Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clinchco, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Active weather returns to the area through the rest of the work week and into at least early next week, with daily showers and storms amid very warm and muggy conditions. While widespread issues are not currently anticipated, isolated instances of flash flooding and sporadic strong wind gusts are possible each day with any heavier afternoon and evening storms.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another relatively quiet morning across the area, albeit on the muggy side, with just a few isolated showers currently across the northern mountains via southeast flow. Some patchy valley fog has developed thus far, but in general it should be much less widespread than yesterday morning given some scattered mid- level clouds across the CWA, along with H925 flow of 10-15 kts.

A more active weather pattern returns to the region beginning today. The main feature of impact locally today and tomorrow will be an upper level low, which is currently positioned near the Tri-State of GA/NC/TN via GOES satellite imagery. This feature will gradually be pulled northward across the area through Thursday as a broad upper trough across the north- central CONUS gradually progesses eastward. This combined with increased warmth/moisture across the area via an Atlantic/Gulf feed from return flow will result in increased shower and storm chances, primarily during the afternoon/evening hours with diurnal heating (PoPs generally 40-70%). Overall, shower and storm chances will be greatest in/near the higher terrain given slightly greater forcing via local topographic effects (anabatic convergence). The pattern then remains active Friday into early next week courtesy of a fairly zonal/progressive upper air pattern with periodic weak crossing waves. These waves atop the persistent very warm and moist low-level environment will result in continued daily shower and storm chances, once again especially during the afternoon/evening hours.

The potential for organized severe weather during this timeframe continues to look on the lower side, as the stronger kinematics generally remain north of the area. However, daily modest instability/forcing will support at least some strong storm potential. Progged soundings through Friday generally favor weak shear amid a very moist environment, which would trend towards a damaging wind threat via wet microbursts if stronger storms were to occur. Progged shear and buoyancy trends upward over the weekend, which could lend towards a slightly greater strong to severe potential, main hazard still being damaging winds.

The other point of concern will be the potential for daily heavy downpours with diurnal thunderstorm activity. By and large, PWATs of 1.6-2.0" are forecast through early next week.
Very weak steering flow is expected today and tomorrow (5-10 kts), with slightly more progressive flow Friday and over the weekend. Given such, localized flash flooding will remain possible each afternoon/evening given the potential for heavy downpours with slow-moving storms, especially in areas that have received heavy rainfall in the past few days. Given low confidence in placement and the isolated nature of anticipated water issues, a Flood Watch is not anticipated at this time.

Temperatures are progged to be slightly above normal throughout the period, with highs generally in the mid 80s to 90 across the lowlands, amid high humidity. This high humidity, dew points in the low to even mid 70s at times, will result in heat indices in the low to mid 90s across portions of the lowlands.
With warm overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, it is important to exercise heat safety during this extended period of very warm and humid weather. A robust shortwave diving southward out of Canada will attempt to provide some relief toward mid next week with the passage of a cold front.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Patchy valley fog across the area will lift / dissipate by 13Z.
ISOLD showers are possible this morning, with ISOLD to SCT showers and storms expected this afternoon and evening, which could result in brief MVFR/IFR VSBY at some terminals. PROB30 groups are coded into the TAFs to account for this, but otherwise, primarily VFR conditions are expected today.
Convection steadily dissipates after sunset, with mainly just the potential for ISOLD showers overnight. Some valley fog is expected tonight, likely more widespread than this morning, the exact extent of which will depend on rainfall coverage this afternoon/evening. Given such, did include at least a mention of fog in the TAFs, with some MVFR/IFR or worse restrictions expected in some locations.

Light and variable flow is expected today, with flow once again going mainly calm tonight. Gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/impacts of convection today may vary from the forecast. Restrictions with fog tonight may be worse than currently progged.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 08/05/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L H H L L M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR restrictions are possible with daily showers and thunderstorms Thursday onward, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. IFR could also occur in river valley fog during the early morning hours this week.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.