Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rustburg, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Clouds and shower coverage increase tonight. A few thunderstorms are possible tonight mainly across NC and southside VA. Winds also increase, especially for areas west of the Appalachian divide.

2) Strong front Monday with severe weather potential areawide.
Wind advisory in effect for the entire forecast area.

3) Cold temperatures and wind chills along with mountain snow showers return in the wake of a cold front.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Clouds and shower coverage increase tonight.
A few thunderstorms are possible tonight mainly across NC and southside VA. Winds also increase, especially for areas west of the Appalachian divide.

Vigorous upper level trough will amplify as it moves out of the central Plains and into the upper Mid-West this evening. At the surface, high pressure will stay off the northeast Atlantic coast but expect a shallow in-situ wedge to develop along the spine of the Blue Ridge with easterly flow producing upslope low level clouds and intermittent showers there.

Tonight, the wind energy from the approaching mid-CONUS storm system, and some elevated instability, will likely lead to more robust showers and a few storms mainly along/south of the VA/NC border. Models show wedge eroding overnight as flow turns to the south, but this time of year, it can be hard to erode the wedge at night, though this may be a case where the low level jet and strong warm air advection wins out. Even so, still have limited thunderstorm threat until the main front Monday.

There is a marginal risk of severe weather across far SW VA into NC mountain counties and portions of the Piedmont of NC/VA, but this is mainly for any potential wedge front induced wind/tornado occurrences. At this time, looks like higher threat will be farther southwest and southeast of us tonight across the TN Valley and southern NC.

Winds increase substantially on the downwind side of the western slopes of the Appalachians tonight per strengthening southeasterly LLJ, so issued a wind advisory generally west of the Appalachian Divide overnight for gusts up to 50 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong front Monday with severe weather potential areawide. Wind advisory in effect for the entire forecast area.

Powerful storm system will move northeast through the Great Lakes Monday, the associated strong cold front moving rapidly east across the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. This system is supported by a potent negative-tilt upper level trough, which will enhance atmospheric lifting. Ahead of the front, a surge of moisture will push dew points into the upper 50s to lower 60s, while a 50-knot south-southwesterly low-level jet provides significant wind shear and buoyancy. These conditions will initially support low-topped convection across the mountains from the morning into the early afternoon, where lightning may be limited but rainfall will be moderate to heavy.

As the system moves east of the Blue Ridge, more robust, deep convection is expected to develop in the afternoon and early evening. A Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) is likely to organize along the front, with damaging straight-line winds as the primary threat, though embedded tornadoes are also possible within the line. Reflecting the high potential for impactful weather, the Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the mountain region under a Slight Risk (Level 2/5), the foothills in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) and the Piedmont in a Moderate Risk (Level 4/5).

Winds fields ahead of the front strengthen considerably with southerly winds progged to reach 20 mph sustained with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. The LLJ aloft increases to 50 kts so watch for gusts up to 50 mph associated with momentum mix down from showers and directly associated with the frontal passage.
Stronger storms will have their own wind potential and will reserve wording for anything higher than 58 mph for convective warnings. In general once the front has passed, expect winds to diminish, then ramp back up again with the strong cold air advection Monday evening. That said, will maintain a wind advisory headline until the winds diminish after the cold surge.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Cold temperatures and wind chills along with mountain snow showers return in the wake of a cold front.

Temperatures across the mountains are expected to start in the mid to upper 50s Monday morning, before crashing into the low to mid-30s by evening as a sharp cold front passes. During the afternoon, plunging temperatures may cause rain to change over to snow, particularly across the higher elevations. This transition could affect the evening commute for all areas west of the Blue Ridge, where rain may mix with or turn to all snow. By midnight, snow coverage is expected to shrink toward the western slopes, with total accumulations ranging from 1 to 3 inches on the peaks and windward slopes, while mountain valleys likely see a dusting to half of an inch.

Rapid pressure rises behind the front will usher in blustery conditions Monday night, with the strongest winds gradually subsiding after midnight. By Tuesday morning, temperatures will have plummeted to the upper teens and lower 20s across the mountains, with low to mid-20s expected east of the Blue Ridge. Bitter wind chills between 0F and 10F are anticipated in the mountains, while the foothills and Piedmont will feel like 15F to 20F. Snow showers will taper off Tuesday morning, leading to a cold day with highs only reaching the upper 20s to low 30s west of the Blue Ridge and the low to mid-40s to the east.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Currently, most sites remain in a cloudy VFR status. Clouds are beginning to fill in and lower, however, as moisture is advected from the south. This will start to bring MVFR conditions across the board.

Winds will pick up later this evening, with southerly and southeasterly gusts being the dominant direction, gusting up to 20- 30kt at the surface. Higher elevation mountain sites will be on the upper end of that range.

Rain will begin to fall this evening as well, spreading to affect almost all TAF sites at some point during the night. Rain will be patchier come Monday morning, but we will be awaiting a line of thunderstorms to cross the area in the early afternoon, just outside of this TAF forecast period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A strong cold front pushes through the area Monday, accompanied by showers/thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe with damaging winds the main threat especially along/east of BCB/ROA. Aviation operations will be likely be impacted at times. All terminals will experience a downpour of rain and a wind shift, high likelihood of LLWS and turbulence. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the front may cause the rain to change to snow across the mountains Monday evening with gusty northwest winds continuing Monday night and into Tuesday.

Conditions look to improve to VFR again by Tuesday night through Thursday.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ011>020-022>024-032>035-043.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for VAZ044>047-058-059.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Monday for VAZ007-009-010.
NC...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ001>003-018-019.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for NCZ004>006-020.
WV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ044- 507.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Monday for WVZ042-043-508.