Rushmere, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rushmere, VA

June 18, 2024 2:19 AM EDT (06:19 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM
Moonrise 4:29 PM   Moonset 1:58 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 1244 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024

Rest of tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 kt late. Waves around 1 foot.

Tue night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight.

Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop after midnight.

Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.

Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.

Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

ANZ600 1244 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure remains offshore this week with generally benign marine conditions apart from elevated southeast winds later this afternoon and evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rushmere, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 180520 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 120 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure drifts off the New England coast through midweek.
A very warm and dry pattern then looks to take hold for much of the week ahead. Heat peaks this weekend with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 940 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Dry and pleasant tonight.

Latest analysis reveals 1024mb high pressure is centered just offshore of the New England coast, with the surface ridge axis extending S-SW across the lower mid-Atlantic coast. Aloft, well-advertised, and anomalously strong, upper level ridge was centered to our west this evening. Late afternoon/early evening convection in vicinity of the Blue Ridge has remained west of the local area. Partly cloudy west to mostly clear east this evening with temperatures primarily in the 70s. Remaining partly to mostly clear overnight w/early morning lows generally in the mid-upper 60s (highest in the Piedmont and near the coast where some lingering mid-clouds and low-level moisture will be more robust).

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Continued warm and dry through the midweek period as the core of the upper ridge lifts just north of the local area.

Surface high pressure remains anchored offshore of the mid- Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, before weakening slightly as it builds down into the Carolinas by Thu. Weak low-level onshore flow maintains an atypical temperature pattern (warmer NW, cooler SE) in place. Highs each day will be in the upper 80s SE (mid 80s at near the coast) to the low 90s NW, with highs increasing into the upper 80s to low 90s on Thu. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s which will keep heat index values very near the air temp. Clouds, outside of typical afternoon cumulus, will be hard to come by with strong ridging aloft. Low temps mainly in the 60s each night with low 70s possible along the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and increasingly humid conditions expected Saturday and Sunday.

- Remaining mainly dry through the week.

The anomalously strong upper heat ridge peaks at around ~600 dam over the northeast Friday morning. Highs inland rise into the mid 90s for the NW half of the area on Friday with low 90s to the SE (upper 80s near the immediate coast). Dew points look to mix out into the 60s once again, so max heat index values remain within 1-2 deg F of the air temperature.

Looking ahead, the main weather story this weekend remains the persistent and increasingly oppressive heat. Sfc high pressure slides into a more typical summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern in the western Atlantic. This allows return flow to pull in hot and more humid air into the region over the weekend, with PW rebounding back toward typical climo values for late June.
EPS/GEFS probs and thickness schemes from both the ECMWF and GFS continue to favor widespread highs in the upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into the upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday and potentially 105+ in spots on Sunday (especially eastern sections). Equally as important, relief at night will become increasingly harder to come by, with overnight lows only falling to around 70 degrees Friday night, and into the lower to middle 90s Sat and Sun nights. Therefore, while no heat-related headlines are necessary for much of the forecast period, it is appearing increasingly likely that we will need to ramp up heat messaging to core partners for later this week, with some heat headlines a good bet to be needed over at least a portion of the area by this weekend.

Regarding rain chances, increasing PW and the likely re-emergence of a weak lee trough by next weekend does allow for at least a better chance of some possible showers/storms by Sunday and Monday. Will maintain a slight to low-end chance (20-30%) during the late afternoon and early evening.

AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will continue to prevail for the next 24 hrs.
Skies will remain mostly clear at the terminals this morning with FEW-SCT CU (~6000ft AGL) inland during the aftn. The wind will be light out of the SSE tonight, and then become SE ~10kt later this morning into the aftn.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

MARINE
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into early tonight for the Chesapeake Bay, York River, and Rappahannock River

- Southeast winds briefly increase to 15-20 kt across the Chesapeake Bay Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening

-Winds and seas increase late Sunday into Sunday night.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure offshore with a ridge aloft over the East Coast. This features remain in place through the week with a repeating diurnal pattern each day with winds generally S/SE each day. Winds this afternoon were generally S/SE 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the Ches Bay with lower winds across the James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters.
12z CAMs have increased consensus and confidence in winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt into the Rappahannock and York Rivers later this afternoon. As such, SCAs have been expanded to included these rivers. While a few gusts to 20 kt are possible over the James River and Currituck Sound late this afternoon into this evening, confidence is too low to expand the SCAs to these areas with most model guidance keeping winds sub-SCA. SCAs will remain in effect until 10 PM for the upper rivers, 1 AM Tue for the lower bay, and 4 AM Tue for the middle and upper bay. Winds become S, diminishing to 5-10 kt late tonight. Winds become SE Tue, increasing to 15-17 kt with gusts to 20 kt across the Ches Bay and rivers Tue afternoon into Tue evening. Will continue to monitor for the potential for marginal SCA conditions Tue afternoon/evening, however, wind probs remain relatively low at this time (<25%).
Relatively benign marine conditions are expected from Tue night into this weekend as a ridge remains over the East Coast with high pressure offshore. Some model guidance suggests a period of elevated seas and high period swell Sun into Mon as a potential wave of low pressure moves towards the Southeast coast. Will continue to monitor.

Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft and 3 ft respectively later this afternoon into this evening. Waves and seas remain 1-3 ft and 2-3 ft through Wed. There is the potential for 3-4 ft seas Thu-Fri night.
However, seas should remain sub-SCA. Some model guidance suggests that seas build Sun into Mon to SCA criteria (~4-6 ft) due to a wave of low pressure moving towards the Southeast coast.

The rip risk is moderate across the N beaches (due to higher period swell of ~11 seconds) on Tue and low across the S beaches (due to a lower period swell of ~6 seconds) with a moderate rip risk across all area beaches on Wed due to building seas and a more onshore flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ630-631.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 12 mi43 minSSE 7.8G7.8 72°F 81°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 15 mi49 minS 8.9G12 74°F 30.22
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi49 minSSE 5.1G8 74°F 77°F30.22
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 20 mi49 min 77°F30.25
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi49 minSE 4.1G7 73°F 30.22
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 21 mi49 minS 8.9G12 74°F 30.22
44072 24 mi49 minS 12G16 74°F 1 ft
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi49 min0 71°F 30.2164°F
44087 28 mi53 min 76°F1 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi49 minS 1.9G4.1 72°F 79°F30.21
44064 31 mi43 minSSE 12G14 71°F 75°F1 ft
CHBV2 31 mi49 minS 8.9G11 74°F 30.19
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi49 minSSE 6G9.9 73°F 30.22
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 37 mi49 minS 9.9G12 74°F 74°F30.25
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi43 minS 12G16 74°F 77°F1 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 48 mi49 minS 16G18 30.26


Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current for Burwell Bay, James River, Virginia
   
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Burwell Bay
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Mon -- 02:01 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:28 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Burwell Bay, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.9
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.5
3
am
0.6
4
am
0.9
5
am
1.4
6
am
1.7
7
am
1.9
8
am
1.9
9
am
1.8
10
am
1.4
11
am
1.1
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
0.5
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
0.6
4
pm
1
5
pm
1.5
6
pm
2
7
pm
2.4
8
pm
2.5
9
pm
2.4
10
pm
2.1
11
pm
1.7


Tide / Current for Smithfield, Pagan River, James River, Virginia
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Smithfield
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Mon -- 01:45 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:31 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Smithfield, Pagan River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
0.7
2
am
0.6
3
am
0.8
4
am
1.1
5
am
1.6
6
am
2
7
am
2.3
8
am
2.3
9
am
2.1
10
am
1.7
11
am
1.2
12
pm
0.8
1
pm
0.5
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
1.2
5
pm
1.8
6
pm
2.4
7
pm
2.8
8
pm
2.9
9
pm
2.8
10
pm
2.5
11
pm
1.9


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Wakefield, VA,




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