Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rustburg, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:14PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:36PMMoonset 12:53PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rustburg, VA
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location: 37.18, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 112330 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 730 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level trough to our west and surface boundary nearby will allow for better coverage of showers and storms over the next several days with some heavy rainfall possible.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday .

Scattered thunderstorms as advertised continue early this evening but will see a diminishing trend as the evening progresses with the loss of heating. A few have produced modest wind gusts along with pockets of heavy rainfall, up to 1 to 2 inches in isolated pockets but no notable issues. Patchy fog and stratus likely again late tonight, varying somewhat on where it rained.

No changes in what has been a very stable temperature regime with low in the 60s across the mountains, to around 70 east.

Tomorrow is looking at more or less the same pattern but with perhaps greater coverage of convection and a somewhat more robust rainfall footprint. WPC introduced a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for 12Z Wednesday-12Z Thursday. Neighboring office to northeast has issued a Flash Flood Watch up to our northeast border but have refrained from joining at this time. Wording in HWO was bolstered to mention some possible flood issues. Hydro is discussed in somewhat more detail below.

Highs will still run at mid August normals with low-mid 80s west, to upper 80s east.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday .

Looking to the second half of the workweek, weather forecast models still in good agreement of a weak upper level trough, perhaps closed low, stalling across the lower Ohio River Valley, while Bermuda high pressure resides off the Atlantic coast. This will channel increasingly deeper moisture along the Appalachian chain ahead of a cold front drifting between the Ohio River and the Interstate 64 corridor. Uncertain at this point whether high pressure across eastern Canada will have enough push to nudge the front southward across our area Thursday, but still expecting abundant showers and thunderstorms given precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2.0+ inch range Thursday afternoon, again indicating a deeply moist atmosphere.

By Thursday night/early Friday, there is better indication that the cold front will slide southward across the mid-Atlantic as a backdoor front, resulting in a wedging pattern that remain through the period. Given the close proximity of the upper level system supporting increased rain chances and the east to northeasterly windflow, lowered afternoon temperatures for Friday and Saturday by several degrees below forecast guidance: mid 70s to low 80s for most of the forecast area. Overnights will remain muggy as showers diminish in coverage, but do not believe they will dissipate altogether.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday .

Little change in the pattern through the weekend will maintain widespread shower/thunderstorm activity across the mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians, some of which may produce periods of heavy rain and possibly localized flooding. By early Monday, still seeing indications that a cold front will push across the central Appalachians to bring drier air, though spotty showers will still be possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 715 PM EDT Tuesday .

Per models and persistence, will lean toward at least MVFR to IFR fog at all sites, mainly in the 10-13z time frame.

More storms tomorrow mainly after 18 with possibly greater coverage than today so entered a TEMPO group during peak heating.

Winds will be generally light through the period.

Extended Aviation Discussion .

Diurnally driven afternoon storms continue into Thursday, but a front arriving with better upper support should lead to more coverage by the end of the workweek into the weekend. Will have to wait to see how far east the front makes it this weekend but could see some high pressure wedge and lower cigs Sunday.

HYDROLOGY. As mentioned above, tomorrow looks potentially more active hydrologically with the a WPC Slight Risk (15-20 percent probability) introduced for excessive rainfall, exceeding Flash Flood Guidance (FFG). 1-hour FFG currently ranges from about 1.5 to 3 inches which is not especially low and 3-hr FFG from about 2 to 4 inches. Typically, rainfall needs to exceed FFG by a substantial amount to produce actual flash flooding, especially in mid-summer. Urban areas being a notable exception. It will take some fairly slow-movers to get those kinds of amounts. As noted in the WPC rainfall discussion a confluence of factors point toward a favorable setup across parts of our area with high PWATS, weak steering flow and an emerging short-wave from the TN valley, along with peak heating and high instability. A short-fused flash flood watch may the best solution for indicating the flood potential for this scenario, although midnight shift will be evaluating the latest CAMS and high- resolution models. The latest available CAMs suggest that the more organized heavy rainfall may be up toward northern VA/MD area. And another round is possible on Thursday.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VA . None. NC . None. WV . None.

SYNOPSIS . WP/PC NEAR TERM . PC/WP SHORT TERM . NF LONG TERM . NF AVIATION . PC/WP HYDROLOGY . PC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lynchburg, Lynchburg Regional Airport, VA14 mi67 minSE 39.00 miLight Rain88°F73°F61%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLYH

Wind History from LYH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S5CalmS5S55S8SW5S5SE3
1 day agoCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33Calm3SE12SW6CalmCalmCalmSE4Calm
2 days agoSE4E4E3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW34CalmCalmS5SW5CalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
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Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:21 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:38 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:37 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.31.71.210.911.62.32.93.132.72.11.510.60.60.81.52.43.13.53.5

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:17 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:46 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:33 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.11.61.10.90.80.91.42.12.62.82.72.521.40.90.60.50.71.32.12.83.13.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.