Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shaver Lake, CA

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures will trend warmer until late this week.

2. An upper-level disturbance arrives midweek which will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms to mainly the mountain areas. Otherwise, warmer than average temperatures continue until the end of the week.

3. A cooldown and stronger system will bring a chance of more widespread precipitation and locally gusty winds for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Warmer temperatures are in store today until Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds over Central CA. Dry weather prevails, but isolated mountain thunderstorms will be a daily occurrence in portions of the Sierra Nevada. The threat of thunderstorms spreads to the Kern County mountains and into much of the foothill areas on Wednesday and Thursday due to an upper-level shortwave trough. The Storm Prediction Center shows a general risk of thunderstorms for these areas on Wednesday and Thursday (i.e., Days 2-3 Thunderstorm Outlooks). Friday will remain a warm day for most of our forecast area, and we could see fewer mountain thunderstorms as the flow turns more southwesterly.
However, will keep at least a slight chance of thunderstorms for the Sierra until Friday, as some snow cover remains as a sufficient moisture source, at least for the higher elevations.
Few changes in terms of probabilistic data are shown regarding the high temperatures projected for the lower elevations; we are still looking at moderate to high chances of reaching into the mid-upper 80's in much of the valley and desert for the next few days.

The weekend continues to appear cool and unsettled with quite a few similarities to last weekend. Several inches of snow mainly above 6,000 feet are expected for the mountains, although with snow levels down to 5,000 feet for a brief period. The best chances for precipitation will be in the mountains and foothills, although a slight chance of thunderstorms remains for portions of the SJ Valley. Gusty winds are becoming increasingly likely for the mountains and desert, including the Mojave Desert slopes and over the Sierra Nevada crest, where the probabilities for gusts over 60 mph continue to rise, or up to around 40-60 percent chance.

By early next week, the upper-level trough gradually moves further inland, although guidance continues to show a Rex block pattern over the interior Western U.S. with an upper-level low over the Southwest on Monday into next Tuesday. For us, it appears a somewhat warmer and drying pattern occurs, but temperatures will remain below seasonal averages. The latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center also support continued near to below average temperatures and near to above average precipitation through the second week of May. However, much uncertainty exists, given we are still in spring and transitioning to our drier season.


AVIATION
00Z Update:

In the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills, VFR conditions will persist for the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere, mainly VFR, except MVFR due to cloud buildups and isolated showers/thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada thru 03Z Wed and redeveloping in the Sierra and foothills after 18Z Wed.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.