Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rustburg, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1. Passage of a cold front will bring light rain and snow late tonight into Wednesday, along with gusty winds. Temperatures return to near normal for the rest of the week behind the front.

2. A system will bring mainly rain on Saturday night through Monday morning. This along with the moisture from snowmelt earlier in the week will make for plenty of mud. Snow may mix in for the higher terrain and the Shenandoah Valley, but impacts will be relatively low.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Passage of a cold front will bring light rain and snow late tonight into Wednesday, along with gusty winds.
Temperatures return to near normal for the rest of the week behind the front.

A low pressure system currently analyzed over the Great Lakes, with an attendant cold front from the Midwest into the southern Plains will continue to trek eastward through today, the cold front crossing the area tonight into tomorrow. Warm air advection ahead of the front will boost temperatures well into the 50s today, low to mid 50s in the west, and upper 50s to low 60s in the east. Combined with the mostly clear skies and plenty of sunshine, expect significant melting to occur across the area, especially in the Piedmont, where current snow depth is only an inch or two.

Light rain will accompany the cold front, highest chances for the mountains and in the NC Piedmont. Rain looks to reach southeast WV before midnight tonight, then spreading to southwest VA and northwest NC, with slight chances for rain reaching the NC Piedmont by daybreak tomorrow. Flow turns northwesterly behind the front, and upslope snow showers will linger into tomorrow afternoon for the Greenbrier Valley. Downsloping and drying winds will help to quickly clear out the clouds from east of the Blue Ridge.

A tightening pressure gradient between the departing high and incoming low will also lead to increasingly gusty winds, especially for the mountains tomorrow afternoon, in the 30 to 40 mph range, but below advisory criteria at this time. An 850mb jet also crosses the area tonight associated with a weak shortwave, ahead of the main upper trough, so will see some gusty winds over the ridges in northwest NC this afternoon, up to 35 mph or so.

Key Message 2: A system will bring mainly rain on Saturday night through Monday morning. This along with the moisture from snowmelt earlier in the week will make for plenty of mud. Snow may mix in for the higher terrain and the Shenandoah Valley, but impacts will be relatively low.

On Saturday, increasing positive vorticity advection will cross the forecast area in strengthening westerly flow. An upper low over TX will begin to close off as it moves towards GA/FL. An elevated warm front enters NW NC and SW VA from the SW during the day, with precipitation spreading east and north gradually. While the main low pressure system stays over the Gulf Coast states, the aforementioned elevated warm front and an inverted trough will spread precip over the entire region by Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure wedging in the northeast may act to suppress or slow precipitation development in the Shenandoah region initially.
Isentropic lift begins to shift south again by late Sunday into Monday morning, bringing an end to most precipitation.

As far as p-type, warm cloud depths look to extend to 5kft during the day, meaning a mostly rain event. Areas where the wedge lingers as well as elevated mountain locations will see snow mixing in Sunday and Sunday night. We may also see some freezing drizzle in the Greenbrier Valley early Sunday morning, before the dendritic growth zone becomes saturated. At this time, the 50th percentile for 48 hour QPF amounts are about three-quarters of an inch in SW WV, and closer to an inch or more in SW VA and NW NC. If any locations remain all snow, we could see an inch or two of snow for the mountains before warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday melt it.
This along with the moisture from snowmelt early in the week will make for a muddy time.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The region is currently experiencing mostly VFR conditions, though scattered to broken clouds have begun to settle into the mountains this evening. Expect cloud cover to thicken and rain showers to gradually fill in, leading to MVFR ceilings at all terminals west of the Blue Ridge by approximately 10 PM (03Z Wednesday). Conditions will likely deteriorate further overnight for Lewisburg and Bluefield as a cold front arrives, bringing lowering ceilings alongside the rainfall. While Roanoke, Lynchburg, and Danville are expected to maintain VFR status, these eastern sites will see broken to overcast skies through mid-morning Wednesday. By late morning, dry downsloping winds will assist in clearing the cloud cover quickly.

Aviation safety will be a primary concern overnight as a westerly 850mb jet crosses the area. This will create significant low-level wind shear of 35 to 45 knots for the western terminals and Danville. Following the passage of the front, gusty northwesterly winds between 20 to 30 knots will develop along and west of the Blue Ridge and persist through much of Wednesday afternoon and evening. Breezy conditions also possible at Lynchburg and Danville with peak gusts up to 25 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mid and high clouds will begin to move into the region during the day Thursday and into Thursday night ahead of our next weather system. Despite the increasing cloud cover, mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area, with the notable exception of lower stratus clouds likely lingering near Bluefield and Lewisburg. By Friday, conditions are forecast to deteriorate to sub-VFR as rain and snow chances develop, primarily focused along and south of a line stretching from Bluefield to Roanoke and Danville. Precipitation chances are expected to increase further as we head into the weekend, bringing a higher likelihood of persistent sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities for the region.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.