Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vansant, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 901 PM Saturday...

Not much to amend to the forecast other than updating temperatures and dew points. Most sites are decoupling under high pressure, so temperatures have dropped quite a bit a most sites since sunset. The coldest temperatures of the night will manifest early. Temperatures may be a bit colder than advertised due to radiational cooling.

However, a pressure gradient drops out of the north over our area tonight increasing winds across the area. In turn, temperatures will gradually start increasing later tonight with mixing. Models have been quicker to bring this gradient down than is currently happening though, so temperatures will continue to drop so long as winds are light.

As of 1241 PM Saturday...

A stratus to altostratus cloud deck is currently moving through the area this afternoon as weak 500-mb vorticity flows along the base of a longwave trough. Conditions will remain dry through the near-term period with dry air in the lower levels.

The center of low pressure currently tracking across the upper Great Lakes will create a tightened pressure gradient over the middle Ohio Valley and Appalachians this evening into Sunday, which will lead to breezy conditions at times, with gusts occasionally reaching 40 mph in the higher ridges of the WV mountains. This will still remain below advisory criteria.

Gusty winds should gradually subside midday Sunday as the aforementioned low pressure center exits into the Atlantic, weakening the pressure gradient over our region. In addition, temperatures will moderate and feel more comfortable Sunday afternoon as 500-mb heights begin to rise ahead of the next system Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 120 PM Saturday...

A shortwave will move over the region Sunday night into Monday.
With a southerly wind flow, temperatures will be above normal for this time of year leading to the precipitation falling in the form of rain. Models generally showing between a quarter to three quarters of an inch. Some models showing a break in the precipitation for Monday afternoon and Monday night, although some models show a chance for some showers. Therefore a lower confidence in the forecast for Monday afternoon and Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1205 PM Saturday...

A southern system will ride along a cold front bringing precipitation to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Southerly winds in advance of the system will allow for above normal temperatures during the day Tuesday. This will keep any precipitation along and in advance of the cold front as rain showers. Behind the cold front however, colder air will move into the region allowing for an upslope snow event for Wednesday into Thursday.

There are some model discrepancies on Thursday night, with some models showing a clipper and others showing a warm front.
Although the models agree on a high pressure system building in on Friday, some models would have an arctic air mass coming in behind the clipper while others are milder south of the warm front. Model agreement becomes even worse with the next system over the weekend.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 623 PM Saturday...

Conditions are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. A few to scattered high-level clouds may move overhead at times.

SSW winds turning breezy overnight, occasionally gusting to 20 kts at times. LLWS will also be a concern overnight into Sunday morning, from approximately 00Z-14Z. 40-50 kts of LLWS will be possible at each of the terminals overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SUN UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Sunday night into Monday in widespread areas of rain. IFR possible in upslope snow Wednesday into Thursday, more likely in the West Virginia mountains.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.