Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rustburg, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 820 PM EDT Sunday...

For the near term update this evening, all remains quiet and unseasonably warm with just some cirrus and possibly a bit of a remnant weak cu field lingering. There is low confidence in some isolated shower potential late this evening into the early morning hours as CAMs lack some consensus in development with what could occur as a weak impulse interacts with a possible boundary across the northern Blue Ridge. Still looking at some low stratocu nosing in from the NE for the early morning hours.
Little change made to the forecast and previous discussion follows...

As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Unseasonably warm weather continues for tonight into Monday.

2) A few showers will develop along the Blue Ridge late tonight.

3) Better chance for spotty showers on Monday night as a cold front approaches.

Passing high clouds across the lower Mid-Atlantic as a weak cold front passes southward along the Highway 460 corridor. This front will be the focus of weak and spotty showers along the Blue Ridge overnight, generally from the NC/VA border northward.
Temperatures overnight to remain mild under mostly cloudy skies.

Afternoon highs to remain above normal for Monday once again, with winds shifting southerly as a cold front approaches from the west. Maybe a few brief showers during the afternoon, with very light rainfall amounts. Rain chances increase however during the evening as a cold front approaches from the west.
Best rain chances will be across southeast West Virginia into Tazewell and Smyth Counties of Virginia by sunset.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Highest confidence of precipitation Monday evening through Tuesday morning

- Temperatures remain above normal

Split flow 500 mb pattern becomes zonal by Tuesday. Ripples of weak short wave energy track through the southern stream with timing across the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas low confidence. In general, much of the synoptic scale forcing stays northwest of the region. At the surface a cold front comes through Monday night then stalls west to east across the Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday before dissipating.

The position of the stalled front Tuesday and Wednesday favors a higher probability of precipitation across northern North Carolina and lower percentages in central and northern Virginia and southern West Virginia. Overall temperatures will still be above normal but clouds will limit the amount of heating during the day. Overnight lows will be especially mild, 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

Will have maximum temperatures at or below NBM guidance on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially over North Carolina due to more cloud cover and a higher probability of precipitation. Will also trim cloud cover farther north where a deep layer of dry air of forecast at mid levels.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Above normal temperatures continue

- No organized periods of rain

Friday night and Saturday the northern stream upper trough deepens, bringing a short wave across the Mid atlantic region.
Models differ in the strength of this feature but timing is roughly similar. 500 mb pattern amplifies Friday through Sunday, putting the eastern United States under an upper ridge by the beginning of next week.

DESI is indicated a large spread, 10 to 15 degrees, in the model output for the maximum temperature on Thursday. With much of the area expecting more clouds and a higher chance of rain, will trend toward the cooler side of this range. No deviation from NBM guidance planned for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 850 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions area expected through 06Z, with winds generally less than 10kts.

A cold front sinking southward this evening will bring a southeasterly wind shift this evening and tonight, with mainly MVFR ceilings developing from a KLWB to KBCB to near KDAN line.
Clouds will scatter by late Monday morning from west to east as winds shift more southerly, resulting in a return to VFR ceilings areawide. Wind gusts at some locations could increase to around 20kts and shift more SW by mid afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Shower and thunderstorm potential increases late mainly for KBLF and KLWB after about 21z then could spread east toward KBCB and KROA a bit later.

Confidence in this forecast is average.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

A cold front passes through Monday night with a surface high pressure to follow to bring VFR conditions back. This may be temporary as the passed cold front looks to stall in the southeast and its stall location may determine the spot and track of future storms.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.