Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheriton, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 235 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Warm and breezy this afternoon after a cool start this morning.

Surface analysis shows 1026mb high pressure translating offshore early this morning with low pressure extending from the southern Plains into the upper Midwest. Aloft, an upper ridge is moving into the area as an upper trough digs into the Four Corners region.

Temps have fallen into the 40s to low 50s this morning with southerly winds and some high level clouds moving over the area.
High pressure continues to move offshore today with a decent pressure gradient resulting in breezy SSW winds across the region.
Winds could gust to 20-25 mph this afternoon. Forecast soundings show deep mixing with some moisture at the top of the mixed layer resulting in scattered cumulus clouds this afternoon. High temperatures will top out in near 80 degrees for most of the area with 60s and low 70s expected for the Eastern Shore where onshore flow should keep temps in check. Mild and dry tonight with low temps around 60 degrees.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and around 80 at the coast.

- A backdoor front drops south and west Sunday leading to a wide range of temps across the area.

Bermuda ridge will remain in place on Saturday with continued dry conditions. Temperatures will rise into the 80s with mid and even a a few upper 80s possible away from the coast. It will be breezy again Saturday with SW winds 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus can be expected again on Saturday.
Remaining mild overnight with lows only in the low/mid 60s across the area.

A backdoor cold front lends considerable uncertainty to the Sunday temperature forecast. Regardless of the details, it will be cooler across the NE portions of the area and warmer SW. Just how far SW the front is able to progress remains in question so have stuck close to the blended guidance for this part of the forecast. For now, will show high temps in the low/mid 70s for the Eastern Shore and immediate coast with upper 70s and low 80s inland. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Sunday. A few showers could sneak into the NW Piedmont Sunday afternoon (where moisture will be a little deeper) but confidence is low in seeing any measurable precip so have capped PoPs at less than 15%. A bit cooler Sunday night with lows around 50 for the MD Eastern Shore, mid 50s for the Northern Neck, and upper 50s to around 60 for remainder of the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Warm with chances for afternoon and evening showers/storms returning to the region.

Upper ridging will anchor east of Florida next week, resulting in SW flow aloft across the region. High temperatures Monday in the 80s inland with 70s for coastal locations. Onshore flow will lead to temps in the 60s for Atlantic-facing portions of the Eastern Shore. The next cold front sags SE toward the area late Monday with a few showers possible Monday night across the northern half of the area. Cloudy and mild Monday night with lows generally in the 60s. Chance for showers and isolated storms continues on Tuesday as the front stalls across the region. High temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Remaining mild into the mid week period with continued chances for afternoon/evening showers/storms. Highs in the 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 125 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Some SCT/BKN cirrus is noted on satellite imagery streaming in from the NW. Generally light and variable winds through sunrise become S or SSW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt from mid morning through the afternoon. Forecast soundings shows some moisture at the top of the mixed layer so FEW/SCT CU are possible for all but SBY where moisture is lower. Guidance shows the potential for widespread LLWS across the region just after the 06z forecast period. Have included LLWS at SBY late in the forecast for now.

Outlook: LLWS is possible at all terminals late tonight.
VFR/dry conditions continue through the end of the week.
Remaining mostly dry through the weekend. The next shot at widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase on Friday and continue into Saturday ahead of the next cold front.

Latest analysis reveals broad 1024+mb high pressure in place over the eastern seaboard this afternoon. Winds were light and variable, but averaged NNE ~5-8 kt. Waves 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

Mainly benign conditions across the waters this evening with high pressure overhead, then sliding offshore on Friday. S-SW flow slowly increases Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon in association with tightening pressure gradient ahead of a warm front lifting through the local area, as low pressure lifts across the Great Lakes. Local wind probs continue to indicate high confidence for SCA conditions for the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters during this period with winds ramping up to 15-20 kt Friday afternoon and evening, with gusts to 25 kt (30 kt gusts possible across the northern coastal waters), and a SCA has been issued in these areas. Confidence in seeing sustained SCA conditions is lower for the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound where the pressure gradient will not be as strong, so will continue to cap winds just below SCA thresholds. Confidence has increased enough to add in the James River tomorrow evening into Sat afternoon, but will hold out the remaining rivers for now with confidence of SCA winds there a bit lower. Waves in the bay will build to 2-3 ft along with the winds by late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, with SSE wind wave also allowing seas to increase during this period with 2-4 ft expected south of Cape Charles Light and 4-6 ft to the north.

The cold front will struggle to make inroads toward the local waters late Saturday into Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to return for Sunday into early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ637-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.