Friday, February28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rushmere, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:59PM Friday February 28, 2020 1:31 PM EST (18:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 1234 Pm Est Fri Feb 28 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of rain and snow showers late.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
ANZ600 1234 Pm Est Fri Feb 28 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A trough of low pressure will approach from the west today, and cross the waters by this evening. Offshore flow continues on Saturday as high pressure remains centered from the gulf coast to the tennessee valley. The high will slide off the southeast coast Sunday into Monday as the next system approaches from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rushmere, VA
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location: 37.06, -76.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 281751 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1251 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cooler weather will prevail across the region through Saturday night as high pressure slowly builds toward the area from the southwest. A warming trend begins on Sunday as the area of high pressure moves offshore. Rain chances increase by the middle part of next week as low pressure and an associated cold front approach from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1045 AM EST Friday .

Late morning weather analysis shows a vertically stacked low pressure system over southern Quebec, with broad upper troughing over the ern CONUS. An upper shortwave and associated weak sfc trough is located over the Appalachians. The upper shortwave/sfc trough will serve as focal points for shower development later today. Low-level SW flow prevails across the area, and temperatures have already risen into the low-mid 40s. Still expecting highs to rise into the upper 40s-low 50s today. As the aforementioned shortwave/sfc trough approach the area this afternoon, clouds will increase from W to E, as a band of moisture from 850-600 mb enters the CWA. CAMs are now largely in agreement that scattered showers will develop over the VA/NC Piedmont (along/ahead of the sfc trough) by early-mid aftn before moving east into our area from late aftn through the early overnight hours. Low-level (0-3 km) lapse rates will be steep (~9 degrees C/km) given that the upper trough axis will be nearby (in addition to deep mixing during peak heating this aftn). Freezing levels will be low, as 850 mb temperatures are progged to be in the -3 to -5C range. 700 mb temperatures will fall to -15 to -18C just ahead of the approaching shortwave. Even with dew points in the 20s, this will allow some weak (SBCAPE of ~100 J/kg) instability to develop.

Therefore, there is a fairly good chance that some mixing with graupel/a few snowflakes will occur as the showers move through the area. Temperatures will quickly drop into the upper 30s in the heavier showers as temperatures in the lowest 5000 ft cool to the wet bulb readings. Took a look at the latest 12z/18 HREF and it shows an average of 0.01-0.10" of pcpn across the srn half of the CWA. Raised PoPs to 30-40% across srn zones, with 15-30% PoPs for central/nrn zones. The most likely timing for pcpn is from 2-6 PM across from the VA Piedmont to Dorchester County (MD), 4-8 PM for the central third of the area, and 7 PM-midnight for SE VA/NE NC. Will keep a mention of rain or snow showers in the grids for most areas, but in reality the rain may mix more w/ graupel than snow. Even if the rain mixes with graupel/snow, temperatures at the surface will be well above freezing so no impacts or accumulations are expected. A secondary shortwave that is currently located over the Midwest will track across North Carolina tonight. Maintained a slight chance of snow showers (~15%) far SW zones from 09-12z Saturday.

Colder and drier air will begin to filter in tonight as winds turn to the WNW in the wake of the sfc trough. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s north of Richmond and over MD Eastern Shore, with upper 20s-low 30s across SE VA/NE NC.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 400 AM EST Friday .

A northwest flow will keep the area dry on Saturday. High temperatures will max out in the mid 40s across much of our area. Scatter CU across the Northern Neck and Delmarva will keep temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s Saturday afternoon.

Sunday morning temperatures will be in the low 20s (mid-upper 20s near the coast) as high pressure moves over the area. The high pressure will quickly move offshore during the day on Sunday, allowing temperatures to quickly rise to the mid 50s (upper 40s for Delmarva). Temperature be warmer Monday morning, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Next chance of rain will be Monday afternoon as an area of low pressure tracks northwest of the area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Thursday .

Unsettled pattern next week as an upper level trough over the SW US makes it's way eastward early in the week. Ahead of this feature, several disturbances will pass across the area. Slight rain chances across the northwest late Monday with better chances for rain across the entire area on Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area early Thursday bringing an end to the rain. Drier conditions expected for the end of the work week.

Temperatures will be well above normal next week with high and low temps running about 10-15 degrees above normal. Warmest day of the week will be Wednesday, where temps will range from the upper 60s N/NW to mid 70s SE.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 1250 PM EST Friday .

VFR conditions will prevail through the 18z TAF period. SW winds will continue to gust to ~20 kt through 22-23z before diminishing to 7-12 kt and turning to the W then WNW tonight. A weak shortwave and associated surface trough approach the area from the W later this aftn before moving away from the area tonight. A BKN cloud deck (5000-6000 ft) has already overspread RIC/SBY, and will overspread the remainder of the terminals by 21-23z. Isolated to scattered showers will likely cross the terminals from W to E from 21z this aftn to 04z Saturday. The chc of pcpn is 15% at SBY and 25-35% at the VA/NC terminals. The most likely timing for pcpn will be from 21-00z at RIC/SBY and 23-04z at PHF/ORF/ECG. There is a chc of some graupel briefly mixing in with the rain with any of the stronger showers. For now, will only include VCSH in the TAFs and amend as needed. VFR with SCT mid-level clouds later tonight. SCT CU (5000-6000 ft) will likely re-develop on Saturday near the coast (especially at SBY). WNW winds will likely become gusty (to ~20 kt) by midday Sat as well.

Outlook . VFR and dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure slowly builds into the area. Shower chances increase by the middle of next week with the possibility of degraded flight conditions.

MARINE. As of 1250 PM EST Friday .

Given the current winds and latest model data, went ahead and extended the SCA's thru 06Z for the Ches Bay/srn James River as well as adding Currituck Sound for the uptick in winds behind the sfc trof that will cross the waters this eve. Do, however, expect a few hr "lull" in the wind speeds early this eve as the daytime mixing eases ahead of the trof. Will word the text products toward this scenario. Expect sub SCA level winds/seas over the coastal waters thru tonite.

Previous Discussion:

SCA Headlines remain in place for the Bay and coastal waters N of Chincoteague into early this aftn for W/SW winds 15-20 kt (20-25 kt for the coastal waters). Seas have dropped 2-4 ft. A front is expected to approach from the W later this aftn and cross the waters this evening. Expect a surge of stronger winds with the initial push of colder air aloft but the duration of this is progged to be short lived (1-2 hrs) and probably convective in nature. A more prolonged period of marginal SCA level winds is forecast for Sat into Sat night as colder air aloft and deeper mixing looks likely (additional headlines will likely be needed at least for the Bay and northern coastal waters).

High pressure then becomes centered south of the local area on Sunday, leading to diminishing winds that will shift to the W to SW at 5-10 kt. High pressure migrates offshore Sun night into early next week, allowing for an increasing SW flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-638-650.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ/ERI NEAR TERM . CP/ERI SHORT TERM . CP LONG TERM . CMF AVIATION . ERI/RMM MARINE . LKB/RHR/MPR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 15 mi43 min WSW 17 G 23 47°F 1014.3 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi43 min WSW 12 G 23 48°F 46°F1013.2 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 20 mi49 min 47°F1014.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi49 min WSW 19 G 21 46°F 1013.5 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 21 mi43 min SW 14 G 18 48°F 1014.3 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi43 min W 19 G 25 47°F 1014.1 hPa
44072 24 mi31 min NW 18 G 21 46°F 45°F2 ft
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi61 min W 8 48°F 1015 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi43 min W 8.9 G 22 49°F 48°F1014.3 hPa
44064 31 mi31 min W 14 G 19 18°F 1 ft1013.9 hPa (-3.1)
CHBV2 31 mi49 min W 17 G 20 46°F 1013.1 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi43 min WSW 9.9 G 18 48°F 1014.5 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 37 mi43 min SW 18 G 20 45°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi31 min SW 18 G 19 45°F1 ft1016.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 48 mi43 min SW 18 G 21 1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA6 mi4.6 hrsWSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds40°F19°F43%1016.9 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA11 mi4.6 hrsWSW 1210.00 miFair42°F19°F41%1017.6 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA13 mi4.6 hrsW 11 G 1710.00 miFair39°F19°F45%1017.6 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA17 mi4.6 hrsWSW 1610.00 miA Few Clouds41°F20°F44%1017.9 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA18 mi4.6 hrsWSW 710.00 miFair41°F19°F43%1018 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA22 mi4.5 hrsWSW 910.00 miFair42°F19°F41%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFAF

Wind History from FAF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE6SE6E7E7----SE4--SE7E3SE5SE5--SE5SW8W13
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2 days ago------S6S6SW4SW7SW4CalmSW3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4CalmE3E3CalmE5E6

Tide / Current Tables for Burwell Bay, James River, Virginia
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Burwell Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:03 AM EST     2.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:39 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:18 PM EST     2.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:46 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.32.21.91.40.90.50.30.20.50.91.51.92.22.11.81.40.90.50.20.20.40.81.4

Tide / Current Tables for Smithfield, Pagan River, James River, Virginia
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Smithfield
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:12 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:23 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:27 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:30 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.72.62.21.610.50.30.30.61.11.72.22.52.52.21.610.50.20.20.511.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.