north-south thing, we'll not get specific/fancy with that either, just accepting the NBM's mean approach.
Thunder/better rain chances early appear tied to the boundary's intro-- that means late Thursday pm, Thursday night, maybe Friday. 00Z deterministic guidance (esp GFS) suggests instability is lost by then as we warm sector in the reset, but this has changed day to day, we'll not argue the NBM's want to throw a little back in the Ozarks Friday night, as that's the general direction it (instability field/thunder chance) shifts anyway.
Heaviest rain potential from the Ensembles standard deviations, percentile fields, and return intervals still suggest with the boundary intro Thursday PM-Thursday night. We notice the pertinent numbers increasing a little, but not like the last heavy rain event just yet; it's something to keep our eyes on as a potential messaging need.
Last but not least, winds Thursday still look good for gusts pushing 30 mph range.
AVIATION. Issued at 459 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021
VFR conditions. SSW winds will develop this morning and become sustained around 10-12 kts with gusts of 15-18 kts through the day. Winds become light southerly after sunset. Skies will be clear other than a few high clouds from time to time.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. MO . None. IN . None. KY . None.
UPDATE . SP SHORT TERM . SP LONG TERM . DH AVIATION . SP
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|Poplar Bluff, Poplar Bluff Municipal Airport, MO||20 mi||18 min||SSW 8||10.00 mi||Fair||55°F||38°F||53%||1033.2 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KPOF
Wind History from POF (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N||Calm||S||SE||S||S||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SW|
|2 days ago||NE||NE||NE|
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