Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Puxico, MO
May 6, 2024 10:16 PM CDT (03:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM Moonset 5:33 PM |
FXUS63 KPAH 062343 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 643 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday night. Severe storms are possible early Tuesday morning and again later in the day and evening.
- A significant severe thunderstorm outbreak is appearing increasingly likely for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
- Warm and humid conditions through Wednesday, then a cooler spring- like airmass spreads across the region Thursday through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
A mid level disturbance moving across the TN Valley region is leading to isolated-scattered convection this afternoon. The most concentrated lightning activity is south of us in TN, where the better instability exists. This is also where 30-35 kts of 0-6km shear resides. As this wave departs to our east, mainly dry conditions are expected this evening into early overnight. Having said this, there are a few models that generate some isolated convection within a zone of warm advection as the main instability/higher moisture axis lifts north across the area late this evening and overnight. Maintained slight PoPs for this possibility. After 09z most guidance depicts a line of thunderstorms to move into our area from the west. While this line should be in a weakening state into the early-mid morning, it could pose some severe risk initially across our western counties. A plume of 1000 j/kg CAPE and increasing deep layer shear in excess of 40 kts will spread into southeast Missouri by 10z. So wouldn't be surprised to see some 50-60 mph gusts for a few hours before the line weakens further.
Recovery on Tuesday is somewhat dependent on how long the morning convection lingers. Most guidance suggests clearing takes place and a rather potent environment develops during the afternoon with 2500- 3000 j/kg mixed layer CAPE, dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70, and 0-6km shear of 50+ kts. A mid level jet max will be over northern Illinois late in the day, with the most favored corridor for storm development further northeast of our region across Indiana and Ohio. This is where an SPC Day 2 Enhanced risk exists. The threat is more conditional across our area, but the parameter space in place suggests that all severe hazards would be possible if storms develop. The most likely time for this to occur appears to be later in the afternoon and into the evening (perhaps a 21z Tue-05z Wed period). The threat likely be greatest east of the Mississippi River, and potentially more focused across southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. The SPC Day 2 slight risk may need to be upgraded for part of this area, but there is a good amount of uncertainty still with this period.
After a dry period overnight Tuesday, our attention turns to an even more volatile situation unfolding on Wednesday. Guidance continues to suggest a very favorable environment will exist across the Ohio Valley that may lead to a significant severe thunderstorm outbreak including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some of which may be strong). Instability will be very high, at least 3000 j/kg and potential at around 4000 j/kg. Dewpoints will be in at least the low 70s and deep layer shear will be in excess of 50 kts.
The top 2 CIPS analogs for Wednesday's event are two of our more significant May events in the past 20 years: May 8, 2009 derecho (80- 100 mph winds) and May 6, 2003 tornado outbreak that resulted in 21 tornadoes in our cwa. SPC currently has a large Enhanced risk for Day 3 and there's a decent chance that portions of this may be upgraded as the event grows closer. There are some timing differences with some guidance suggesting the primary convection remaining north of our cwa near the sfc low in LSX/ILX areas until after 00z and then convection filling in along the front during the evening across our area. Another possibility is that convection fires in Missouri earlier in the day and moves in by midday or early afternoon. We are still too far out in time to get too specific with exact timing, but anytime in the afternoon and evening looks to be in play.
Cooler and drier air moves into the region late week, with highs only forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s by Friday (after low to mid 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday). Some moderation back into the 70s is anticipated over the weekend. Upper level troughing digging across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley may lead to some rain chances returning by Saturday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
A couple showers or isolated storms are possible this evening; however, the main impact to the TAF sites would likely arrive very late tonight into early Tuesday morning. This will be a result of a decaying line of showers and storms arriving from the west. Kept a tempo group in for each site around the most likely time period. Another break in the precip can be expected during the afternoon before additional storms develop Tuesday evening. It will be fairly breezy Tuesday with gusts reaching around 25 to 30 kts.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 643 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday night. Severe storms are possible early Tuesday morning and again later in the day and evening.
- A significant severe thunderstorm outbreak is appearing increasingly likely for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
- Warm and humid conditions through Wednesday, then a cooler spring- like airmass spreads across the region Thursday through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
A mid level disturbance moving across the TN Valley region is leading to isolated-scattered convection this afternoon. The most concentrated lightning activity is south of us in TN, where the better instability exists. This is also where 30-35 kts of 0-6km shear resides. As this wave departs to our east, mainly dry conditions are expected this evening into early overnight. Having said this, there are a few models that generate some isolated convection within a zone of warm advection as the main instability/higher moisture axis lifts north across the area late this evening and overnight. Maintained slight PoPs for this possibility. After 09z most guidance depicts a line of thunderstorms to move into our area from the west. While this line should be in a weakening state into the early-mid morning, it could pose some severe risk initially across our western counties. A plume of 1000 j/kg CAPE and increasing deep layer shear in excess of 40 kts will spread into southeast Missouri by 10z. So wouldn't be surprised to see some 50-60 mph gusts for a few hours before the line weakens further.
Recovery on Tuesday is somewhat dependent on how long the morning convection lingers. Most guidance suggests clearing takes place and a rather potent environment develops during the afternoon with 2500- 3000 j/kg mixed layer CAPE, dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70, and 0-6km shear of 50+ kts. A mid level jet max will be over northern Illinois late in the day, with the most favored corridor for storm development further northeast of our region across Indiana and Ohio. This is where an SPC Day 2 Enhanced risk exists. The threat is more conditional across our area, but the parameter space in place suggests that all severe hazards would be possible if storms develop. The most likely time for this to occur appears to be later in the afternoon and into the evening (perhaps a 21z Tue-05z Wed period). The threat likely be greatest east of the Mississippi River, and potentially more focused across southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. The SPC Day 2 slight risk may need to be upgraded for part of this area, but there is a good amount of uncertainty still with this period.
After a dry period overnight Tuesday, our attention turns to an even more volatile situation unfolding on Wednesday. Guidance continues to suggest a very favorable environment will exist across the Ohio Valley that may lead to a significant severe thunderstorm outbreak including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some of which may be strong). Instability will be very high, at least 3000 j/kg and potential at around 4000 j/kg. Dewpoints will be in at least the low 70s and deep layer shear will be in excess of 50 kts.
The top 2 CIPS analogs for Wednesday's event are two of our more significant May events in the past 20 years: May 8, 2009 derecho (80- 100 mph winds) and May 6, 2003 tornado outbreak that resulted in 21 tornadoes in our cwa. SPC currently has a large Enhanced risk for Day 3 and there's a decent chance that portions of this may be upgraded as the event grows closer. There are some timing differences with some guidance suggesting the primary convection remaining north of our cwa near the sfc low in LSX/ILX areas until after 00z and then convection filling in along the front during the evening across our area. Another possibility is that convection fires in Missouri earlier in the day and moves in by midday or early afternoon. We are still too far out in time to get too specific with exact timing, but anytime in the afternoon and evening looks to be in play.
Cooler and drier air moves into the region late week, with highs only forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s by Friday (after low to mid 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday). Some moderation back into the 70s is anticipated over the weekend. Upper level troughing digging across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley may lead to some rain chances returning by Saturday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
A couple showers or isolated storms are possible this evening; however, the main impact to the TAF sites would likely arrive very late tonight into early Tuesday morning. This will be a result of a decaying line of showers and storms arriving from the west. Kept a tempo group in for each site around the most likely time period. Another break in the precip can be expected during the afternoon before additional storms develop Tuesday evening. It will be fairly breezy Tuesday with gusts reaching around 25 to 30 kts.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPOF POPLAR BLUFF MUNI,MO | 20 sm | 23 min | SSE 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 29.77 |
Paducah, KY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE