Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shaver Lake, CA

KEY MESSAGES
1. Warming trend in temperatures through Tuesday.

2. Temperatures will see a cooling trend starting mid-week ahead of a disturbance moving into the area next weekend.

3. Locally breezy conditions expected across the Mojave Desert from the middle of next week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Will see sunny skies today as high resolution short range ensemble upper air analysis has ridging moving onto the West Coast today. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 85 degrees is high during the early part of the week and then tapers-off later in the week. PoE of 85 degrees or greater will range from 70%-90% through Tuesday and lower to less then 20% by Thursday. Current surface pressure gradient from KSFO to KLAS sits at around 1mb. This translates into light winds across the district. As temperatures see a warming trend, winds will remain light and diurnally driven. Cooling will begin on Wednesday as temperatures drop to a few degrees below seasonal normal values (around 75 degrees) by Friday and Saturday.

Longer range upper-air ensemble analysis is leaning toward the introduction of a trough pattern near the weekend. While widespread precipitation is very unlikely across Central California, a decreasing temperatures and increasing winds have a higher probability of occurring. Longer range temperatures PoE analysis is showing a 50% chance of temperatures reaching 75 degrees on Saturday. With PoE of seeing even lower temperatures, confidence is high on a good cool-down by next weekend. At the same time, PoE for wind gusts will increase as percentages rise to 40%-60% during the Friday and Saturday time frame. At the moment, Sunday will see little change in temperatures and winds before a transition back to warming closer to Day-8 (Monday).

AVIATION
00Z:

VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior thru 00Z Tuesday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.