Bethel Manor, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bethel Manor, VA

April 15, 2024 10:43 AM EDT (14:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM
Moonrise 10:51 AM   Moonset 1:30 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 958 Am Edt Mon Apr 15 2024

Rest of today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.

Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tstms likely in the evening. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms after midnight.

Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Tue night - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.

Thu night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

Fri night - E winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 958 Am Edt Mon Apr 15 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure gradually shifts off the southeast coast early this week. A weakening cold front drops across the area this evening into tonight, before shifting back north of the region as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another, stronger cold front crosses the region by late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Manor, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 151053 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 653 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front drops south through the area this afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms possible for most of the area. This front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another front crosses the area Thursday with a stronger cold front then expected by the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 650 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Warm and dry through early this afternoon.

2. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon, spreading southeast into this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

Quiet wx this morning with high pressure centered well offshore of the SE coast, though it ridges back W into the FL peninsula.
Temps are generally in the 60s with some high clouds persisting.
Temps quickly rise after sunrise under a mostly sunny sky.
Highs (before any convection arrives/develops) will likely top out in the mid- upper 80s for most of the area, with lower 80s on the VA/MD Eastern Shore.

Attention then turns towards the severe wx threat this afternoon. A southward-dropping frontal boundary with likely provide enough sfc convergence to allow for the development of scattered thunderstorms after about 3-5 PM. Trends with the latest 6z CAMs have been to further slow the front so have generally delayed PoPs yet again. Otherwise, little changes to the forecast as of the 7 AM update. The one aspect of this svr setup that is still uncommon for this area are the steep mid- level lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) that are forecast to overspread the area today. These lapse rates can be traced back to an elevated mixed later (EML)
that was advected eastward on the northern periphery of a mid- level ridge over the Midwest states. This, combined with sfc temps well into the 80s and dew points in the 50s, will allow for 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by this aftn. Storm organization will also be fostered by unidirectional WNW/NW flow aloft which leads to around 30 kt of bulk shear. While the WSW sfc flow likely leads to some mixing and drying during peak heating (and thus introduces some questions regarding storm coverage), still expecting at least scattered tstm coverage given the favorable low-level environment for cold pool propagation and upscale growth. Coverage may be limited initially as there is also a small cap shown in soundings that will need to be overcome. In terms of the CAMs, most are in general agreement with the 3km NAM being an outlier, showing slower frontal movement and lower storm coverage overall.

The primary threats are large hail and damaging winds. Hail is expected to favored initially as single cell or transient supercell structures develop with the support of the aforementioned mid-level lapse rates. Hail in the 1-1.75" range is most likely in any discrete severe storm. As additional storms develop, upscale growth into clusters and/or a line is expected as storms take advantage of the favorable inverted-V low-level environment (DCAPE > 1000 J/kg seen in model soundings). This will then favor the damaging wind threat becoming dominant. Damaging wind gusts of 60-75 mph are possible in any storm. The tornado threat remains very low. SPC has a slight risk for most of the area with a marginal risk over the MD Eastern Shore. Will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO.
The highest PoPs and storm coverage are initially expected N and NE of metro Richmond, spreading S and SE into the US-460 corridor, Middle Peninsula, and Hampton Roads. As heating is lost after sunset, storm intensity and coverage will tend to decrease, especially S of the NC/VA border. Expect all storms to dissipate by 12-2 AM tonight with just a lingering shower or two possible. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s N to around 60 S.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 AM EDT Monday...

The front moves back N as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night as low pressure develops and moves NE out of the Plains states. The coverage of showers and storms is expected to be less Tuesday and mainly confined S and W of I-64 initially. The storm threat is highly dependent on how much instability can creep N, with the HRRR being the most aggressive with this. Will have 20-30% PoPs with similar chances of thunder across our SW counties. Highs Tue range from the upper 60s-low 70s E/NE to mid/upper 70s-low 80s further W/SW. Low-end chances for a shower or two continue into Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Mostly cloudy skies expected Wednesday with the front remaining near the area. This could spark additional showers and isolated tstms, especially N. Highs Wed in the upper 70s-low 80s for most of VA and NC. It'll remain around 70 on the Eastern Shore where the flow will be off the cooler waters. A weak cold front approaches from the W Wed night/early Thu which leads to a somewhat higher coverage of showers. PoPs are 30-50% though QPF should remain on the light side (0.25" or less). Overnight lows Wed in the 50s N/NE and 60s S.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Monday...

Remaining on the mild side heading into the extended period with on and off unsettled periods. Thursday continues to look like the warmest day of the extended period with highs in the 80s for most of the area (70s across the NE), despite the weak cold front moving through. Will keep chance PoPs through the day simply due to the cold frontal passage occuring during the day. Will also have a low- end thunder potential across the SE half of the area in the aftn.
Another (stronger) cold front moves toward the area later Friday into Saturday with additional chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms. The 00z suite of deterministic guidance is in somewhat better agreement with the timing of the FROPA. The GFS and ECMWF both show a Saturday FROPA, though the GFS is still several hrs faster. Whether this occurs in the morning or aftn dictates the extend of the tstm threat. There still isn't much of a high QPF signal as the front traverses E of the Appalachians so will keep PoPs in the 30-40% range. Temps Friday will be seasonable with 70s for most of the area and perhaps 60s on the ern shore. NBM guidance suggests warmer temps on Saturday, though this is dependent on the frontal passage and continue to see a large spread in the guidance and ensembles. For now, expecting 70s and 80s (warmest S/SW). Sunday will be the coolest day in the forecast period with temps topping out in the 60s, though some guidance suggests 50s across the N.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions to start the 12z/15 period. SW winds early this morning are 5-10 kt. Otherwise, FEW-SCT high clouds continue.
Quiet for the rest of this morning but a weakening cold front moves into the area by the afternoon. This is likely to trigger showers and storms late this afternoon (generally after 18-20z)
with strong wind gusts starting in RIC and SBY by mid- late afternoon, then extending SE to PHF, ORF, and possibly ECG by the evening and early tonight. Heavy rainfall and isolated large hail are also possible. There could be localized IFR- LIFR vsby restrictions in the heaviest rain. Outside of storms, SW ~10 kt winds are expected. Showers/storms should taper off by 6z Tue, with winds shifting to the N as the front drops S of the area.

Outlook...There is a lower chance of showers/storms Tue aftn/Tue night. Scattered to Isolated showers persist into Wed, though not expecting flight restrictions.

MARINE
As of 325 AM EDT Monday...

High pressure is off the SE CONUS coast early this morning. SW winds have diminished to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas are 4-5 ft N and ~3 ft S. The wind will continue to slowly diminish this morning and become WSW. With the diminishing winds, anticipate that the SCAs for the Ches Bay, Lower James River, and ocean will be allowed to expire at 4 AM.

A weakening cold front drops south this aftn/evening with the potential for some stronger storms along and ahead of the boundary (most likely timing is between 3-10 PM). At least a few SMWs will likely be needed for 34+ kt winds and potentially isolated large hail. Winds turn to the NE behind the front and then to the E-SE on Tuesday (staying sub-SCA through this timeframe). Conditions will generally remain sub-SCA for the rest of the week with some potential for seas to build to ~5 ft in the northern coastal waters by Thursday/Friday as another weak cold front crosses the region.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi55 min W 8.9G13 73°F 59°F29.89
44072 7 mi49 min NNW 3.9G5.8 65°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 14 mi55 min NW 4.1G6 65°F 29.92
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi55 min WSW 9.9G11 29.91
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 16 mi55 min 59°F29.94
44087 17 mi47 min 57°F1 ft
CHBV2 19 mi55 min WSW 11G12 63°F 29.85
44064 20 mi49 min WSW 12G14 62°F 57°F1 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 20 mi55 min WSW 4.1G6 74°F 29.91
44041 - Jamestown, VA 21 mi49 min NNW 5.8G7.8 68°F 62°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi55 min W 1.9G1.9 64°F 57°F29.93
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 24 mi73 min WSW 2.9 74°F 29.9249°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi55 min W 12G16 74°F 29.91
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi49 min WNW 7.8G9.7 62°F 58°F1 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi55 min WSW 6G8 70°F 61°F29.92
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi61 min S 7G8 29.93
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi47 min 56°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 48 mi55 min W 8.9G13 74°F 62°F29.87


Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPHF NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INTL,VA 6 sm49 minW 0510 smClear75°F48°F38%29.91
KLFI LANGLEY AFB,VA 7 sm48 minW 1110 smA Few Clouds77°F50°F39%29.89
KFAF FELKER AAF,VA 11 sm48 minW 0310 smA Few Clouds73°F52°F47%29.88
KNGU NORFOLK NS (CHAMBERS FLD),VA 17 sm44 minWSW 0810 smA Few Clouds73°F50°F44%29.92
KORF NORFOLK INTL,VA 22 sm52 minWSW 0710 smClear75°F48°F38%29.90
Link to 5 minute data for KPHF


Wind History from PHF
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Tide / Current for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   
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York Point
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Mon -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:04 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:45 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 03:30 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:44 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1.4
1
am
1.9
2
am
2.2
3
am
2.4
4
am
2.3
5
am
2
6
am
1.6
7
am
1.2
8
am
0.8
9
am
0.5
10
am
0.5
11
am
0.6
12
pm
1
1
pm
1.4
2
pm
1.8
3
pm
2
4
pm
2
5
pm
1.8
6
pm
1.5
7
pm
1.1
8
pm
0.7
9
pm
0.5
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
0.6



Tide / Current for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia, Tide feet




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Wakefield, VA,



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