Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shaver Lake, CA
November 29, 2023 9:27 PM PST (05:27 UTC)
Sunrise 6:49AM Sunset 4:44PM Moonrise 7:36PM Moonset 10:24AM
Area Discussion for - San Joaquin Valley/Hanford, CA
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FXUS66 KHNX 292144 AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 144 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
Slight chance of light rain is possible along the Coastal Range and western portion of the San Joaquin Valley today. An incoming disturbance will increase the chances of rain in the San Joaquin Valley and snow over the Sierra Crest Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Winds will increase over the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains associated with the aforementioned disturbance.
DISCUSSION
Current satellite imagery depicts mid and high level clouds moving over the region associated with a shortwave trough that is currently stationed over California. There is a slight chance for the moisture starved system to produce rain showers along the Coastal Range and western portion of the San Joaquin Valley. Local model guidance illustrates a 10-20 percent chance that rain reaches the valley today, with any chances for precipitation decreasing significantly in the early afternoon hours.
A more moisture laden, cold core trough, will dive southeast from the Gulf of Alaska, making its way over the Pacific NW and West Coast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. This system will increase the chances for precipitation over the central portion San Joaquin Valley, central and southern Kern County, as well as the Sierra Nevada Range. Short range deterministic models and ensembles depict a 30-40% chance of rain from Thursday afternoon into very early Friday morning, with trace amounts expected over the SJV. In central and southern Kern County, there are similar chances for rain late Thursday night into early Friday morning.
Amounts will range from one tenth to a quarter inch of precip, with rain below 4600 feet and snow above the aforementioned height. Due to the orientation of the system, the Sierra Nevada communities have a greater chance of seeing precipitation. Snow levels will range from 6500 feet at the onset of precipitation Thursday morning over the northern Sierra's and dropping to around 4600 feet by the end of the event early Friday morning.
Although there is a higher chance for precipitation, amounts look to remain fairly low, with generally less than an inch of snow in most locations outside of Yosemite Valley, Tuolumne Meadows and Tioga pass area. The following are probabilities for one inch or more of snow Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening for select locations:
Tioga Pass - 66% Tuolumne Meadows - 71% Yosemite National Park - 53% Hetchy Hetchy - 48% Lodgepole - 44% Wawona - 31% Cedar Grove - 26%
The trough will also tighten the pressure gradient, increasing the winds over the Tehachapi Range and southern Sierra Nevada Mountains. Max gusts above 40 mph are expected Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, however not expecting winds to reach advisory levels at this time. Winds taper off with the passing of the system.
Following the passing of the trough, a more zonal flow will dominate the region over the weekend; keeping unsettled weather well north of the state and allowing more seasonal temperatures to be ushered in. Medium range models and ensemble clusters depict an amplified ridge building in over the region early next week, warming temperatures above climatological norms.
AVIATION...
MVFR conditions are possible in portions of the San Joaquin Valley until after 13Z Thursday morning due to mist and haze.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at least the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Wednesday November 29 2023, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Madera Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 144 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
Slight chance of light rain is possible along the Coastal Range and western portion of the San Joaquin Valley today. An incoming disturbance will increase the chances of rain in the San Joaquin Valley and snow over the Sierra Crest Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Winds will increase over the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains associated with the aforementioned disturbance.
DISCUSSION
Current satellite imagery depicts mid and high level clouds moving over the region associated with a shortwave trough that is currently stationed over California. There is a slight chance for the moisture starved system to produce rain showers along the Coastal Range and western portion of the San Joaquin Valley. Local model guidance illustrates a 10-20 percent chance that rain reaches the valley today, with any chances for precipitation decreasing significantly in the early afternoon hours.
A more moisture laden, cold core trough, will dive southeast from the Gulf of Alaska, making its way over the Pacific NW and West Coast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. This system will increase the chances for precipitation over the central portion San Joaquin Valley, central and southern Kern County, as well as the Sierra Nevada Range. Short range deterministic models and ensembles depict a 30-40% chance of rain from Thursday afternoon into very early Friday morning, with trace amounts expected over the SJV. In central and southern Kern County, there are similar chances for rain late Thursday night into early Friday morning.
Amounts will range from one tenth to a quarter inch of precip, with rain below 4600 feet and snow above the aforementioned height. Due to the orientation of the system, the Sierra Nevada communities have a greater chance of seeing precipitation. Snow levels will range from 6500 feet at the onset of precipitation Thursday morning over the northern Sierra's and dropping to around 4600 feet by the end of the event early Friday morning.
Although there is a higher chance for precipitation, amounts look to remain fairly low, with generally less than an inch of snow in most locations outside of Yosemite Valley, Tuolumne Meadows and Tioga pass area. The following are probabilities for one inch or more of snow Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening for select locations:
Tioga Pass - 66% Tuolumne Meadows - 71% Yosemite National Park - 53% Hetchy Hetchy - 48% Lodgepole - 44% Wawona - 31% Cedar Grove - 26%
The trough will also tighten the pressure gradient, increasing the winds over the Tehachapi Range and southern Sierra Nevada Mountains. Max gusts above 40 mph are expected Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, however not expecting winds to reach advisory levels at this time. Winds taper off with the passing of the system.
Following the passing of the trough, a more zonal flow will dominate the region over the weekend; keeping unsettled weather well north of the state and allowing more seasonal temperatures to be ushered in. Medium range models and ensemble clusters depict an amplified ridge building in over the region early next week, warming temperatures above climatological norms.
AVIATION...
MVFR conditions are possible in portions of the San Joaquin Valley until after 13Z Thursday morning due to mist and haze.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at least the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Wednesday November 29 2023, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Madera Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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