Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rustburg, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 945 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Stalled frontal boundary over the area will be the focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

2) Warm and slightly more humid conditions today.

Have a few showers this morning that have faded since dawn.
You can expect the main focus for more showers/storms mainly in Scattered fashion to occur south of U.S. 460 this afternoon.
Expecting better convergence across the southern VA area with Lingering outflow boundary from this mornings convection.
Look for temperatures to reach the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Previous discussion...

Scattered showers and drizzle continue to decrease this morning, leaving behind just scattered cloud cover. These showers are associated with a frontal boundary that will become stalled over the region today. This boundary will become west to east oriented, north of I-64 in Virginia/West Virginia. Depending on the amount of leftover cloud debris after daybreak will determine how much daytime heating occurs. For now, guidance seems to be in decent agreement that cloud cover will not be much of a factor, therefore should have plenty of sun for temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s by this afternoon.

Not much forcing for ascent other than the stalled boundary, but with plenty of heating and a moderately moist boundary layer, should see areas of rain and thunderstorms develop this afternoon. A few storms could be on the stronger side and pose a threat for strong gusty winds.

With loss of daytime heating, should see convection wane again overnight tonight. Lows will be mild once again, and areas that receive rain today could see fog develop late tonight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain chances persist each day of the period.

2) Above normal temperatures late week, returning to normal this weekend.

A low pressure system in the Great Plains will move northeast into the Great Lakes Region Thursday into Friday. At the same time, a Bermuda High off the East Coast will continue to keep southerly flow across the RNK CWA, and combined with the aid of an upper-level shortwave trough passing by, afternoon showers and storms will be possible, particularly west of the Blue Ridge for Thursday. Friday will see similar weather, with scattered showers and storms once again possible, mainly west of the Blue Ridge.

The forecast becomes murky Friday night and into the weekend, as models diverge greatly on how the front progresses through the area.
What is in good agreement is that Friday night into Saturday will be the best chance of rain for the entire RNK CWA The GFS has consistently shown the front clearing through the area by midday Saturday, with high pressure building back in behind it. The ECMWF and other models have shifted in the past 24 hours, and now show a cutoff upper-level low over the Mid-Atlantic hanging around into early next week, keeping showers in the forecast. The GFS seems to be the outlier, with it showing the cutoff low near Nova Scotia.
PoPs are kept in the forecast through the period, but lower to around 40% on Sunday due to the low confidence. QPF totals for the period are just under 0.50" for the piedmont, with 0.50-0.80"+ west of the Blue Ridge.

Temperatures remain well above normal Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 70s/80s. Saturday will see more cloud cover, leading to highs in the 60s/70s. Lows remain consistent, in the 50s/60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Low confidence in the forecast for Sunday into early next week as models show widely ranging conditions.

The uncertain forecast continues, as models continue to have varying conditions across the Mid-Atlantic. While the GFS has high pressure and dry conditions in place, other models have trended towards keeping the cutoff low over the area for early next week. While this is a dramatic difference from yesterday's forecast, models began to show this trend yesterday, save the GFS, which remains bullish on clearing the area out. This consistent trend increases confidence that a cutoff low is what will occur over the area. Therefore, showers are kept in the forecast each day, but PoPs are kept modest, around 30-40% through Tuesday. Tuesday night, the cutoff low finally moves out of the area, with drier weather returning.

Temperatures also will widely vary based on the synoptic pattern.
For now, temperatures are kept near normal, with highs in the 60s/70s, with lows in the 40s/50s.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mostly VFR this morning with a few terminals flirting with MVFR clouds for the next few hours. Clouds will scatter out through late morning, but likely to see CU develop again by the afternoon.
Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible, but low confidence in the coverage of storms so have left out mention of VCTS. As mixing increases through the day, will see westerly winds increase with gusts to 15kts possible in the afternoon.

Patchy fog possible tonight, especially in locations that may receive rain today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Friday-Saturday: SHRA/TSRA should become more widespread as a stronger cold front moves into and across the region. Occasional restrictions appear to be likely during this period.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.