Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rustburg, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:00PM Friday December 6, 2019 5:04 AM EST (10:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:07PMMoonset 1:37AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rustburg, VA
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location: 37.18, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 060914 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 414 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will pass across the central Appalachians this afternoon and evening, bringing light rainfall to areas mainly west of the Blue Ridge. High pressure will return for Saturday into Sunday evening. A deep upper level trough developing across the central United States will bring warm and wet conditions during the early half of next week, followed by a return of colder weather by midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 345 AM EST Friday .

Starting off the day with low pressure center near the NC Outer Banks and drifting eastward while a weak cold front approaches the central Appalachians from the west. Satellite imagery indicates mid and high clouds associated with the front already along the Interstate 77 corridor and spreading eastward.

Cloud cover will increase through the morning, with light rain showers entering southeast West Virginia/western Virginia around noon. Moisture ahead of this system is rather limited, with precipitable water values peaking in the 0.5" to 0.7" range. As such, believe that the most widespread rainfall will remain over southeast West Virginia/western Virginia, with showers then diminishing further eastward in the southwest to westerly downslope windflow. Rainfall amounts are expected to be rather unimpressive, confined generally to around a tenth of an inch in southeast West Virginia, tapering down to a few hundredths along the Blue Ridge. Can easily see portions of the Piedmont missing out on precipitation altogether. Despite southwesterly windflow, believe clouds arriving earlier in the day will still have an impact on heating and therefore stuck slightly below model consensus for afternoon highs.

The cold front will push across the mid-Atlantic this evening, bringing a northwest to northerly wind shift across the region that will result in clearing conditions. May see a quarter inch of snow across northwest Greenbrier County as temperatures drop before the upslope snow showers come to an end around midnight Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 245 AM EST Friday .

Saturday into Sunday, we expect an area of surface high pressure to shift from being centered over the region, to being positioned just east of the East Coast of the U.S. This pattern shift of the surface high, combined with the onset of the development of a longwave trough across central CONUS, will transition the low level flow across the area from having its origins of the coast of the Carolinas, and eventually from the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

After a relatively cloud-free period Saturday into Saturday night, the increasing moisture pattern will bring first increasing cloud cover on Sunday, and then isolated to scattered showers to the region Sunday night.

As we progress into the early part of next week, the trough in the central U.S. will continue to deepen, and a defined baroclinic zone will become established from the the Upper Ohio Valley southwest into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, placing our region on the relatively mild and moist side of this feature. Weak impulses are expected to ride northeast along this boundary, each one with the potential for bringing increased coverage and quantity of precipitation. The first of these will pass through the area on Monday, the next will just start to clip western sections of the area late Monday night.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will initially trend slightly cooler than normal Saturday in Sunday. By Monday, readings will be back to, or slightly above normal for this time of year.

Forecast confidence in this part of the forecast is moderate. While confidence in the overall synoptic pattern is high, the confidence dips regarding the timing and track of specific shortwave troughs caught up in the general synoptic flow on east side of the main upper trough.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 250 PM EST Thursday .

The timing of the frontal passage on Tuesday is not totally certain, but the precip should persist through much of Tuesday. Windy conditions will also accompany the front as it passes. As the colder air behind the boundary chases the Gulf moisture, there is a chance for some snow west of the Blue Ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday will see the upper atmosphere will assume a mostly zonal pattern as high pressure builds in to keep the weather quiet and relatively cool. Another upper trough will be moving across the CONUS, but its arrival is inconsistent in the guidance. Some models have it entering our region with precipitation as early as Friday morning, others hold it off until Saturday. There is consensus, however, that precipitation will be on its way late next week or early in the weekend.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1200 AM EST Friday .

Clouds will be on the increase from top down overnight as a weak short wave in the southern stream traverses the region Friday into Friday night. Ceilings overnight are expected to remain VFR and mostly AOA100. Ceilings will lower into the MVFR range by mid or late afternoon Friday. A few sprinkles or light rain showers can be expected by mid or late afternoon, lingering into the evening. Visibilities are expected to remain VFR throughout the TAF valid period. A front will pass through the region with the short wave, in the 23Z-06Z time frame, shifting the winds to west or west-northwest 8-10kts with gusts to 20kts in the west. Ceilings will lower in upslope areas to the MVFR or high end IFR range, especially at KBLF. Elsewhere ceilings will remain MVFR to VFR. Prior to the arrival of the front, winds will be light and variable overnight becoming southwest 5-8kts after 13Z Friday,

/Confidence in Forecast Elements/ Ceilings - Moderate to High, Visibilities - High, Winds - Moderate to High.

Extended Aviation Discussion.

As the low pressure system exits on Friday night, lingering clouds and moisture will take a while to clear along the Appalachian Mountains. High pressure should return to provide good flying weather for this weekend. However, the next low pressure system should arrive by Sunday night to bring widespread rain along with MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings and visibilities through Monday.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VA . None. NC . None. WV . None.

SYNOPSIS . NF NEAR TERM . NF SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . VFJ AVIATION . PW/RAB/RR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lynchburg, Lynchburg Regional Airport, VA14 mi71 minSW 310.00 miFair30°F21°F72%1021.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLYH

Wind History from LYH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
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Fri -- 01:29 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:55 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:42 AM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:32 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.31.710.50.20.10.41.11.92.52.92.92.72.11.50.90.50.30.30.71.52.22.6

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Fri -- 01:29 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:03 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:38 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:40 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.11.510.50.20.10.30.91.72.32.62.72.41.91.40.90.50.30.20.61.322.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.