Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 2:54 PM   Moonset 3:35 AM

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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 125 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
This afternoon - E winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of rain. Mon - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Tue night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ600 125 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure moves offshore as another cold front drops across the waters late tonight through Saturday morning. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday, as low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary across the carolinas.

FXUS61 KAKQ 191801 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 201 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure centered over New England early this morning, will shift off the coast during today. A cold front will move across the region late tonight into Saturday morning. Low pressure will track from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Early this morning, weak high pressure was centered over New England, while weak low pressure was located well off the VA coast. Also, low pressure was over wrn OH with a cold front extending from the low southward through KY and TN. Onshore flow from the combination of the high and low to our NE or E, was bringing low level moisture and lots of stratus into the region. Temps were ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s.

The high and low to our NE and E will shift farther E and out to sea today through tonight, allowing the low to our NW to pull a cold front twd and across the area today through tonight. A backdoor front that is south of the area early this morning, will try to retreat back to the north during today, as the cold front approaches. The high temp forecast will largely depend on how fast that front retreats (and also how quickly the low stratus burns off). Have continued to trend the forecast cooler (esply near the immediate Atlc coast and on the Eastern Shore), where temps likely won't get above the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Still think it warms well into the mid to upper 70s across interior srn VA and NE NC. The greatest amount of uncertainty with respect to temps today remains near the RIC Metro/I-64 Corridor (where model solutions still range from the 60s to lower 70s).

Rain chances will return this aftn. Rain will be sctd at first before increasing in coverage a bit more after 800 pm this evening into Sat morning. Any chances for tstms will likely be focused across the west/southwest portion of the CWA since the backdoor cold front will be retreating across the east, though still cannot rule out a stray rumble of thunder farther north this evening into Sat morning, due to increasing elevated instability. There is a low-end, marginal threat for severe storms across far SW portions of the area (Mecklenburg County), but again this will depend on how far north the front can retreat. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat with any stronger storms. This is not looking like a major rain event, or even moderate rain for that matter. QPF forecasts are still showing barely .10-.25" in a few spots, though that may even be a stretch. Lows tonight will range through the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

The front likely moves ESE of the FA by the middle of Sat morning, and isolated to perhaps sctd showers (isolated tstm) will likely linger over ESE portions of the region through late Sat morning into early Sat aftn. We should see at least partial clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn, as drier air filters in behind the front. As of now, forecast highs Sat will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

A stronger shot of CAA arrives Sat night into Sun morning. Low temps will drop into the 40s to around 50. Sun through Sun night, a southern stream low pressure system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states and off the SE coast. This means that rain chances will return, likely by Sun aftn across the southern half of the forecast area. Temps will likely be cooler across southern portions of the forecast area (due to clouds and increasing rain chances), with highs only in the lower 60s (potentially even upper 50s in spots). The northern 2/3rds of the forecast area will see highs in the lower to mid 60s (cooler across the Eastern Shore). Rain chances will continue over the srn/SE counties Sun evening into early Mon morning. Lows will range through the 40s to near 50.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 415 AM EDT Friday...

Any lingering rain will end over extrm SE counties Mon morning, as the low tracks farther out to sea. Under a partly to mostly sunny sky, high temps Mon will range through the 60s (warmest central and wrn counties). High pressure briefly builds over the area, then slides offshore during Tue, before another cold front brings shower chances to the region Wed into Wed evening.
Although it will be very cool Tue morning (upper 30s to upper 40s), temps should rebound nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
The cold front will push out to sea Wed night, with high pressure building into/over the area for Thu. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Wed. Lows Wed night in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Highs on Thu mainly in the lower to mid 60s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Onshore flow brining in low level moisture has kept low level clouds over the majority of the terminals today. Conditions have improved, though, with MVFR CIGs over most of the terminals and FEW-SCT skies over ECG. Clouds build back in and lower to IFR overnight as a front approaches the region. Showers are expected with the front, but expect these to be widely scattered. Once the front moves offshore Saturday, winds become northerly and clouds scatter out.

Outlook: Rain chances generally end after Sat morning, but return later Sun into early Mon, as low pressure tracks from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sun into Mon.

MARINE
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

NE winds have become more easterly this afternoon as high pressure has been building south. Winds are generally 5 to 15 kt across the entire area. Seas are still running 5 ft over the northern coastal waters and 4 ft from Cape Charles south. The Bay was around 1 foot with some 2 ft. With 5 ft seas persisting over the northern waters and another surge expected late tonight into early Sat, have extended the SCA into Sat morning. SCA elsewhere have been allowed to expire.

Another cold front drops across the region late tonight (Fri night) into Saturday morning. High res models have slowed the timing of the surge more into Saturday morning. Winds swing around to the NW then NNW post frontal Sat morning, but should be mainly sub- SCA given weak cool-air advection though a brief period of gusts to 20 kt is likely on the Bay and ocean. Winds should decrease some Sat afternoon ~10 to 15 kt.

Winds become NW to N again Saturday night as yet another front pushes south and again increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, but look to remain below sub- SCA at this time. This surge is also relatively short lived and winds should decrease some later on Sunday.

A area of low pressure moves off the Carolinas late Sunday and into early next week supporting a persistent NE flow and building seas. Would not be surprised to eventually (briefly)
need SCA over southern coastal waters from Cape Charles south by the time we get into the day on Monday, but will keep just below for now.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for Dorchester as the last high tide cycle over preformed. Lewisetta also touched minor flood levels with most other stations in the upper Bay just below flood. Two strong flood tides with little to no ebb tide has increased water levels in the upper Bay. The current ebb tide at the mouth of the Bay is also starting out weak and another round of high tides at or near minor flood levels are likely in the upper bay later this evening. Tides should slowly decrease after this evening. Any minor tidal flooding will be limited to locations from Windmill Point north.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.

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York Point
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Fri -- 12:51 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:58 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:16 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:18 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

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