NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1035 PM Wednesday...

Made minor tweaks to overnight temperatures across the hills/ridgetops to better represent the developing ridge/valley split across the region. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 745 PM Wednesday...

Adjusted dew points down through the evening into early tonight given the extent of dry air that mixed down to the surface this afternoon. Given such, did tweak down overnight lows across much of the CWA towards the 10th percentile of central guidance, given another mostly clear night ahead outside of a bit of cirrus, which should facilitate another quick drop in temperatures following sunset given our arid lower atmosphere.
Lows are progged for the upper 40s and 50s in the lowlands, with upper 30s and mainly 40s across the mountains (some of the higher ridges will remain in the low/mid 50s given a ridge/valley split).

Some patchy valley fog develops late tonight, but given a slightly drier boundary layer, anticipate coverage to be less than this morning, primarily confined to the Tygart Valley and along the Ohio River in our far northeast zones. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 255 PM Wednesday...

High pressure continues to influence the weather across the region with unseasonably warm/dry afternoons and patchy BR/FG in the morning. Best chance for FG will be across the mtn valleys and EKN with at least some chance for valley/river FG along the Ohio River around PKB early Thursday morning.

Thursday will start generally clear, but high/mid level cloudiness will be on the increase by late morning into early afternoon. Daytime highs will be in the middle and upper 80s.

With lower RH and smaller increases in afternoon wind speeds, some elevated fire weather conditions could briefly occur during peak heating.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 242 PM Wednesday...

At the start of the period, our tropical system, Francine, will be lofted up through the Arklatex region Thursday night into the end of the work week. Strong ridging off the east coast will prevent its remnants from reaching far into the drought laden area of the Central Appalachians, dissolving over the western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. For us, that will mean lackluster rainfall amounts will extend into the forecast area, with the more nutritious QPF totals staying to our south and west.
Daytime temperatures will not budge over the next several days on the eastern flank of Francine, staying in the mid to upper 80s in the lowlands and the 60s/70s along the mountains. Low relative humidity values coupled with slightly breezier surface winds may not bode well for fire weather concerns under this drier forecast regime.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 242 PM Wednesday...

The next potential for much needed beneficial rain could finally aim at the forecast area late in the weekend into the new work week. This comes under the guise of a new disturbance forming off the Carolina coast, congealing with what little will be left of Francine that shears across the Tennessee Valley into the eastern seaboard. Global models frame the center of this new disturbance making landfall over the Carolinas early Monday morning and sluggishly pushing westward throughout the day. Northern bands of this system will be the best bet for rainfall opportunities heading into next week, but some uncertainty still exists for how much and how far inland precipitation can invade the region. Will retain central guidance POPs with this issuance along with temperatures cooling off closer to seasonable normals for Monday onward.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 820 PM Wednesday...

VFR is progged to prevail through the majority of the TAF period amid dry weather. Some patchy valley fog is expected to develop late tonight near EKN/PKB, potentially resulting in brief IFR/LIFR/VLIFR restrictions near dawn. Any fog that does develop lifts/dissipates from ~ 1130-1300Z, with increasing high level cloudiness throughout the day.

Calm or light southeast flow is expected tonight. Southeast flow strengthens on Thursday, with gusts up to 15-20 kts possible beginning late morning into early evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not develop at EKN/PKB tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU 09/12/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.