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FXUS61 KRNK 022341 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 641 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Periods of rain and rain showers can be expected through early Sunday as moisture streams northeast from the Tennessee Valley, then a cold front over the Ohio Valley is forecast to move east Sunday, pushing the moisture to the east and off the coast. Much of the upcoming week will feature the passage of some upper level disturbances. A weak disturbance Monday will bring clouds and a few rain showers. A much stronger disturbance will cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and may bring some accumulating snow to the mountains.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 510 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Adjusted timing of rainfall this evening - Periods of rain tonight with patchy fog - Partial clearing and above normal temperatures Sunday

NWS radar showed rain has spread across much of southwest Virginia, southeast West Virginia, and western North Carolina.
Have adjusted probability of precipitation to reflect these radar trends.

Previous Discussion: As of 200 PM EST Saturday...

Unsettled weather is ongoing across the eastern third of the country with areas of rain and rain showers extending from the Gulf Coast to the Mid Atlantic. Regional radars indicate a large swath of rain advancing northeast through the TN valley. Model consensus is for this area of rain to overspread the the forecast area this evening and continue through the overnight...
heaviest along the I-81 Corridor where upwards of a half inch of rain is possible through early Sunday morning. Lighter amounts are forecast for the piedmont. Similar to last night, potential exists for fog and stratus, so restrictions to visibility may be a concern for traveling overnight and early sunday. Temperatures overnight are expected to remain relatively mild with lows between 45 and 55.

For Sunday, a cold front over the Ohio Valley will move east, bumping the deeper moisture to our east and providing for some partial clearing. Cold air lags behind the front, so temperatures may actually spike upward associated with the clearing. Model output statistics are advertising afternoon high temperatures in the upper 60s east of the Blue Ridge.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 220 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Couple rounds of upslope rain and snow showers Monday night and Tuesday night.
2. Temperatures getting colder through the period.

Broad troughing at 500mb will be positioned over the eastern US, centered over the Great Lakes through the beginning of the work week. A couple shortwaves will rotate around the base of the trough, the first reaching the area by Monday night, and the second by late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Rain showers will begin in the west later on Monday, but will likely transition to snow showers as temperatures drop to the low 30s Monday night into Tuesday morning. Westerly flow and downsloping will dry out the moisture as it gets over the mountains, therefore, limiting the snow showers mainly southeast West Virginia. The second shortwave approaches late Tuesday, with more moisture and stronger northwesterly winds. This will increase coverage of snow showers, along and west of the Blue Ridge.

As stronger 850mb winds associated with the first shortwave cross the Mid Atlantic, expecting an increase in winds and gusts Monday afternoon and into the evening over the southern half of the area, impacting the southern Blue Ridge. Winds will taper through Tuesday morning, but start increasing again late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will be on a gradual decreasing trend through the forecast period, highs mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday night, dropping to the low to upper 30s by Tuesday night.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 220 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Coldest day of the period is Wednesday, before temperatures moderate closer to normal for second half of the week.
2. Upslope snow showers in the west Wednesday, but then dry for the rest of the week.

The broad 500mb trough will deepen and progress eastward through Wednesday, and then upper level flow will become more zonal over the Mid Atlantic through the end of the work week. As the trough crosses the area, northwesterly winds will continue, keeping snow showers lingering west of the Blue Ridge. Surface high pressure builds in from the west, which will bring an end to the precipitation by Wednesday night. This high will remain situated over the area through the end of the week and into the week, allowing for temperatures to moderate after Wednesday.

Strong and gusty northwest winds will result from the tight pressure gradient and cold air advection through Wednesday, but subside through the overnight hours.

The coldest temperatures of the period are expected on Wednesday, with highs in the mid 30s to upper 40s, and lows in the low to mid 20s areawide Wednesday night. After that, temperatures will climb back into the 40s and 50s.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 635 PM EST Saturday...

Poor flying conditions can be expected through Sunday morning.

Light to moderate MVFR rain will cover much of southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina, and southeast West Virginia tonight into Sunday morning. Along with the rain MVFR to LIFR fog is expected. Ridges will be in the clouds and obscured.
Winds tonight will be light/variable.

A cold front will cross from west to east across the area on Sunday which will bring the wind around to the west with wind speeds increasing up to 5 to 10 kts and with gusts of 15 to 25 knots Sunday afternoon. Rain will end behind the front and east of the Blue Ridge clouds will clear out. In the mountains ceilings will lift back to MVFR with a few light upslope showers possible at KLWB and KBLF.

Have added LLWS to the local TAFs overnight due to a 30 kt low level jet from the southwest.

Average confidence for ceiling and visibility, Above average confidence on wind and clearing Sunday afternoon.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Aviation conditions remain VFR through Monday.

Another system brings sub-VFR ceilings and visibility back to the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Another front and much colder air with gusty wind is expected Wednesday, with sub- VFR at least across the mountains with snow showers.

Wind speeds will be lighter and dry, VFR conditions are expected on Thursday.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

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Falling Creek entrance
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Sat -- 02:13 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:25 AM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:03 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:38 PM EST     3.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:44 PM EST     Moonrise
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Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Petersburg
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Sat -- 02:21 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:21 AM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:11 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:34 PM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
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Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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