Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Shore, VA
May 18, 2024 6:47 PM EDT (22:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:06 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 2:53 PM Moonset 2:35 AM |
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 181744 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 144 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A nearly stationary front across northern North Carolina will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavy rain, across the area through this evening. As this front drifts south tonight, the chances of precipitation decrease with only scattered mountain showers and storms expected Sunday.
High pressure will bring dry weather from Monday into most of Wednesday, before an approaching cold front Thursday brings the next chance of showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1) Heavy rain potential continues through this evening.
2) Drier tomorrow with only a slight chance of rain for the mountains.
Satellite and surface analysis indicates that a stalled boundary is situated along the Virginia/North Carolina border.
Some clearing has already occured within this region and dew points are already into the mid and upper 60s. As such, SBCAPE has already begun to trend upward to around 1000 J/kg.
Expecting some upward trend in instability to continue as surface heating across the Carolina counties has brought temperatures into the mid 70s. Some convection has already begun within the VA/NC border and expecting this activity to continue to increase in coverage over the next several hours.
The main threat today is flooding, with possibly a wind threat in some stronger storms. A large hail threat will be limited owing to the higher freezing level.
Relatively strong northeast flow continues over the Piedmont of Virginia has held low clouds and cooler air in place, therefore very stable and not expecting much, if any rain from Danville to Lynchburg and east.
Cool air wedge strengthens overnight and cooler air and low clouds will cover a large portion of the area by tomorrow morning. Expecting some fog development as well. May see some erosion of the wedge throughout the day tomorrow. A chance of some differential heating/orographic lift downpours or isolated thunderstorms across the western mountains in the afternoon, but otherwise most of the area should remain dry with the northeast flow in place.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1215 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1). Mainly Dry through the period for a change.
2). Temperatures near seasonal normal.
The weak and broad upper trough across the eastern U.S. will lift out of the region Sunday allowing an upper ridge to build eastward and northeastward into the region from the south central U.S. Dynamics/forcing will be limited under the upper ridge with warming temperatures aloft. At the surface, a lingering wedge will remain across the area into Monday, but gradually dissipate through the period. Increased sunshine, less precipitation, and the dissipating wedge will allow temperatures to warm back to seasonal levels compared to the last few rather cool days. Other than a scattering of diurnally driven showers across the western mountains, and principally the southwest VA/northwest NC mountains, little if any precipitation is expected through this time frame.
Temperatures will range mostly from the 50s at night to the 70s mountains into the lower 80s elsewhere through the period.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1215 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1). Increasingly unsettled weather pattern evolves during the later half of the week.
2). Temperatures remain near seasonal normals.
Upper ridging across the eastern U.S. will gradually break down through the later half of the week as a strong short wave tracks from the Midwest toward the Great Lakes. An associated cold front will move slowly into the region Thu-Fri. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as the front approaches from the west, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. Timing is a bit uncertain as the ECMWF is quite a bit slower than the GFS.
The ECMWF would delay the bulk of the precipitation until Friday going into the weekend. Activity looks to be somewhat scattered and mostly diurnal at this point with a low severe threat. Heavy rain may eventually be a greater concern, but too far out to hone in on any specific threats.
Temperatures are expected to remain relatively near seasonal normals with a slight cooling trend from midweek to the weekend as clouds and precipitation coverage increase. Look for lows mostly in the 50s to lower 60s urban areas with high temperatures primarily in the 70s mountains with lower 80s Piedmont.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...
Mostly a mix of VFR and MVFR this afternoon. Should see this continue through the afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already begun to develop and coverage of these will continue to increase through the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Cool northeast flow over the Piedmont of Virginia will continue to supply OVC to BKN cigs of 010 to 015. Northeast flow strengthens tonight and will begun to see IFR/LIFR cigs through the overnight and into Sunday morning. Some improvements through Sunday morning, but still sub VFR is likely.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A few showers or isolated storms in the mountains on Sunday afternoon. MVFR/IFR clouds and showers remain in the area through Sunday night.
Some improvements by Monday as the slow moving storm system begins to depart east. Tuesday is the most likely day to be VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 144 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A nearly stationary front across northern North Carolina will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavy rain, across the area through this evening. As this front drifts south tonight, the chances of precipitation decrease with only scattered mountain showers and storms expected Sunday.
High pressure will bring dry weather from Monday into most of Wednesday, before an approaching cold front Thursday brings the next chance of showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1) Heavy rain potential continues through this evening.
2) Drier tomorrow with only a slight chance of rain for the mountains.
Satellite and surface analysis indicates that a stalled boundary is situated along the Virginia/North Carolina border.
Some clearing has already occured within this region and dew points are already into the mid and upper 60s. As such, SBCAPE has already begun to trend upward to around 1000 J/kg.
Expecting some upward trend in instability to continue as surface heating across the Carolina counties has brought temperatures into the mid 70s. Some convection has already begun within the VA/NC border and expecting this activity to continue to increase in coverage over the next several hours.
The main threat today is flooding, with possibly a wind threat in some stronger storms. A large hail threat will be limited owing to the higher freezing level.
Relatively strong northeast flow continues over the Piedmont of Virginia has held low clouds and cooler air in place, therefore very stable and not expecting much, if any rain from Danville to Lynchburg and east.
Cool air wedge strengthens overnight and cooler air and low clouds will cover a large portion of the area by tomorrow morning. Expecting some fog development as well. May see some erosion of the wedge throughout the day tomorrow. A chance of some differential heating/orographic lift downpours or isolated thunderstorms across the western mountains in the afternoon, but otherwise most of the area should remain dry with the northeast flow in place.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1215 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1). Mainly Dry through the period for a change.
2). Temperatures near seasonal normal.
The weak and broad upper trough across the eastern U.S. will lift out of the region Sunday allowing an upper ridge to build eastward and northeastward into the region from the south central U.S. Dynamics/forcing will be limited under the upper ridge with warming temperatures aloft. At the surface, a lingering wedge will remain across the area into Monday, but gradually dissipate through the period. Increased sunshine, less precipitation, and the dissipating wedge will allow temperatures to warm back to seasonal levels compared to the last few rather cool days. Other than a scattering of diurnally driven showers across the western mountains, and principally the southwest VA/northwest NC mountains, little if any precipitation is expected through this time frame.
Temperatures will range mostly from the 50s at night to the 70s mountains into the lower 80s elsewhere through the period.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1215 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1). Increasingly unsettled weather pattern evolves during the later half of the week.
2). Temperatures remain near seasonal normals.
Upper ridging across the eastern U.S. will gradually break down through the later half of the week as a strong short wave tracks from the Midwest toward the Great Lakes. An associated cold front will move slowly into the region Thu-Fri. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as the front approaches from the west, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. Timing is a bit uncertain as the ECMWF is quite a bit slower than the GFS.
The ECMWF would delay the bulk of the precipitation until Friday going into the weekend. Activity looks to be somewhat scattered and mostly diurnal at this point with a low severe threat. Heavy rain may eventually be a greater concern, but too far out to hone in on any specific threats.
Temperatures are expected to remain relatively near seasonal normals with a slight cooling trend from midweek to the weekend as clouds and precipitation coverage increase. Look for lows mostly in the 50s to lower 60s urban areas with high temperatures primarily in the 70s mountains with lower 80s Piedmont.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...
Mostly a mix of VFR and MVFR this afternoon. Should see this continue through the afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already begun to develop and coverage of these will continue to increase through the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Cool northeast flow over the Piedmont of Virginia will continue to supply OVC to BKN cigs of 010 to 015. Northeast flow strengthens tonight and will begun to see IFR/LIFR cigs through the overnight and into Sunday morning. Some improvements through Sunday morning, but still sub VFR is likely.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A few showers or isolated storms in the mountains on Sunday afternoon. MVFR/IFR clouds and showers remain in the area through Sunday night.
Some improvements by Monday as the slow moving storm system begins to depart east. Tuesday is the most likely day to be VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Blacksburg, VA,
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