Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Olmsted, IL
April 29, 2025 10:51 PM CDT (03:51 UTC)
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 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 7:03 AM Moonset 10:38 PM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olmsted, IL
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FXUS63 KPAH 292250 AAA AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 550 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon across southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and parts of western Kentucky.
- On and off showers and thunderstorms chances Wednesday and Thursday. Marginal severe chances exist both days.
- Dry and cooler conditions will return for the weekend, with a warming trend into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Line of strong to severe thunderstorms are moving through the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon. The environment ahead of these storms is plenty unstable with MLCAPE's upwards of 1500-2000j/kg amid 7+C/Km lapse rates aloft.
Marginal wind shear upwards of 35 kts along with the unstable environment should support continued maintenance of this convection and its eastward movement through the remainder of the afternoon. The main threats are damaging winds and large hail but a tornado still can't be ruled out.
A front draped across the area will continue to support scattered showers and storms on Wednesday. It looks like we should see some clearing during the afternoon hours as this front lifts north and this may result in increasing instability. A lack of forcing may tend to limit the severe threat but there may be enough shear for hail or damaging winds in any stronger updrafts. Better forcing arrives on Thursday as a shortwave moves across Missouri. This will result in additional chances of showers and storms along a front. Again can't completely rule out a stronger storm or two but instability looks lower on Thursday. Coverage of showers and storms decreases late Thursday into early Friday as the system exits the area.
Another shortwave digs southward into the Ohio Valley on Friday with chances of showers and storms. High pressure then settles across the region for the weekend bringing drier weather and cooler temperatures. Some uncertainty exists for the large scale pattern next week but a gradual warming trend is expected into early next week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 550 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Convective coverage and intensity is decreasing this evening.
Some lingering showers and storms persist across the Pennyrile and parts of southwest Indiana but most of the rest of the region just has some lingering very light stratiform precip at worst. Winds should ease overnight and there will be potential for a bit of ground fog although the signal is mostly for MVFR stratus to work into the area as a weak warm front lifts back to the north. A window for a few showers or a thunderstorm or two is possible from 09-13z or so with a better chance in the late afternoon for a few thunderstorms.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 550 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon across southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and parts of western Kentucky.
- On and off showers and thunderstorms chances Wednesday and Thursday. Marginal severe chances exist both days.
- Dry and cooler conditions will return for the weekend, with a warming trend into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Line of strong to severe thunderstorms are moving through the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon. The environment ahead of these storms is plenty unstable with MLCAPE's upwards of 1500-2000j/kg amid 7+C/Km lapse rates aloft.
Marginal wind shear upwards of 35 kts along with the unstable environment should support continued maintenance of this convection and its eastward movement through the remainder of the afternoon. The main threats are damaging winds and large hail but a tornado still can't be ruled out.
A front draped across the area will continue to support scattered showers and storms on Wednesday. It looks like we should see some clearing during the afternoon hours as this front lifts north and this may result in increasing instability. A lack of forcing may tend to limit the severe threat but there may be enough shear for hail or damaging winds in any stronger updrafts. Better forcing arrives on Thursday as a shortwave moves across Missouri. This will result in additional chances of showers and storms along a front. Again can't completely rule out a stronger storm or two but instability looks lower on Thursday. Coverage of showers and storms decreases late Thursday into early Friday as the system exits the area.
Another shortwave digs southward into the Ohio Valley on Friday with chances of showers and storms. High pressure then settles across the region for the weekend bringing drier weather and cooler temperatures. Some uncertainty exists for the large scale pattern next week but a gradual warming trend is expected into early next week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 550 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Convective coverage and intensity is decreasing this evening.
Some lingering showers and storms persist across the Pennyrile and parts of southwest Indiana but most of the rest of the region just has some lingering very light stratiform precip at worst. Winds should ease overnight and there will be potential for a bit of ground fog although the signal is mostly for MVFR stratus to work into the area as a weak warm front lifts back to the north. A window for a few showers or a thunderstorm or two is possible from 09-13z or so with a better chance in the late afternoon for a few thunderstorms.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCIR
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCIR
Wind History Graph: CIR
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley
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