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FXUS66 KHNX 110824 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1224 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Areas of fog will develop in the San Joaquin Valley early this morning. Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees are expected in rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley each night and early morning today into Wednesday morning. A warming trend is anticipated Wednesday through Saturday. Dry weather will persist through at least the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION
Areas of fog will develop in the San Joaquin Valley early this morning. The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast guidance depicts a moderate probability (40 percent) of this fog becoming dense.
Patchy fog may form in the San Joaquin Valley tonight. The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast guidance depicts a low probability (20 percent) of this fog becoming dense.

A trough of low pressure will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest today. This trough of low pressure will deepen over the Great Basin tonight. An area of low pressure aloft will develop in the base of this trough Tuesday. This cyclone aloft will move southward Tuesday night, before progressing eastward across the Desert Southwest Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will build northward over the Western United States Thursday through Saturday. A trough of low pressure may approach the west coast of the United States Sunday. Dry weather will persist across Central California through at least the upcoming weekend.

Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees are anticipated in rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley each night and early morning today into Wednesday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect until 8 AM PST Wednesday morning. High temperatures both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon will be two to four degrees above normal for this time of year. A warming trend is expected Wednesday through Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, maximum temperatures will be around fifteen degrees above their typical values for the middle of December. Near record warmth is possible in Fresno and Hanford Saturday afternoon.

AVIATION
IFR or lower conditions are possible in parts of the San Joaqin Valley until 18Z this morning due to mist and fog. VFR conditions will prevail across Central California this afternoon and this evening. MVFR visibilities are possible in the San Joaqin Valley tonight due to mist.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
On Monday, December 11th, 2023, unhealthy for sensitive groups in Fresno and Kern Counties. Fireplace/wood stove burning status is: no burning for all in Fresno and Kern Counties. No burning unless registered in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area), as well as in Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low, medium, and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning until 8 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ301>303-305-306- 309>312-315.

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San Joaquin Valley, CA,