Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Shore, VA
April 25, 2024 3:23 PM EDT (19:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 9:08 PM Moonset 6:09 AM |
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 251803 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 203 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
A wedge of high pressure builds in by early Friday morning, bringing clouds, lower temperatures, and a low chance for drizzle in the mountains through Saturday. Sunday into the beginning of next week look especially warm, with shower chances returning Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Dry and mostly sunny today and should remain that way through the evening hours. High pressure building in from the north will wedge into the region and bring a marine layer of clouds and some drizzle tonight.
East winds and cool air wedging will continue into Friday keeping clouds in place throughout much of the day, especially for locations along and east of the Blue Ridge. Clouds, some drizzle and easterly flow will keep high temperatures on the cooler side with 50s in the mountains and 60s in the lower elevations.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Cloudy and cooler on Friday with light rain possible
2) Drying out Saturday with warming temperatures.
Weak warm advection aloft associated with a warm front lifting through the Tennessee Valley will result in increasing cloud cover through daybreak Friday. As surface winds take on an increasingly easterly component, low level saturation will allow for some areas of drizzle to start the day. This will likely continue into the early afternoon hours before BL mixing introduces enough dry air to dry things out by mid day. However as the aforementioned warm front moves into the Ohio Valley by Friday evening, weak isentropic ascent will increase and light rain should return through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will be light and should end from south to north by late Saturday morning.
Temperatures on Friday will struggle a bit given cloud cover and drizzle, with highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows Friday night will fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s. As the warm front lifts north on Saturday, clouds will slowly decrease and temps will rise about 8-10 degrees with highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 70s. Lows Saturday night will fall into the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Warmup continues through Tuesday
2) Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening
Sunday will see a strengthening ridge aloft with 580-582dm 500mb heights overspreading the area. This will translate to increasing temps and decreasing cloud cover across the area. Temps will warm well above normal for late April with highs Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with a further 5-8 degrees of warming expected on Monday. This is all ahead of an approaching cold front which should move through the area on Tuesday. Increasing southwesterly winds ahead of the front will keep temps in the mid 80s through Tuesday afternoon and with FROPA not likely until late afternoon/early evening, there should be plenty of time for the BL to destabilize.
MLCAPES look to approach 500-1000 J/KG across the area ahead of the front and I maintained the mention of thunderstorms in the forecast.
The period of Wednesday and Thursday looks to be active as the flow aloft takes on a more zonal component and a series of fast moving embedded shortwave troughs move through the flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible both Wednesday and Thursday with continued temperatures in the low to mid 80s both days.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR weather today at all sites with only a few cu through mid afternoon. Clouds will increase later tonight as winds take on an increasingly east component. MVFR cigs likely at DAN/LYH with LIFR/IFR cigs likely after 06Z elsewhere. Areas of drizzle are also expected which will somewhat limit vsbys but cigs will be the main impact. Some improvement is likely by the end of the TAF period.
Average confidence in the aviation forecast.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Non-VFR weather likely to continue Friday night through Saturday morning as a warm front lifts through the area. Conditions will improve by Sunday. On Monday we should see improvement to VFR.
Winds turn more southerly Sunday and Monday. Tuesday will see a cold front approach the area with non-VFR weather possible area-wide.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 203 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
A wedge of high pressure builds in by early Friday morning, bringing clouds, lower temperatures, and a low chance for drizzle in the mountains through Saturday. Sunday into the beginning of next week look especially warm, with shower chances returning Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Dry and mostly sunny today and should remain that way through the evening hours. High pressure building in from the north will wedge into the region and bring a marine layer of clouds and some drizzle tonight.
East winds and cool air wedging will continue into Friday keeping clouds in place throughout much of the day, especially for locations along and east of the Blue Ridge. Clouds, some drizzle and easterly flow will keep high temperatures on the cooler side with 50s in the mountains and 60s in the lower elevations.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Cloudy and cooler on Friday with light rain possible
2) Drying out Saturday with warming temperatures.
Weak warm advection aloft associated with a warm front lifting through the Tennessee Valley will result in increasing cloud cover through daybreak Friday. As surface winds take on an increasingly easterly component, low level saturation will allow for some areas of drizzle to start the day. This will likely continue into the early afternoon hours before BL mixing introduces enough dry air to dry things out by mid day. However as the aforementioned warm front moves into the Ohio Valley by Friday evening, weak isentropic ascent will increase and light rain should return through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will be light and should end from south to north by late Saturday morning.
Temperatures on Friday will struggle a bit given cloud cover and drizzle, with highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows Friday night will fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s. As the warm front lifts north on Saturday, clouds will slowly decrease and temps will rise about 8-10 degrees with highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 70s. Lows Saturday night will fall into the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Warmup continues through Tuesday
2) Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening
Sunday will see a strengthening ridge aloft with 580-582dm 500mb heights overspreading the area. This will translate to increasing temps and decreasing cloud cover across the area. Temps will warm well above normal for late April with highs Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with a further 5-8 degrees of warming expected on Monday. This is all ahead of an approaching cold front which should move through the area on Tuesday. Increasing southwesterly winds ahead of the front will keep temps in the mid 80s through Tuesday afternoon and with FROPA not likely until late afternoon/early evening, there should be plenty of time for the BL to destabilize.
MLCAPES look to approach 500-1000 J/KG across the area ahead of the front and I maintained the mention of thunderstorms in the forecast.
The period of Wednesday and Thursday looks to be active as the flow aloft takes on a more zonal component and a series of fast moving embedded shortwave troughs move through the flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible both Wednesday and Thursday with continued temperatures in the low to mid 80s both days.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR weather today at all sites with only a few cu through mid afternoon. Clouds will increase later tonight as winds take on an increasingly east component. MVFR cigs likely at DAN/LYH with LIFR/IFR cigs likely after 06Z elsewhere. Areas of drizzle are also expected which will somewhat limit vsbys but cigs will be the main impact. Some improvement is likely by the end of the TAF period.
Average confidence in the aviation forecast.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Non-VFR weather likely to continue Friday night through Saturday morning as a warm front lifts through the area. Conditions will improve by Sunday. On Monday we should see improvement to VFR.
Winds turn more southerly Sunday and Monday. Tuesday will see a cold front approach the area with non-VFR weather possible area-wide.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
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Blacksburg, VA,
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