Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rustburg, VA

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather will persist through the rest of this week and into upcoming weekend with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with marginal risks of excessive rainfall for all or portions of the area.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather will persist through the rest of this week and into upcoming weekend with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with marginal risks of excessive rainfall for all or portions of the area.

As the previous upper cutoff low has dampened into the large scale flow aloft the area will remain between the Bermuda high off to the east and a upper longwave trough to the west. This setup allows for an ongoing south to southwesterly fetch maintaining ample deep layer moisture advecting northward. With no sign of any main feature or wave traversing across the area, the forcing mechanism for convection will largely be daytime heating and orographic lift keeping the greatest chances across the mountains each day through the rest of the work week. High PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range will support hydrometeor loading within showers and storms to be efficient rain producers and allow for isolated flash flooding potential as well. See the hydrology section below for more details.

A weak shortwave along more zonal flow is progged to approach the area Saturday into Saturday night that may focus more widespread or organized convection, otherwise chances for showers and storms decrease some for Sunday into next week though development is still possible mainly in the mountains.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening may reduce vsbys or cause VRB gusts for most of the sites, then for overnight into tomorrow morning expect IFR and lower cigs to develop across most of the sites as well along with typical valley fog and reduced vsby potential for LWB. Winds becoming south to southwest under 10 kts during the daytime periods and light to calm in the overnight. Scattered showers and storms expected again for tomorrow.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Forecast persistence through the end of the week and weekend with moist unstable airmass contributing to daily threat of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Overnight fog development also expected with greatest concentration within the mountain valleys.

HYDROLOGY
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall the next several days. Repeated chances of showers and thunderstorms amidst a moist air mass will persist the remainder of this week.
Not a lot of confidence in the details for any particular location.

PWAT values expected to remain in the 1.50" to 2.00" range. High ambient moisture will produce very efficient rainfall rates which could exceed 2-3 inches per hour. Urban areas and along mountainous terrain will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding.

Antecedent soil conditions are gradually turning wetter across the area, but there are still considerable rainfall deficits across the Piedmont.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.