Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bethel Manor, VA

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Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:24PM Friday July 19, 2019 5:56 AM EDT (09:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:23PMMoonset 7:22AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 345 Am Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Through 7 am..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tstms likely. Showers likely.
Tue..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 345 Am Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will remain off the southeast coast through the weekend. A cold front will move across the waters Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise, hot and humid weather will continue until Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Manor, VA
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location: 37.17, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 190822
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
422 am edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains off the southeast coast through the weekend.

A trough of low pressure lingers over the carolinas today,
before settling across the deep south over the weekend. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday, ending the current heat
wave.

Near term through tonight
As of 405 am edt Friday...

some adjustments have been made to heat headlines through the
weekend...

1. Heat advisory area continues for ric metro va
piedmont northern neck and lower eastern shore. Heat index
values ~105-108 today... With heat index values ~110-112 possible
both Sat sun, with heat indices remaining in the 80s to around
90 even through the overnight period, providing little
opportunity for cooling relief. This enhances the potential for
heat-related issues, especially in urbanized areas. For that
reason, this same area has been also placed into an excessive
heat watch.

2. Tier of counties from prince george over to charles
city gloucester and mathews has been added to the existing
excessive heat warning. Heat index values of ~110 today with
high confidence of similar values persisting through the
weekend. Also, this is the 3rd 4th day of heat headlines for
much of this area, and the building toll of heat... Again,
especially for those who work out of doors or with limited
means for cooling... Cannot be minimized, especially with the
hottest days of this stretch still to come over the weekend.

For today, partly to mostly sunny and continued hot. Building
heat ridge will bring increasing thicknesses and a modest warmup
from the already hot temperatures we've been experiencing this
week. Given limited mixing, TD will remain stagnant for most of
the day, especially over the coastal plain. High temps today in
the mid to upper 90s, some slightly "cooler" low 90s along the
immediate coast. Heat index values 105-108 inland, ~110 se
coast.

There is the chance for some additional sct showers storms this
aftn into early evening. Pops will mainly be across the southern
tier of the area, as the lingering sfc trough over the carolinas
into the southeast will once again be the focus for some late
day convection.

Isolated evening convection once again wanes with loss of
heating. Clearing, but remaining very warm and muggy. Lows only
in the mid to upper 70s, with urban areas likely lingering
around 80 and providing very little relief for the aftn hot
temperatures.

Short term Saturday through Sunday
As of 405 am edt Thursday...

the heat peaks over the weekend. Mostly sunny hot and humid
with highs upr 90s-lwr 100s except mid 90s along the coast.

Remaining dry over most of the area with strong capping
inversion in place thanks to the sprawling heat ridge. Widespread
heat index values btwn 110-115 will likely lead to most if not
all of the excessive heat watch being converted to an excessive
heat warning. Very warm and muggy again Sat night. Lows mid 70s-
lwr 80s, with heat indices falling no lower than the mid 80s-
low 90s.

Continued mostly sunny hot and humid sun. Ec GFS mos each came
up for temps again on Sunday with 00z 19 suite, which makes
sense as compressional heating is likely to be maximized Sunday
ahead of the approaching front. A weakness in the upper ridge
will likely allow for some late aftn sct convection to drift
east off the blue ridge and into the piedmont, providing some
cooling rain for some. A 20-30 pop has been maintained inland
for now, with more widespread storms back in the blue ridge to
the west. Highs in the upper 90s to around 100 once again with
heat index values 108-112.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 415 pm edt Thursday...

guidance continues to suggest a fairly abrupt cool down by
Tuesday as a long wave trough sets up across the eastern half of
the country. The associated cold front will approach the area
Monday and then slowly move across the region Monday afternoon
into Monday night. This will lead to another hot day on Monday,
although likely not as hot as Saturday and Sunday, especially
due the clouds and numerous showers storms in the afternoon in
advance of the front. Still, expect highs well into the lower-
mid 90s with dew points in the middle 70s, so especially the
eastern half of the forecast area may need another heat related
headline. In addition, with the frontal passage, there is
certainly a risk for severe weather with stronger wind fields
aloft due to the lowering heights.

The front takes some time to pass south of the area with it
really not passing south of the area until Tuesday morning per
the gfs. The front then stalls south just south of the area
until it finally pushes further south on Thursday. As such,
there should be plenty of clouds and some showers especially
south on Tuesday. Will continue with chance pops across the
area, with likely pops far south Tue afternoon. Perhaps less
showers and clouds on Wednesday, but with the front nearby will
need to maintain chance pops across the south. Much of the area
dry Thursday, although small chance pops south. Highs generally
dropping back to the low-mid 80s for Tue and wed, then mid-upper
80s Thursday with more sunshine.

Aviation 09z Friday through Tuesday
As of 200 am edt Friday...

expectVFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites today into
sat morning. There will be a chc for showers tstms this
aftn evening over extreme SRN SE va and NE nc, where best low
level moisture energy lift will set up. So, ecg and maybe orf
could receive a shower or TSTM this aftn evening.

Outlook... Bermuda high pressure will start to break down late
sun Sun night allowing for some late day convection over the
piedmont. A better and more widespread chc for convection comes
later Mon thru tue, as a cold front approaches and drops acrs
the area.

Marine
As of 400 am edt Friday...

winds tonight have become westerly 10-15 kt across the bay and ocean
waters as a sfc low moves south of new england and a high pressure
located over the southeastern us. Winds will relax tonight (5-10 kt)
as the pressure gradient weakens over the mid-atlantic.

Otherwise, the bermuda high will be SE of the area through the
weekend (winds SW 5-10 kt). Winds will increase to ssw 10-15 kt
Saturday night into Monday. A cold front will pass across the waters
Monday night into Tue morning leading to winds shifting to the N to
ne for Tue into wed. SE sell of 3-4 ft will become 2-3 ft on Friday
in the open waters, with waves 1-2 ft in the bay.

Climate
* due to unrepresentative temperatures at the norfolk intl
airport today (the ASOS reported a daily MAX of 97f), the high
temperature from the co- op station was used for today with a
high of 94f. This matches close to surrounding sites (ngu was
93f and the va tech installed mesonet station close to orf was
94f).

Upcoming heatwave may challenge or break record highs and or
record high lows (esp from Fri through sun).

Richmond record high record high low
fri (7 19) 101 1942 77 2013
sat (7 20) 103 1930 78 2013
sun (7 21) 104 1930 77 1930
mon (7 22) 103 1952 79 2011
norfolk record high record high low
fri (7 19) 101 1942 84 1942
sat (7 20) 102 1942 79 1977
sun (7 21) 101 1926 80 1983
mon (7 22) 102 2011 82 2011
salisbury record high record high low
fri (7 19) 99 1977 78 2013
sat (7 20) 104 1930 83 2013
sun (7 21) 106 1930 77 2017
mon (7 22) 104 1930 80 2011
elizabeth city record high record high low
fri (7 19) 105 1942 80 2012
sat (7 20) 104 1942 78 2012
sun (7 21) 102 1987 79 1983
mon (7 22) 104 1952 79 2011

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for mdz021>025.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for mdz021>025.

Nc... Excessive heat warning from 11 am this morning to 11 pm edt
Sunday for ncz012>017-030>032-102.

Va... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for vaz048-060>062-064>069-075>080-099-100-509>517-519-
521-522.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for vaz048-060>062-064>069-075>080-099-100-
509>517-519-521-522.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am this morning to 11 pm edt
Sunday for vaz081>090-092-093-095>098-518-520-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Mrd
aviation... Eri tmg
marine... Cp
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 6 mi56 min W 9.9 G 11 80°F 1013.8 hPa (+0.4)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi56 min SW 1.9 G 5.1 78°F 84°F1013 hPa (+0.5)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 14 mi62 min WSW 9.9 G 11 79°F 1013.6 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi62 min W 12 G 14 80°F 1012.7 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 16 mi62 min 84°F1013.3 hPa
44087 17 mi56 min 82°F1 ft
CHBV2 19 mi62 min W 16 G 20 81°F 1012.5 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 20 mi56 min SW 6 G 8.9 79°F 1013.3 hPa (-0.0)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi62 min W 12 G 16 83°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi56 min WSW 11 G 14 79°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.0)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi56 min WSW 5.1 G 7 78°F 85°F1013.2 hPa (+0.0)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi56 min 1013.8 hPa (+0.5)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi56 min 80°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 48 mi56 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 77°F 87°F1012.7 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi62 minW 510.00 miFair78°F72°F82%1013.4 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA6 mi2 hrsWSW 87.00 miA Few Clouds79°F73°F83%1013.8 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA12 mi60 minW 310.00 miFair78°F70°F78%1013.2 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA17 mi2 hrsWSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F72°F76%1013.7 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA17 mi81 minN 010.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1013.5 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA21 mi65 minSW 810.00 miFair78°F72°F82%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW6SW9SW8SW7SW8SW9SW7SW9
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2 days agoCalmCalmS6SW6SE34SW7W6W5S8S6SE12S9SW10SW5W10W5CalmS4SW6SW8SW8SW8SW6

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:43 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:46 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.21.71.10.60.20.10.40.91.522.32.32.11.61.10.60.30.30.511.62.12.5

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.