Bethel Manor, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bethel Manor, VA

June 20, 2024 3:34 PM EDT (19:34 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM
Moonrise 6:41 PM   Moonset 3:06 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 310 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Through 7 pm - SE winds 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and early morning, then becoming 5 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot in the late evening and early morning, then diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop late.

Fri - SW winds 5 kt, becoming se with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot in the afternoon.

Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.

Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Sun - SW winds 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 310 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure remains offshore this week with generally benign marine conditions. Increased southerly flow is expected Saturday and especially Sunday as low pressure passes well north of the area and a weak cold front approaches from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Manor, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 201905 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 305 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast slowly shifts south through the end of the week leading to an extended period of hot weather this weekend and continues into next week. There is a small chance for rain Sunday night into Monday, and again on Thursday, but many places will stay dry.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Quiet and seasonable tonight.

High pressure offshore will allow for continued dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Current dew points are in the low to mid 60s. Guidance suggests dew points may creep up into the mid 60s tonight, so low temperatures may be slightly warmer than last night. Still most places will be in the mid to upper 60s which is seasonable for this time of year.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Turning warmer and a little more humid for Friday.

- Hot conditions expected Saturday and Sunday with maximum temperatures approaching 100F

- Heat index values 105F or greater Sunday.

Very little change to the current forecast for Friday into Sunday. Expecting the heat to start on Friday as the sfc/upper ridge axis shifts south of the area allowing warmer 850mb temps over the Ohio Valley to move southward. Warmest readings on Friday will be across the north and west where winds will turn S or SW. Areas closer to the coast and across the southeast will be a little cooler with winds staying more SE. Will continue with mid 90s in central VA and the Piedmont, with upper 80s to lower 90s in SE VA/NC NC and areas close to the coast.

The core of the heat will move over the region Saturday and especially Sunday. Guidance is quite similar to the previous runs showing +23C 850mb temps over the area Sat and Sun afternoon. This, combined with S-SW winds will allow temps to rise to close to 100 F across central VA on Saturday with mid to upper 90s elsewhere. This will allow heat index values to rise to 100-104 with the warmest in central VA. Luckily dew points are expected to mix out into the mid 60s Saturday afternoon so we are not expecting heat index values to be too extreme.

On Sunday, temperatures may rise a degree or two with more places likely above 100F especially in central VA. In fact, the NBM shows about an 80 percent probability of temperature AOA 100F on Sunday across central VA, as compared to 50-70% prob on Saturday. This should lead to heat index values to rise to 105-109 range which would be well into heat advisory criteria.
Regardless of the exact heat index values, all areas need to be prepared for an dangerous heat through the weekend.

SE VA and NE NC may stay slightly cooler with regards to temperatures for the weekend. However, these areas will have slightly higher dew points. As such, the effective heat index will be similar on Saturday and Sunday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly lower temperatures on Monday, but more humid, leading to another day of 100+ heat index values.

- A weakening frontal system may bring isolated to widely scattered showers or storms on Sunday night into Tuesday, but the confidence in widespread rainfall remains low.

- Flash Drought conditions developing.

- Temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 possible again on Wednesday before another front approaches on Thursday.

Models continue to struggle with any precipitation on Monday.
Although we will keep chances for showers and storms on Sunday night into Monday, many places will remain dry. Best chances for storms on Monday will be closer to the coast, but have still limited to chance PoPs. Most of the deterministic models have areas west of I-95 completely dry on Sun night and Monday.
Temperatures on Monday will be highly dependent on cloud cover and any rainfall. With this in mind, have kept the warmest temps west of I-95 where the precip chances are least with the forecast in the mid 90s. Low to mid 90s closer to the coast but it will be more humid so the highest heat index readings of 100 or greater will likely be in eastern VA and NE NC.

Main change to the extended was to ultimately increase temperatures for Tue and especially Wed. Latest NBM guidance suggests temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s on Tuesday despite the cold front passage. This ultimately makes sense given the downslope NW flow and still warm 850mb temps around +21c per the GFS. It will be drier, however, with dew points perhaps dropping back in the mid 60s as compared to the upper 60s/low 70s on Monday.

By Thursday, another cold front approaches and will introduce chance of showers and storms. This front may have a little more moisture to work with, but for now will keep only small chances for rain across the region.

Regardless of any tstm chances in the forecast, it still does not look promising for widespread rainfall, as many places will see little to no rain through the period. In fact, the latest 13z NBM probabilities for at least 0.50" of total rainfall from Sun- Tue are still only 10-40% over the local area. This will only exacerbate the recent dry conditions and set us up for what can be considered a "flash drought". More information on this can be found on CPC's Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or drought.gov.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 125 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours and likely beyond. Similar to the past few days, the SCT CU across the region will continue through the afternoon before diminishing by sunset. Mostly S-SE winds at 5 to 10 kt today become S-SW on Friday.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

MARINE
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions expected through the first half of the weekend.

- Elevated southerly winds forecast to develop late Saturday through Monday. Best chance for SCA will be Sun afternoon through Monday.

- Moderate rip current risk at all areas beaches continues Friday. At least a moderate risk continues through the weekend.

High pressure remains offshore this afternoon. The afternoon sea breeze is picking up a bit within the last couple of hours, but still remaining below SCA thresholds. Latest wind obs show S/SE flow around 10-15kt. Winds will diminish slightly overnight, becoming more southerly by Fri morning. Very similar conditions Friday and Saturday with S-SE winds continuing. S winds increase to ~15 kt in the Chesapeake Bay and 15-20 kt in the coastal waters Saturday evening/night. The strongest winds of the period are still expected later Sunday and Sunday night as low pressure slides well N of the area and a weak cold front approaches from the W. Peak winds are expected late Sunday night in the 15-20 kt range in the bay/rivers/sound and 20-25 kt range on the ocean. With frequent gusts of 20-30 kt expected, small craft advisories look like a good bet for most of the marine area (lower confidence in the upper rivers and Currituck Sound). Winds remain elevated through early Monday, before subsiding by the afternoon and evening. The direction turns northwesterly behind the front Monday night-Tuesday. Regarding tstm chances, a low chance is expected later Sunday, with a slightly better chance Monday with the front.

Seas are 3-4 ft S and 2-3 ft N this afternoon and waves are 1-2ft (up to 3ft at the mouth of the bay). Seas average around 3 ft for Friday and Saturday. With the increased southerly flow Sat night- early Mon, seas are forecast to eventually build to 4-6 ft N and 3-4 ft S. Waves also increase to 2-3 ft Sun/Sun night.

Rip currents: Rip current risk is moderate at all beaches for the rest of today and into tomorrow. SE swell energy and ~3 ft nearshore waves (could approach 3-4 ft at times across the NC OBX this aftn).
An elevated rip risk likely continues through the upcoming weekend (highest threat shifting to nrn beaches Sat and Sun with the south wind direction).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi47 minE 11G14 79°F 79°F30.34
44072 7 mi41 minESE 9.7G12 78°F 1 ft
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 14 mi47 minNNE 2.9G6 82°F 30.33
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi47 minE 14G16 77°F 30.32
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 16 mi47 min 77°F30.35
44087 17 mi39 min 78°F1 ft
CHBV2 19 mi47 minSE 9.9G12 78°F 30.32
44064 20 mi41 minESE 14G16 76°F 76°F1 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 20 mi47 minSSE 5.1G6 83°F 30.32
44041 - Jamestown, VA 21 mi41 minE 7.8G9.7 82°F 83°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi47 minS 8.9G12 78°F 78°F30.38
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 24 mi65 minENE 2.9 87°F 30.3363°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi47 minESE 9.9G13 78°F 30.35
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi41 minSSE 9.7G12 79°F 81°F1 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi47 minSSE 7G11 83°F 80°F30.31
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi47 minSSW 8.9G9.9 30.38
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi39 min 77°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 48 mi47 minS 8.9G12 79°F 84°F30.34


Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   
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York Point
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Thu -- 02:49 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:28 AM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:29 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1.2
1
am
0.7
2
am
0.3
3
am
0.2
4
am
0.4
5
am
0.9
6
am
1.4
7
am
1.8
8
am
2.1
9
am
2.1
10
am
1.8
11
am
1.4
12
pm
0.9
1
pm
0.5
2
pm
0.2
3
pm
0.2
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
1.1
6
pm
1.7
7
pm
2.3
8
pm
2.7
9
pm
2.8
10
pm
2.6
11
pm
2.2


Tide / Current for Messick Point, Back River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Messick Point
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Thu -- 02:43 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:23 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Messick Point, Back River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.3
3
am
0.2
4
am
0.5
5
am
0.9
6
am
1.4
7
am
1.9
8
am
2.1
9
am
2
10
am
1.7
11
am
1.3
12
pm
0.8
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
0.2
3
pm
0.2
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
1.2
6
pm
1.8
7
pm
2.4
8
pm
2.7
9
pm
2.7
10
pm
2.4
11
pm
2


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Wakefield, VA,




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