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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 313 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 am est Sunday...
Through 7 pm..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Showers likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ600 313 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure will remain centered offshore through early Sunday. A warm front will slowly lift north through the area into tonight, as weak low pressure also lifts northeast along the boundary. Meanwhile, low pressure tracks across the great lakes region tonight into Sunday, pushing a cold front across the region later Sunday into Monday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 022000 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 300 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A chance for more rain is expected tonight through Sunday morning, as a weak area of low pressure slowly moves through the region. Mainly dry weather is expected for Sunday night through Tuesday. Cooler weather is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

Afternoon wx analysis shows weak high pressure centered along the NC/SC coast, with a southern stream low pressure system over LA/MS tracking NE toward the Appalachians. The flow aloft is SW on the east side of a broad upper trough. Fog has lifted across all land areas, but remains in place over Ches Bay, portions of the tidal rivers, and coastal waters. Scattered showers have moved into srn VA/NE NC by as deep-layered moisture continues to increase in advance of that low pressure system. It is mild but cloudy with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s (upper 50s NW). Dew points are in the upper 50s-mid 60s, so it feels much more humid that it has been during the past week. Dry wx should prevail in most areas north of I-64 through 7 PM, and showers will remain possible farther south. While mesoanalysis shows a small amount of sfc-based instability, am not confident enough to include thunder in the forecast attm.

The above mentioned srn stream area of low pressure will track NE from the Gulf coast states into the Mid Atlantic from this evening- Sun morning, bringing a better potential for a more substantial rain across the region (especially N/NW) tonight. The best chance of rain is between 10 PM and 7 AM, and have maintained likely to categorical PoPs (60-80%). Again, there will be a small amount of instability even during the night, which may result in brief heavy downpours (as PWs climb to 1.4-1.7"). QPFs through tonight are around 0.5" from LKU-SBY, between 0.2-0.4" from FVX-RIC-WAL, and 0.1-0.3" in far SE VA/NE NC.

In addition, a weak boundary is progged to move back south and settle across the area tonight (likely stalling N of I-64) as the main sfc low approaches. Fog is likely along and to the north of the boundary, and is expected to remain in place across the marine area.
Locally dense fog is likely in at least a few spots. Lows tonight will range through the 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

Low pressure will push NNE of the area on Sun followed by a cold frontal passage Sun evening into Sun night. Showers are possible during the first part of the day, and any lingering precipitation ends from west-east during the latter part of the day. Milder temps are expected again on Sun, as highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s (lower 60s NW). Also, some clearing is expected from NW to SE later in the aftn. Partly cloudy Sun night with lows ranging through the 40s. A shortwave trough will approach from the W Mon, before tracking over the local area Mon evening. Moisture will be limited, but the trough is rather vigorous, so at least an increase in clouds are expected, with just an isolated shower possible during the aftn/evening. For now, have kept PoPs aob 14%. Highs will still be above normal Mon, ranging from the mid 50s-lower 60s. Becoming clear or mostly clear Mon night with lows ranging through the 30s.
Dry/seasonable wx is expected on Tue, as high pressure builds across the region. Forecast highs are in the 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

Another potent shortwave trough will swing across the region Tue night into early Wed aftn, and could produce isolated to scattered showers (mainly east of I-95). Becoming breezy with NNW winds by Wed aftn as the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of low pressure deepening well offshore. Highs Wed in the upper 40s-lower 50s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lingering showers quickly push offshore by early Wed evening as high pressure will build into and over the region from Wed night-Thu night. The high then slides off the Mid-Atlantic/SE Coast on Fri (and will remain offshore on Sat). Lows Wed night in the mid 20s-lower 30s. Highs Thu mainly in the mid-upper 40s. Lows Thu night in the lower-mid 30s in most areas. Milder by Fri/Sat with highs in the mid 50s-lower 60s.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1245 PM EST Saturday...

IFR CIGs are hanging on at RIC (with LIFR at SBY) early this aftn, while conditions have improved to MVFR/VFR at ORF/ECG/PHF.
In addition, a few showers have moved into SE VA/NE NC. The improved conditions will be short-lived, as CIGs will drop to IFR-LIFR this evening/tonight as low pressure approaches from the SW. This feature will bring scattered-numerous showers to the area (highest PoPs are from 03-12z). There is a very low (but non-zero) chance of thunder tonight. In addition, will have to watch for fog tonight, which could result in VSBYs of 1SM or less. IFR-LIFR conditions (and isolated-scattered showers) will likely last into early Sun aftn before gradually improving late in the day as the low pressure system exits to the NE.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected Sun night through Tue, with an upper level disturbance bringing some clouds and maybe an isolated shower Mon aftn/evening.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

Dense fog is expected across all the waters through this evening and overnight. A marine dense fog advisory has issued through 12Z/7 AM EST Sunday, with visibility reductions below 1 NM, and occasionally as low as 1/4 NM, possible through this time.

Otherwise, rather benign conditions on the marine front this afternoon with light winds. Surface analysis shows a stationary boundary draped SW-NE through the Chesapeake Bay, which is causing the wind direction to be fairly variable. The front, along with a weak area of low pressure, eventually lift N through the area late tonight. Winds N of Cape Charles will likely turn to the E-SE at ~5- 10 kt after ~00Z. Some hi-res guidance shows the potential for a brief period of elevated easterly winds (15-20 kt) N of Chincoteague right around 10-12Z. However, confidence is low regarding this scenario. Winds gradually shift to the S-SW at 10-15 kt for all marine areas Sunday afternoon as the front moves further N. A cold front then moves through the area Sunday night, turning winds to the NW. However, winds should stay ~10 kt through the day Monday before eventually increasing to 15-20 kt (highest over the ocean) Mon night/early Tues as a shortwave aloft slides through with stronger CAA. Most areas look to stay below SCA criteria, however, a brief period of SCAs are possible across the nrn coastal waters early Tues. Another (stronger) cold front will cross the area Wednesday.
SCAs look rather likely from Wed aftn into Thurs morning as winds become 20-25 kt with higher gusts.

Seas this aftn are 2-4 ft with waves in the Bay 1-2 ft. Similar wave/sea conditions are expected through the middle of next week.
Seas and waves then potentially increase to 3-6 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively, later Wed.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>638-650- 652-654-656-658.

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York Point
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Sat -- 06:01 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:36 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:17 PM EST     2.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:00 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonrise
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York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

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