Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bethel Manor, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Warm and dry this evening, remaining mild overnight with a southerly flow.

This evening, convection is ongoing north and west of the local area near/ahead of a cold front. This activity will continue to weaken as it approaches the local area due to there being much less instability east of the Appalachians. Will still need to watch the potential for a stray left over rain shower late tonight, mainly for far N/NW portions of the area. Milder tonight with a SSW breeze, leading to overnight lows in the lower- mid 60s in most areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Continued warm on Wednesday with mid to upper 80s expected.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are develop Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the best chances along and south of I-64. Organized severe weather is not expected, but a few stronger storms remain possible with gusty winds as the main threat.

- Showers and storms are possible across mainly N/NW portions of the area Thursday afternoon and evening with continued warm weather. Friday has trended a little drier with the cold front a little slower to approach from the NW.

The ridge aloft becomes suppressed to our south on Wed, then starts to expand back to the N a bit on Thu. Meanwhile, the backdoor cold front will likely cross part of the area (at least the eastern shore and northern Neck) during the day on Wed.
Very warm wx is expected across much of the area with widespread mid to upper 80s in most of our VA/NC zones (w/ upper 70s-lower 80s on the eastern shore). The main forecast challenge on Wed is timing and especially placement of aftn/evening convection.
Will have to watch any residual boundaries from dissipating tstms, as these could contribute to convective initiation over the local area Wed aftn. Also, the weak backdoor front could be a focus for scattered convection as well. While the forecast remains uncertain, it still appears that the best chc for tstms Wed aftn/evening is along and especially south of I-64. Precip chances are quite low across north/northeast portions of the FA (where drier/more stable air filters in from the NNE). With dew pts rising into the lower 60s by the aftn/evening, moderate surface- based instability (~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) will develop along and to the S/SW of the boundary. While organized severe wx is not expected due to weak deep- layer shear (less than 30kt in areas where the instability is more favorable), a few storms may produce 45-50 mph gusts which could cause localized tree damage. Mainly dry wx is expected after midnight Wed night with lows in the lower 60s in most areas (mid 50s on the eastern shore with weak onshore flow). The backdoor front quickly retreats northward on Thu as low pressure begins to deepen as it tracks from the Plains to southern Great Lakes. With the retreating front and strong low still well to our NW, and rising upper heights, the best forcing for ascent will be off to the north/northwest. However, additional isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible Thu aftn into the evening, mainly across N/NW portions of the FA. Very warm inland w/ highs well into the 80s on Thu. 70s are expected on the eastern shore with the flow remaining onshore for most of the day.

The above mentioned low pressure system will continue to deepen as it tracks NE through the end of the week, reaching Quebec by Friday night. This feature eventually drags a seasonally strong cold front toward the area late Friday. The models have all trended slower with the front, with PoPs now a little lower for Friday aftn (ranging from 30-40% NW to only ~15% across the SE). Remaining very warm Friday, with highs well into the 80s (perhaps upper 80s for the SE 1/2 of the CWA).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Shower/storms are likely on Saturday as a cold front crosses the area.

- The forecast for late next weekend into early next week remains highly uncertain given varying model solutions with respect to a slow moving upper trough that could potentially become cutoff.

The shortwave trough aloft approaches the local area late on Friday, before it tracks over the area this weekend. Significant model and ensemble differences remain with respect to the evolution of that shortwave. The latest 12Z/29 ECMWF is still forecasting it to become a closed upper low by Sunday and meander over the Mid- Atlantic through at least early next week, while the GFS and most of its ensemble members remain progressive and show the shortwave moving offshore with strong upper ridging building over the area early next week. The CMC is somewhat in between the GFS and ECMWF, depicting lingering rain chances into Sunday, eventually drying out next week.

Have higher confidence in the forecast for Sat with very low confidence from Sun-Tue. The highest precip chances are across the north Fri night, with likely PoPs all areas by Saturday aftn as the front crosses the area. A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday aftn/evening into the first part of Friday night, with modest (~30 kt) deep layer shear present along with a decent amount of instability, and this could redevelop across the E/SE Sat aftn. The main threat will likely be locally damaging winds. Highs drop back into the 70s well inland, but will be into the lower 80s across the SE.

The forecast for late this weekend into early next week depends on the evolution of that shortwave. In general, cooler temperatures are likely regardless of what solution verifies, but the chc for rain remains highly uncertain. If it remains progressive like the GFS/GEFS shows, dry and less humid wx prevails Sunday- Tuesday. If a closed low does form per the ECMWF, clouds and precip chances will continue through early next week. For now, NBM guidance still only has slight chance PoPs, primarily across the eastern 1/2 of the FA from Sun- Tue AM, and this is somewhat in line with the CMC through the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the 00z/30 TAF period. Mainly clear skies outside of high clouds are expected into early Wednesday morning. There is a slight chc for a few showers making it into far NE portions of the FA after 06Z, but this is a low probability and would have no impact. Did maintain LLWS at SBY for a ~6 hr period (from 03-09Z) tonight as a 40-50 kt southwesterly LLJ develops over the Eastern Shore. A cold front approaches from the north Wednesday afternoon, with an increase in cloud cover and the potential for showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Brief flight restrictions will be possible later Wednesday afternoon/evening with any stronger shower or thunderstorms.

Outlook: The potential for showers/storms continues into the first half of Wednesday night before diminishing late. A stronger front approaches the region late Friday, and is expected to move into the area on Saturday. The best chance now appears to be Saturday for widespread showers and storms, but there will be scattered coverage Friday afternoon/evening.

MARINE
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters north of the VA/NC border, and upper rivers through early Wednesday morning.

- A weak front lingers over the area Wednesday into Thursday with sub-SCA onshore flow.

- Small Craft conditions are possible ahead of the next front Friday into Saturday and behind the boundary early Sunday.

Afternoon analysis shows 1026mb high pressure has slipped offshore this afternoon well ahead of the next front, allowing local winds to become SW ~15 kt with gusts ~20 kt as of 3pm EDT. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

Winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt late this afternoon and tonight in the Ches Bay/rivers/coastal waters north of the VA/NC border. A few gusts up to 30 kt are possible across the northern coastal waters late tonight. The pressure gradient slackens considerably toward daybreak as the weak cold front drops south across the waters. SCAs for the southern bay continue until 10am Wednesday but suspect we will be able to cancel these headlines a bit early based on the latest guidance. Winds become N then NE behind the front and will average 5-10 kt through daylight hours tomorrow. The front is forecast to linger over the area tomorrow night into Thursday with E or ESE winds 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and a few storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon/evening, especially across the southern 2/3 of the area. The front lifts back to the north late Thursday with SE winds strengthening to 10-15 kt by late afternoon behind the boundary. Winds increase to SW 15-20 kt early Friday with SCA headlines possible, especially in the Ches Bay and lower James River overnight. Winds may fall off a bit during the late morning into the afternoon Friday before strengthening again late afternoon into the overnight. The front crosses the waters late Saturday into early Sunday with additional SCA conditions possible.

Waves will increase to 2-3 ft this evening and tonight, becoming 1-2 ft for Wednesday and Thursday. Seas build to 4-6 ft from the mouth of the bay northward tonight, decreasing back to 2-3 Wednesday and Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631- 638-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656.