Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shaver Lake, CA
October 5, 2024 7:02 PM PDT (02:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:56 AM Sunset 6:36 PM Moonrise 9:44 AM Moonset 7:52 PM |
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Area Discussion for San Joaquin Valley/Hanford, CA
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FXUS66 KHNX 051949 AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1249 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry conditions and well above average temperatures will prevail through the middle of next week. There is a 40 to 85 percent chance of triple digit heat across much of the San Joaquin Valley on Sunday.
2. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the San Joaquin Valley, West Side Hills, and Sierra Foothills through 11 PM PDT Sunday.
3. Low afternoon humidity will occur across many locations along with poor to moderate overnight recoveries in the mountains and desert.
4. The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlooks show a 50 to 70 percent chance for above normal temperatures across the region.
DISCUSSION
The ridge of high pressure that brought us the record-breaking triple digits continues to hang around. Latest model ensembles are in a very strong agreement that the ridge moves east through the weekend into early next week. The setup will help bring temperatures down but will remain above average for the next several days.
There is a 40 to 85 percent probability of triple digits for Sunday in the San Joaquin Valley. However, the probabilities of triple digits drop to 25 percent or less in most spots on Monday. Over the next couple days, the probabilities of high temperatures of at least 90 degrees decrease slowly down to a 60 to 85 percent probability on Thursday, October 10.
Model ensembles are in an agreement that a trough slides into the Pacific Northwest bringing in cooler temperatures. However, the probabilities are at 45 to 75 percent for high temperatures of at least 85 degrees beginning Friday which is around 5 degrees above average. This bodes well with the latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks which have a 50 to 70 percent chance of above average temperatures. However, the CPC outlooks have near normal precipitation in both 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks which is not much as the daily climatology has 0 to 0.01 inches of precipitation.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior over the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ300>322.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1249 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry conditions and well above average temperatures will prevail through the middle of next week. There is a 40 to 85 percent chance of triple digit heat across much of the San Joaquin Valley on Sunday.
2. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the San Joaquin Valley, West Side Hills, and Sierra Foothills through 11 PM PDT Sunday.
3. Low afternoon humidity will occur across many locations along with poor to moderate overnight recoveries in the mountains and desert.
4. The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlooks show a 50 to 70 percent chance for above normal temperatures across the region.
DISCUSSION
The ridge of high pressure that brought us the record-breaking triple digits continues to hang around. Latest model ensembles are in a very strong agreement that the ridge moves east through the weekend into early next week. The setup will help bring temperatures down but will remain above average for the next several days.
There is a 40 to 85 percent probability of triple digits for Sunday in the San Joaquin Valley. However, the probabilities of triple digits drop to 25 percent or less in most spots on Monday. Over the next couple days, the probabilities of high temperatures of at least 90 degrees decrease slowly down to a 60 to 85 percent probability on Thursday, October 10.
Model ensembles are in an agreement that a trough slides into the Pacific Northwest bringing in cooler temperatures. However, the probabilities are at 45 to 75 percent for high temperatures of at least 85 degrees beginning Friday which is around 5 degrees above average. This bodes well with the latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks which have a 50 to 70 percent chance of above average temperatures. However, the CPC outlooks have near normal precipitation in both 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks which is not much as the daily climatology has 0 to 0.01 inches of precipitation.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior over the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ300>322.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KFAT
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFAT
Wind History Graph: FAT
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Southwest
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San Joaquin Valley, CA,
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