Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rustburg, VA

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming temperatures through the weekend. Limited fire concerns today.

2) A strong cold front approaches Monday, with increasing chances for severe weather expected across the region.

3) Cold temperatures return Tuesday in the wake of a cold front, and the mountains may receive some upslope snow showers.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming temperatures through the weekend.
Limited fire concerns today.

Tranquil weather expected today and Sunday with brief high pressure passing north of the area. Upper flow will begin to return from the southwest by tonight and especially on Sunday in advance of an amplifying trough ejecting east from the Rockies.
As a result, should see temperatures slightly above normal both today and Sunday.

Daytime mixing today should allow dew points to fall into the teens and 20s and with temperatures warming into the 50s and lower 60s, min RH values fall into the lower 20 percent range.
Fine fuels are now plenty dry given a full day of drying yesterday, but with lighter winds expected today, rapid fire spread potential should be on the lower side. Use caution if burning today as grass and leaf litter will be easy to ignite given the dry airmass in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front approaches Monday, with increasing chances for severe weather expected across the region.

A strong hybrid wedge is expected to linger across the region through Sunday night, and potentially into early Monday. Mid-level impulses tracking along the outer edge of this wedge will keep low clouds in place and trigger periods of light rain Sunday night. This precipitation, combined with a persistent southeasterly flow, is likely to anchor the cold air longer than many models currently predict. However, a potent weather system will approach from the west late Sunday night. Falling pressure in the Ohio Valley and a strengthening southerly flow aloft should finally erode the wedge sometime Monday morning. A deep trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley will then drive a powerful cold front across the region during the day on Monday.

This trough is expected to take on a negative tilt, supporting a Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) as it sweeps through. Severe weather appears likely, with damaging winds being the primary threat, though embedded tornadoes are also possible, particularly where the front interacts with the lingering wedge boundary. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed the area under a Slight Risk for severe storms.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Cold temperatures return Tuesday in the wake of a cold front, and the mountains may receive some upslope snow showers.

The temperature swing behind the front will be dramatic, with 850mb temperatures plunging from +10C in the morning to -10C by evening. Mountain locations could start Monday in the mid-50s before crashing into the mid-30s by sunset. Colder air will be deep enough Monday night to trigger upslope snow showers and flurries, with light accumulations primarily limited to the western slopes and elevations above 3,000 feet. Rapid pressure rises behind the front will maintain blustery conditions across the entire area into Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions will persist through tonight. Gusty winds continuing at the higher elevations, with occasional gusts over 30kts from the WNW. Will see a gradual decrease in winds through daybreak this morning. Some daytime mixing will increase winds somewhat again by the afternoon, but should remain at 20kts or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions will remain through Sunday afternoon, with gusty southeasterly winds once again returning on Sunday ahead of another cold front that will move through the region Sunday into Monday. This cold front will bring rain and sub-VFR conditions to all terminals by Sunday night, and moves out of the area by Monday night. There is the potential for strong to severe storms Monday afternoon with the passage of this front. Conditions look to improve to VFR again by Tuesday.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.