Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheriton, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Less humid and somewhat cooler temperatures today. There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the area on Sunday.

2) A cooler, somewhat unsettled pattern takes hold for early next week. Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of the week.

DISCUSSION
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Less humid and somewhat cooler temperatures today.
There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the area on Sunday.

A cold front has dropped south of the local area and will become stationary near the NC/SC border later today. This front lifts back to the north as a warm front tonight into early Sunday morning as a stronger front approaches from the NW. Mainly dry conditions and mostly sunny skies are expected for a majority of the area today.
There is a chance for scattered showers or thunderstorms later this afternoon into this evening across far southern portions of the area closer to the Albemarle Sound, closer to the boundary. Otherwise, much less humidity today compared to the past few days, with dewpoints generally in the 50s or 60s for a majority of the area (compared to the 70s from previous days). Temperatures will continue to run above average, with highs around 90 or in the lower 90s for most inland areas and mid to upper 80s closer to the coast.

For Sunday, southerly flow returns area-wide as the warm front lifts back to the north. 70+ degree dewpoints and ~2.00" PWATs return to the local area. Meanwhile, a strong cold front approaches from the NW Sunday afternoon, before crossing the area Sunday night. This front, combined with an unstable airmass over the local area, will serve as the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon-evening. Ahead of the front, MLCAPE values will increase to 1500-2500 J/kg. In addition, model soundings continue to show steep low level lapse rates, which should should result in substantial DCAPE (~1500+ J/kg). Finally, compared to previous days, wind shear will be higher averaging 30 to 40 knots. Given all of this, severe storms are likely Sunday afternoon-evening with a SPC placing the area in a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, notably SPC has a majority of the area in a 30% wind outlook. There is at least some potential that this may need to be increased with future outlooks, which would potentially place a majority of the area in an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5). A few discrete storms/supercells may also develop ahead of the main front Sunday afternoon-evening, bringing at least a low-end potential for large hail and even an isolated tornado.
Finally, locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially over the urban area. WPC has placed a small, Day 2 ERO over the Hampton Roads metro area. The progressive nature of the storms and drought conditions should keep the flooding threat limited. The cold front moves through a majority of the area Sunday night bringing cooler/drier air and ending the threat for any severe weather. However, in typical fashion for the summer months, the front likely stalls near the coast allowing for unsettled conditions to continue into early next week.

Temperature-wise, highs climb back into the lower to mid 90s areawide (locally upper 90s). With the increasing humidity, heat index values increase back into the upper 90s to lower 100s. The highest heat indices will likely be east of I-95 and south of I-64 on Sunday. There is the potential that Heat Advisories may be needed for some of this area, with the highest chances across southside Hampton Roads into northeast North Carolina.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cooler, somewhat unsettled pattern takes hold for early next week. Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of the week.

Cooler conditions are expected through at least the first half of next week as an upper trough develops over the eastern half of the US. In addition, the front from Sunday lingers near eastern portions of the area bringing continued chances for showers or thunderstorms into Monday across S/SE portions of the forecast area. Rain chances/cloud cover likely expands a bit further N/NW on Tuesday.
High temperatures Monday will be near to slightly below average, ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south (upper 70s to around 80 Eastern Shore). Temperatures may stay in the 70s for a majority of the area on Tuesday with the increase in cloud cover, precipitation chances, and onshore flow. Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of next week as the trough begins to break down.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 150 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z/13 TAF period. Storms from earlier have dissipated, with only a few remaining widely scattered showers (mainly along the coast). A cold front has dropped south of the area and high pressure will briefly build across the region later today. Dry conditions are expected today, though there is a low chance for a shower or storm this afternoon, mainly S/SW of ECG. Otherwise, expect a mix of high clouds and afternoon cumulus with bases ~4000 to 6000 feet. Winds start out of the N-NNE throughout the first half of the day, turning to the SW this evening. Wind speeds remain under 10 knots throughout the period.

Outlook: Another chance of showers and storms returns Sunday, which could impact flight restrictions. Primarily VFR conditions are expected for Monday, though shower/storm chances may linger across S/SE portions of the area. Becoming more unsettled on Tuesday, with the potential for sub-VFR CIGs , especially at the eastern TAF sites.

MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Sub-Advisory conditions expected through early Sunday, then increasing winds expected Sunday evening with SCAs potentially needed.

A cold front is making its way south through the area early this morning. Winds are starting to turn to the NW over the local waters at ~10kt. Based on observations further up the bay, there will likely be a brief uptick in winds to around 15kt behind the front this morning. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers are around 1ft. High pressure fills in pretty quickly today, resulting in light variable winds and a sea breeze likely developing later in the afternoon. Southerly flow of 5-10kt returns late tonight through early Sunday.

Another cold front approaches the region Sunday, bringing a round of thunderstorms that could contain severe wind gusts. Additionally, SE winds increase to ~15kt over the bay and rivers and 15-20kt over the coastal waters during the afternoon and Sunday. Brief SCAs may be needed Sunday evening for the lower bay. Will hold off on issuing for now since it's on the lower end of criteria and onset is still 36 hours out. Seas increase to 3-4ft, up to 5ft past 20nm. Winds turn to the W behind the front (~15kt) late Sunday night, then to the N Monday morning. At this time, there does not appear to be much of a surge behind the front with winds staying below SCA criteria.
Benign conditions then prevail through mid week. Seas drop back to 2- 3ft by Monday afternoon then down to around 2ft through at least Tuesday. Waves will be around 1ft (2ft in the mouth of the bay).

CLIMATE
A record high temperature was set on Friday, 6/12 at Elizabeth City, NC (99). Record high temperatures were tied at Norfolk (99), Richmond (100), and Salisbury, MD (98). A record high minimum temperature was set at Norfolk (77).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.