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FXUS63 KPAH 082353 AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 553 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- A potent storm system will impact the region beginning tonight...continuing through early Sunday morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms along with gusty wind will be the main impacts.

- While widespread hazardous weather is not anticipated, locally heavy rain and perhaps an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with damaging wind cannot be completely ruled out Saturday south of a Fulton to Hopkinsville line in western Kentucky.

- Following this system, an extended period of dry weather is expected. Temperatures will be chilly Sunday and Monday, but will slowly moderate during the rest of the work week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Late Week Storm (Tonight through Saturday night)...Our primary weather maker for the next week is developing over the southern Great Plains. A surface low organizing over the Red River Valley will deepen and race northeastward, reaching the Great Lakes region by 00z Sunday. An associated surface cold front will approach the region during this period. Additionally, a secondary low will develop across the ArkLaMiss and move northeast along the cold front into the Tennessee River Valley.
The surface cold front will sweep through the region late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Overnight lows tonight will only fall into the lower to middle 50s (near record warm values). With strong WAA continuing, temperatures Saturday will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s despite the clouds and precipitation. However, in our far west and northwest, temperatures will begin to slowly fall Saturday afternoon.
Following the passage of the cold front, temperatures will crash into the low to middle 30s by Sunday morning.

For the rest of the afternoon, isolated and light WAA rain showers will develop across the region. As ascent increases overnight, so will the coverage and intensity of the rain.
However, the greatest lift will only be over the forecast area for a short period of time Saturday before shifting to the southeast of the region. There will be a small window from mid- morning through late afternoon Saturday, when surface-based instability will try to advect northward towards the KY/TN border. Most model guidance confines this to TN. However given the progged significant shear, there is a small chance where an environment capable of supporting a marginally strong to severe storm could sneak northward into western KY, mainly along and south of a Fulton to Murray to Hopkinsville line. SPC has this area outlooked for a slight risk of severe convection, but still think that the greater risk will remain south across western and middle TN.

Regional QPF continues to trend downward as the axis of heavier precipitation is now expected to set up southeast of the region. Most areas north and west of the Ohio River are now progged to receive only 0.10-0.25" of rain. Locations further southeast are forecast to receive generally 0.25-0.75", with locally higher amounts possible in the southern KY Pennyrile.

In addition to the rain and thunderstorm chances, gusty winds will be present across the region through Saturday night. While 850 mb winds could reach as high as 50 kts, a persistent stable layer inversion will keep the strongest gusts from reaching the surface. NBM ensemble guidance indicates very low chances for wind gusts greater than 40 mph (Wind Advisory criteria). However, breezy southerly winds gusting to 30-35 mph are possible at times until the cold front reaches the area Saturday night.

Cool and Dry Next Week (Sunday through Friday)...Following the passage of the surface cold front early Sunday morning, precipitation will quickly end from west to east. Wraparound moisture may allow cloud cover to linger through Sunday evening across southwest IN and the KY Pennyrile. Elsewhere, skies will begin to clear. Despite the clearing skies, temperatures will be chilly, only reaching the lower to middle 40s with blustery NW winds. Low temperatures Sunday night will fall into the lower to middle 20s under clearing skies.

For the upcoming work week, temperatures will begin to moderate slowly under the influence of surface high pressure. High temperatures Monday will reach the middle to upper 40s...followed by high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s each day Tuesday through Friday. Low temperatures will be near or just below seasonable values, falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s each night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 553 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

MVFR ceilings over southeast Missouri and much of southern Illinois, including KCGI and KMVN, will gradually push eastward to the other TAF sites around 06Z. The ceilings will also be steadily lowering through the night and may reach IFR levels for a few hours in the early morning at KCGI and possibly for much of the day at KPAH and KOWB.

Showers will also be increasing in coverage overnight and through the day, but the likelihood of MVFR or lower visibilities will be limited in time and space. TSRA cannot be completely ruled out and would be most likely to the south and east of KPAH and KOWB during the day. A cold front will bring an end to most of the shower activity and any IFR ceilings as it passes southeast across the TAF sites from late morning through the afternoon.

South winds will increase through the evening and may become gusty overnight. The winds will let up after daybreak as the front approaches.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

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