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FXUS61 KRNK 050809 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 309 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong low pressure system will cross the region through Wednesday, bringing some accumulating snow to the mountains, and rain showers elsewhere. Much colder air filters in for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures rebound some for Thursday through Saturday with dry weather. Rain chances increase once again Saturday night into Sunday night, with some snow mixing in for the mountains late.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Cooler temperatures with increasing clouds today and tonight.

2. Rain and snow showers beginning this afternoon and evening.

3. Winter weather advisory in effect for the W. Greenbrier Co.
in WV, and parts of the southern Blue Ridge.

A positively-tilted trough enters the OH and TN Valleys today, with the main axis pushing through our forecast area by Wednesday morning. Showers should develop beginning this afternoon and evening, mainly for the mountains, but eventually spilling towards the foothills and piedmont overnight into Wednesday morning as short wave energy crosses the area.
Accompanying this system will be Arctic air spilling straight out of northern Canada, with the coldest temperatures holding off until Wednesday/Wednesday night after the frontal passage.
There will still be plenty of cold air to aid in a transition to snow showers tonight, especially for the higher elevations.
Parts of the WV mountains may begin as snow this afternoon.

Kept the amounts close to previous forecasts, with the highest accumulations expected for western Greenbrier County, where locally 3-5 inches of snow is expected for elevations above 3,000 feet. Looking for 1 to 3 inches in accumulation for the higher ridges of Virginia into North Carolina along the southern Blue Ridge. These numbers supported a winter weather advisory for western Greenbrier County in WV.

Gusty NW winds will begin to increase around daybreak, with some gusts to 25 mph on the ridges. These winds could carry a few snowflakes south of I-81 and east of I-77, but most of the accumulating snow will be to the north and west. Areas to the south and east will more likely see rain showers. That said, PWATs only increase to between 0.30-0.40", so any QPF/liquid precipitation will be light.

Today highs will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s for the mountains and foothills, with low to mid 50s for the piedmont of VA and NC. Lows tonight will not be that different to this morning, with 20s and 30s, and slightly warmer readings on the ridges.

Confidence in the near term forecast is moderate, lower for total snowfall amounts.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 205 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Mountain Snow showers and gusty winds Wednesday.
2. Temperatures getting colder through the period.

A fast moving upper level trough and associated cold front will move across the Appalachians Wednesday morning. There is enough moisture and lift to overcome downsloping to allow the precipitation to push into the east. In collaboration with AKQ and LWX, added a light chance of sleet in the east for small window Wednesday morning.

Northwesterly wind shift with the frontal passage will draw moisture off Lake Michigan towards the central Appalachians.
This will result in snow showers mainly for the mountains. The highest accumulations will occur along the higher ridges from southeast West Virginia to northwest North Carolina. Highest storm accumulations are expected for western Greenbrier County, where locally 5 inches snowfall are expected for elevations above 3,000 feet. Looking for 1 to around 2 inches accumulation for the higher ridges of Virginia into North Carolina, with amounts tapering down to a dusting or less toward the crest of the Blue Ridge.

In addition to snow, winds will remain gusty Wednesday, with gusts in the 30 mph to locally 45 mph range possible across the ridges, including along the crest of the Blue Ridge. A few highest locations may be near wind advisory levels.

Upslope snow showers and snow flurries should decrease into Wednesday night as high pressure approaches from the west, cutting off the moisture. High pressure will move east across our region Thursday into Thursday night.

High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 20s in the northwest mountains to the lower 50s in the Piedmont. Low temperatures Wednesday will vary from the teens in the mountains to the mid 20s in the Piedmont. As the high shifts east Thursday, winds will become more southerly allowing temperatures to moderate to near normal with readings from the lower 40s in the mountains to the lower to mid 50s in the Piedmont. Low temperatures Thursday night will generally be in the mid 20s to the lower 30s.

Forecast confidence moderate in the Short Term Forecast period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 205 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather Friday, then precipitation returns Saturday and Sunday.
2. Mainly dry Monday and Tuesday.
3.Temperatures moderate to near to slightly above normal.

After a dry Friday, the next chance for precipitation arrives around Saturday night as a 500mb trough deepens over the southwest US and tracks eastward. However, the ensemble solutions continue to indicate Sunday as the most likely day for rainfall. There may be a chance for a few thunderstorms, as the base of the upper trough rotates across our region. Will keep the mention of thunder out for Grids for now. By Sunday night, there is the chance for rain and snow showers in the western mountains. But the moisture tapers off quickly early next week.

Highs will generally be in the 50s, to the lower 60 in the east through Saturday. Then, temperatures cool into the 40s and 50s for Sunday into Tuesday.

Low temperatures will drop into the upper 30s in the west and mid 40s in the east into Saturday night. Then, low temperatures will cool into 20s and 30s for early next week.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Long Term Period.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 AM EST Tuesday...

Stratus had pushed into BLF and LWB this morning, and was close to affecting BCB and ROA, but was having a hard time making it any farther than northern Montgomery and Roanoke Counties. We will see multiple low and mid decks today before MVFR clouds develop and spread south between 17-21Z, with most -SHRA/-SHSN just affecting BLF/LWB through this afternoon, before spreading south and east to the other TAF sites in the late afternoon/evening. -SHSN looks most likely for BLF/LWB, but a few flakes may reach BCB/ROA tonight. Showers continue overnight into early Wednesday morning. Winds today will come up to westerly at 4-8 knots, and will increase around 06/09Z to NW 10-15 knots with slightly higher gusts towards daybreak.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A front with low sub-VFR conditions and much colder air with gusty winds is expected Wednesday. -SHRA/-SHSN taper off and mainly affect the western mountains. The strongest winds are expected Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours, and will be NW 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20-35 kts (higher speeds on the ridges and not at TAF sites).

Clearing is expected by Wednesday afternoon at lower elevations and by Wednesday evening in the mountains as wind speeds diminish.

VFR conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday.

Widespread rain and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected by Saturday night.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for VAZ015.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ001-018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ508.

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Falling Creek entrance
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 04:17 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:58 AM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:34 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:18 PM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Petersburg
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 04:25 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:54 AM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:42 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:14 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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