Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clinchco, VA
December 2, 2023 8:24 PM EST (01:24 UTC)
Sunrise 7:21AM Sunset 5:14PM Moonrise 10:06PM Moonset 12:00PM
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 030020 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 720 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure brings rain tonight. A series of disturbances keep precipitation in the forecast through mid next week. Mild air this weekend gives way to colder air for the new work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 720 PM Saturday...
Forecast on track. Although rain was initially overspreading the mountains, and along a warm front setting up near the Ohio River where low pressure will track overnight into Sunday morning, it was also filling in in between, and will continue quickly doing so tonight.
As of 230 PM Saturday...
Mainly dry and overcast conditions persist this afternoon across the region amid warm temperatures by early December standards, with much of the region currently in the mid 50s to low 60s. The dry weather will be short lived, however, as another wave of showers moves into the region beginning late this afternoon through tonight as a weak wave of low pressure moves northeast along a stagnant surface boundary that is currently positioned across the far western portion of the CWA.
Rainfall will diminish west to east beginning late tonight through Sunday morning, as an upper trough shifts eastward and pushes an associated cold front across the region. Rainfall amounts through tomorrow morning will generally be under 0.50", with slightly higher amounts possible in/near the higher terrain. A rumble or two of thunder across SW VA and far S WV tonight cannot be entirely ruled out. MinTs tonight across the CWA will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Did insert some patchy fog into tonight's forecast across the valleys, as well as the higher ridges where stratus intersects the higher terrain.
Following the passage of the front, generally drier conditions move into the region amid breezy WSW surface flow. Wind gusts of 15-25 mph are possible tomorrow afternoon across the lowlands, with 25-35 mph in the mountains. Steep lapse rates tomorrow afternoon/evening lead to the potential of isolated showers, mainly across the northern CWA and in/near the higher terrain.
High temperatures tomorrow top out in the mid 50s to low 60s across the lowlands, with upper 40s to mid 50s for the mountains.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 205 PM Saturday...
The system that prevails through the weekend will sail into New England late Sunday night into the new work week, with shower potential wrapping up along the mountains. Hot on its tail will be a weak clipper streaming in from the west/southwest Monday afternoon. Rain will once again engulf the lower elevations while light snow showers persist along the ridgetops. Additional shortwave energy propagating down from the Upper Midwest will maintain this lowland rain/mountain snow regime into Tuesday as well. Despite the long duration of snow on the mountains, accumulations are progged to be minimal from Monday into Tuesday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 205 PM Saturday...
Ongoing unsettled weather pattern opens up the long term period with additional clipper systems traveling down into the Central Appalachians Tuesday night into Wednesday. Reinforcing cold air accompanying this disturbance will bring down temperatures Wednesday morning further west along the I-79 corridor down into the southern coalfields. This could allow for rain to switch over to snowflakes for midweek, but remaining as rain in the Kanawha Valley and Tri-State area. This feature will also yield better accumulating snow for our mountain zones.
A drier pattern takes shape for the second half of the work week once upper level troughing shifts offshore. Ridging aloft and surface high pressure will then promote quieter weather through the conclusion of the forecast period. A warming trend may transpire in response to low level return flow.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 720 PM Saturday...
Rain was quickly overspreading the area this evening, ahead of low pressure that will track northeastward through the middle Ohio Valley overnight into Sunday morning. The rain will lower ceilings to MVFR tonight and then IFR overnight, while lowering visibility to MVFR, all generally from the southwest to the northeast. IFR ceilings are most likely overnight into Sunday morning.
As the low moves northeast Sunday, it will drag a cold front across the area from west to east around midday Sunday. Ceilings will improve to MVFR late morning to early afternoon and then VFR late afternoon while visibility improves to VFR by early afternoon.
Light northeast surface flow in the middle Ohio Valley, and light southeast in the mountains, tonight will become light and variable as low pressure crosses overnight into Sunday morning, and then west to southwest and becoming gusty behind the cold front Sunday afternoon. Light south flow aloft tonight will become light to moderate southwest Sunday morning, and then moderate west to southwest Sunday afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility tonight into Sunday morning could vary from the forecast, with brief IFR visibility possible in heavier rain or fog. Brief, gusty showers may accompany the cold front late Sunday morning west to early Sunday afternoon east.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in snow in the higher elevations of the mountains Monday afternoon and evening, and then once again Tuesday night through Wednesday, when snow levels lower.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 720 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure brings rain tonight. A series of disturbances keep precipitation in the forecast through mid next week. Mild air this weekend gives way to colder air for the new work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 720 PM Saturday...
Forecast on track. Although rain was initially overspreading the mountains, and along a warm front setting up near the Ohio River where low pressure will track overnight into Sunday morning, it was also filling in in between, and will continue quickly doing so tonight.
As of 230 PM Saturday...
Mainly dry and overcast conditions persist this afternoon across the region amid warm temperatures by early December standards, with much of the region currently in the mid 50s to low 60s. The dry weather will be short lived, however, as another wave of showers moves into the region beginning late this afternoon through tonight as a weak wave of low pressure moves northeast along a stagnant surface boundary that is currently positioned across the far western portion of the CWA.
Rainfall will diminish west to east beginning late tonight through Sunday morning, as an upper trough shifts eastward and pushes an associated cold front across the region. Rainfall amounts through tomorrow morning will generally be under 0.50", with slightly higher amounts possible in/near the higher terrain. A rumble or two of thunder across SW VA and far S WV tonight cannot be entirely ruled out. MinTs tonight across the CWA will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Did insert some patchy fog into tonight's forecast across the valleys, as well as the higher ridges where stratus intersects the higher terrain.
Following the passage of the front, generally drier conditions move into the region amid breezy WSW surface flow. Wind gusts of 15-25 mph are possible tomorrow afternoon across the lowlands, with 25-35 mph in the mountains. Steep lapse rates tomorrow afternoon/evening lead to the potential of isolated showers, mainly across the northern CWA and in/near the higher terrain.
High temperatures tomorrow top out in the mid 50s to low 60s across the lowlands, with upper 40s to mid 50s for the mountains.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 205 PM Saturday...
The system that prevails through the weekend will sail into New England late Sunday night into the new work week, with shower potential wrapping up along the mountains. Hot on its tail will be a weak clipper streaming in from the west/southwest Monday afternoon. Rain will once again engulf the lower elevations while light snow showers persist along the ridgetops. Additional shortwave energy propagating down from the Upper Midwest will maintain this lowland rain/mountain snow regime into Tuesday as well. Despite the long duration of snow on the mountains, accumulations are progged to be minimal from Monday into Tuesday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 205 PM Saturday...
Ongoing unsettled weather pattern opens up the long term period with additional clipper systems traveling down into the Central Appalachians Tuesday night into Wednesday. Reinforcing cold air accompanying this disturbance will bring down temperatures Wednesday morning further west along the I-79 corridor down into the southern coalfields. This could allow for rain to switch over to snowflakes for midweek, but remaining as rain in the Kanawha Valley and Tri-State area. This feature will also yield better accumulating snow for our mountain zones.
A drier pattern takes shape for the second half of the work week once upper level troughing shifts offshore. Ridging aloft and surface high pressure will then promote quieter weather through the conclusion of the forecast period. A warming trend may transpire in response to low level return flow.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 720 PM Saturday...
Rain was quickly overspreading the area this evening, ahead of low pressure that will track northeastward through the middle Ohio Valley overnight into Sunday morning. The rain will lower ceilings to MVFR tonight and then IFR overnight, while lowering visibility to MVFR, all generally from the southwest to the northeast. IFR ceilings are most likely overnight into Sunday morning.
As the low moves northeast Sunday, it will drag a cold front across the area from west to east around midday Sunday. Ceilings will improve to MVFR late morning to early afternoon and then VFR late afternoon while visibility improves to VFR by early afternoon.
Light northeast surface flow in the middle Ohio Valley, and light southeast in the mountains, tonight will become light and variable as low pressure crosses overnight into Sunday morning, and then west to southwest and becoming gusty behind the cold front Sunday afternoon. Light south flow aloft tonight will become light to moderate southwest Sunday morning, and then moderate west to southwest Sunday afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility tonight into Sunday morning could vary from the forecast, with brief IFR visibility possible in heavier rain or fog. Brief, gusty showers may accompany the cold front late Sunday morning west to early Sunday afternoon east.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in snow in the higher elevations of the mountains Monday afternoon and evening, and then once again Tuesday night through Wednesday, when snow levels lower.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLNP LONESOME PINE,VA | 17 sm | 29 min | SE 06 | 5 sm | Overcast | Rain | 54°F | 54°F | 100% | 29.93 |
Wind History from LNP
(wind in knots)
Jackson, KY,
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