Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rustburg, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:07PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 8:32 PM EST (01:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:13PMMoonset 5:22AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rustburg, VA
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location: 37.18, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 250004 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 704 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will cross the area from the northwest tonight with a chance of showers across the mountains. High pressure will return for Thursday before widespread precipitation arrives for Friday and into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 704 PM EST Wednesday .

. Light Mountain showers possible tonight as a cold front moves through .

A cold front to our west across the Ohio Valley will drop southeast tonight into Thursday. The regional radars showed scattered showers along the frontal boundary. The HiResW-ARW- East, HRRR and NAM indicated showers will weaken as they hit the western mountains and dry air. This evening 00z RNK sounding highlighted the dry air with a PWAT around 0.23 and a west flow. Made some minor adjustments to temperatures for this evening into tonight utilizing the latest surface obs, their trends and blended in the NBM. Made some minor adjustments to pops and weather allowing for a few showers to work into the west. More changes later tonight.

As of 110 PM EST Wednesday .

Forecast remaining on track so far this afternoon thanks to the decision to go above most guidance for temperatures this afternoon, as temps east of the Blue Ridge are already in the low to mid 60s. No changes for the forecast since this AM.

Previous Discussion . As of 1135 AM EST Wednesday .

Warm Afternoon Ahead: Light Mountain Showers Tonight With Front .

Temperatures continue to quickly warm this morning with high pressure settled over the Mid-Atlantic today. No changes made to the forecast temperatures today, which should top off 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Ironically though, still not close to record breaking thanks to a notable spike in temperatures in 1943.

A SW wind should pick up through the afternoon ahead of a front that is currently pushing along the Ohio Valley and Mid-South. While this return flow should help ushering a slightly more saturated airmass, overall return flow looks rather weak thanks to the dry airmass in place it needs to overcome over the southeastern states.

Arrival time for the front remains pretty similar to the previous forecast, with earliest arrival being roughly 10PM. Any appreciable accumulation remains confined to the far western slopes, while more so just some traceable precipitation is expected further west to the Blue Ridge. Dry air that will remain in place combined with downslope drying should keep things dry through the event for areas east of the Blue Ridge: just an increase in clouds for the overnight. Temperatures through the night will remain above freezing, besides for the far western slopes where temperatures will drop below freezing: it's here that we could see some of the light showers transition to light snow showers with accumulations not worth batting an eye at. Shower chances drop off as quickly as they arrived by sunrise Thursday AM.

For Thursday, low level clouds in the west will gradually mix out while clouds in the east will already be decreasing when most wake. Behind the front comes cooler weather for the region, bringing us back to near normal for highs Thursday. However, we aren't completely down with the front because it stalls out to our south Thursday, and will gradually start to slip back northward, increasing our upper level clouds through the afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 243 PM EST Thursday .

An active end to the workweek as multiple storm systems parade our way .

Cloud cover will continue increase over the area Thursday night with high pressure sliding off the coastal Delmarva and our front remaining stalled along the southern Appalachians. This front will be the trigger point for pieces of shortwave energy coming in from the Midsouth/Southern Plains region Friday and Saturday.

Meanwhile our aforementioned area of high pressure above will leave a cold wedge of air in place for a brief shot of wintry precipitation especially at higher elevations Friday night into Saturday. Earlier model runs bring precipitation in earlier Friday but with the high slow to move east most of the model guidance is a bit slower due to residual dry air in place. As of now precip looks to move from south to north late Friday morning into early Friday afternoon mostly in the form of rain. As for the chance of wintry precipitation the NAM, Euro, GFS, and Canadian are all in good agreement in regards to keeping the wedge firmly in place Friday afternoon/evening with the bulk of our wintry precipitation west of the Blue Ridge. Highest confidence for any light accumulations look to be from the North Carolina mountains back into the southwestern Virginia and West Virginia mainly west of the Blue Ridge Saturday morning. Once again though this will hinge on marginal surface temperatures and a more established warm nose taking over aloft Friday night into Saturday midday.

The good news is that we look to dodge any sort of major winter weather impacts this weekend as temperatures warm with a warm front lifting north behind our exiting trough and out ahead of our next cold front incoming from the west for the latter half of the weekend. Overall it's all about the need for the umbrella and rain gear Friday and Saturday. Rain amounts will be on the order of a half an inch to three quarters of an inch of rain ending by midday Saturday. Some leftover showers will remain Saturday afternoon and evening before our next wave of moisture moves in.

Our coldest day looks to be Friday with the wedge in place we can expect highs close to 40 degrees west of the Blue Ridge with low to mid 40s out east. By Saturday everyone warms back into the low to mid 50s in the west to close to 60 degrees south of the US-58 stretch.

Confidence remains moderate in the short term based upon the strength of the cold air wedge that looks to settle in and overall placement of where the heaviest axis of precipitation will set up late Friday into Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 243 PM EST Wednesday .

.The pipeline of moisture continues on into early next week.

Our overall pattern doesn't really budge too much in the long term period. High pressure remains firmly entrenched over the central Gulf of Mexico and central Atlantic leaving us with continued chances for rain due to waves of energy caught in between. Our next shot of rain arrives Sunday as another front and resultant piece of energy moves our way from the Mid-South and Ohio River Valley. This should be the wettest day of the weekend with rain mostly throughout the day continuing into the early part of the new workweek as the front sinks through. Both the Euro and GFS allow the front to sink south by Monday afternoon leaving us with mild temperatures as high pressure to our north settles in. Highs on Sunday and Monday especially out east will once again be back in the upper 50s and low 60s while areas west of the Blue Ridge remain slightly cooler.

Beyond Monday the models get a bit murky. The Euro wants to bring another area of low pressure in with a resultant front from the Ohio River Valley Tuesday into Wednesday while the GFS keeps us under the control of high pressure. For now I decided to keep chance Pops in place with temperatures returning back to seasonal levels for the midweek stretch.

Confidence remains moderate in the long term period.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 637 PM EST Wednesday .

VFR flight condition will prevail this evening into tonight. Winds will diminish slightly this evening, but remain out of the southwest ahead of a cold front that will move into the region overnight. With limited moisture to work with over the area, KBLF and maybe KLWB will be the only TAF sites that could pick up some measurable precipitation overnight. Otherwise, only a brief light shower is possible for all other sites.

SCT to BKN MVFR clouds are possible in the west especially at KBLF and KLWB. Areas along and east of the BLue Ridge should remain VFR through the period. Following the front moving through, ceilings will remain impacted in the west while clouds quickly mix out for the east. Behind the front, winds will shift to the north to northwest Thursday. VFR conditions will prevail Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

Medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds during the taf period.

Extended Aviation Discussion .

Prolonged periods of sub VFR flight conditions are expected Friday and through the weekend with a frontal boundary stalled across the region. Numerous waves of low pressure will move along the front, bringing numerous chances for precipitation. Rain with Sub-VFR conditions are likely Monday with chance for snow Monday night into Tuesday.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VA . None. NC . None. WV . None.

SYNOPSIS . PM/RR NEAR TERM . KK/RR SHORT TERM . ET/PM LONG TERM . ET AVIATION . KK/RR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lynchburg, Lynchburg Regional Airport, VA14 mi38 minSSW 610.00 miFair57°F31°F37%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLYH

Wind History from LYH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4CalmCalmNW3NW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7S9S14SW10S17
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1 day agoW64W5SW7W5SW6W4SW5Calm4S3S6S8SW9SW10
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2 days agoS5S5S6CalmCalmSW3CalmS4S6SW3SW5S6S7S6S5SW3SW7SW11S7S9SW7S5SW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
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Wed -- 01:35 AM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:16 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:11 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:45 PM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.82.82.51.91.30.70.40.20.30.91.92.73.13.232.41.81.20.70.40.20.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Wed -- 01:31 AM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:19 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:41 PM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:15 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.52.62.31.81.20.70.30.20.30.81.72.42.82.92.72.21.71.10.70.30.10.30.9

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.