Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheriton, VA
May 18, 2024 11:38 PM EDT (03:38 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 2:37 PM Moonset 2:19 AM |
ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 950 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am edt Sunday through Monday evening - .
Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds and ne 3 ft at 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers early this evening.
Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 5 ft at 8 seconds and ne 4 ft at 5 seconds.
Sun night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 5 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Tue - E winds 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 10 seconds.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 950 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system moves across the carolinas this evening, then pushes off the coast tonight into Sunday, before slowly moving offshore Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.
a low pressure system moves across the carolinas this evening, then pushes off the coast tonight into Sunday, before slowly moving offshore Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 190155 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 955 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers shift south of the region late tonight into Sunday.
Light rain or drizzle overnight will give way to a drier day Sunday, albeit with clouds persisting through much of the day.
Dry weather and a clearing sky returns for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Cool and dreary overnight with overcast skies and spotty light rain or drizzle.
Latest analysis indicates a slow-moving frontal boundary draped just south of the local area this evening. To the north, 1024+mb cool high pressure ridging into the Mid- Atlantic from Atlantic Canada. Aloft, SW flow is in place with a positively tilted upper trough/low pressure over the mid-south with numerous weak spokes of shortwave energy overrunning the slow- moving front mainly just to our south. Steadier showers of earlier this evening have tapered to some spotty light rain and drizzle, with more organized showers from Bertie County south into east/SE NC.
Showers gradually diminish overnight over the far southern zones, with spotty light rain or drizzle over southern VA into NE NC. A mainly overcast sky overnight with occasional drizzle and some patchy fog developing. Early morning lows mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Mostly dry Sunday aside from a stray shower or two. High temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into the 70s for northwestern portions of the area.
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for north west portions of the area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn hrs). As such, temps in the NW counties may be up to 10 degrees warmer than locations at the coast. Highs in the W/NW look to reach at least the low 70s, while locations along the coast stay in the mid-60s. If clouds are quicker to clear out, could see temps reach the mid-upper 70s in the west, as some statistical guidance would suggest. Sunday looks more and more dry with latest high-res guidance. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two. Lows Sun night will be in the mid 50s.
High pressure will shift to the S on Monday as low pressure moves farther offshore. Additionally, a ridge builds in aloft. Onshore flow continues, though, which will limit temps closer to the coast to the upper 60s-around 70. Meanwhile, locations along and W of I-95 warm into the upper 70s. Lows Mon night in the low-mid 50s. Warmer still on Tues as the high shifts offshore, skies mostly clear out, and winds shift to the SE. Onshore flow will once again limit temps at the coast, but will be warmer that days previous. Highs at the coast will be in the low 70s. Inland, temps warm to around 80.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Warmer and mostly dry for the mid-week period
- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return Thursday and Friday
The warming trend continues mid-week with southerly flow in place and the upper ridge overhead. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies continues Wed. Highs will be in the mid-80s for most and in upper 70s-low 80s immediately near the coast. Global models indicate that a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs.
This yields chance PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday.
With temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70 anticipated, went ahead and included thunder as well. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time. May be a bit cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another chance for afternoon storms Friday as a disturbance aloft passes through. Near average temperatures Saturday with another chance for scattered storms.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...
Degraded flight conditions continue to begin the 00z TAF period. Latest obs indicate that most terminals are in IFR over central VA IVOF KRIC. Slightly higher MVFR to low-end VFR along the coast at SBY/PHF/ORF likely continue through the evening, then CIGs to drop back into IFR range after midnight. More organized showers have diminished to areas of light rain/drizzle along the coast, with the drizzle and patchy fog to hamper visibility overnight at times. Farther south closer to the quasi-stationary frontal boundary, ECG remains in IFR and will likely bounce between IFR/LIFR CIGs overnight. E winds become NE overnight ~7-10 kt.
Outlook: Conditions improve slowly but steadily through the day Sun with the forecast now looking mainly dry. However, BKN-OVC IFR/MVFR CIGs still look slow to scatter out, leaving a mainly overcast, cool day. CIGs should briefly return to VFR late SUnday, only to degrade back to IFR/MVFR Sunday night. VFR conditions return for Monday.
MARINE
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the marine area later tonight.
Late this aftn, weak low pressure was centered over ern NC while sfc high pressure was centered over New England. Winds were ENE 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-3 ft and seas were 3-4 ft. Low pressure will track east and off the NC coast tonight into Sun, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. Winds will become NE by tonight into Sun ranging from 10-15 kt N to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt S. Seas build to 4-5 ft N to 5-6 ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck Sound. Have added the other two coastal zns up to Chincoteague VA starting at 7 am Sun morning. High pressure builds across the Mid Atlc coast Tue into Wed, as weak low pressure lingers off the SE coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW, but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4 ft by Mon night/Tue, and then 2-3 ft by midweek.
A moderate risk for rip currents continues into this evening, with moderate for the northern beaches Sun and Mon, and high for the southern beaches, due to increasing NE flow and building seas.
HYDROLOGY
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...
Flood Warnings have been cancelled for Nottoway River near Stony Creek.
Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 955 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers shift south of the region late tonight into Sunday.
Light rain or drizzle overnight will give way to a drier day Sunday, albeit with clouds persisting through much of the day.
Dry weather and a clearing sky returns for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Cool and dreary overnight with overcast skies and spotty light rain or drizzle.
Latest analysis indicates a slow-moving frontal boundary draped just south of the local area this evening. To the north, 1024+mb cool high pressure ridging into the Mid- Atlantic from Atlantic Canada. Aloft, SW flow is in place with a positively tilted upper trough/low pressure over the mid-south with numerous weak spokes of shortwave energy overrunning the slow- moving front mainly just to our south. Steadier showers of earlier this evening have tapered to some spotty light rain and drizzle, with more organized showers from Bertie County south into east/SE NC.
Showers gradually diminish overnight over the far southern zones, with spotty light rain or drizzle over southern VA into NE NC. A mainly overcast sky overnight with occasional drizzle and some patchy fog developing. Early morning lows mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Mostly dry Sunday aside from a stray shower or two. High temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into the 70s for northwestern portions of the area.
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for north west portions of the area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn hrs). As such, temps in the NW counties may be up to 10 degrees warmer than locations at the coast. Highs in the W/NW look to reach at least the low 70s, while locations along the coast stay in the mid-60s. If clouds are quicker to clear out, could see temps reach the mid-upper 70s in the west, as some statistical guidance would suggest. Sunday looks more and more dry with latest high-res guidance. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two. Lows Sun night will be in the mid 50s.
High pressure will shift to the S on Monday as low pressure moves farther offshore. Additionally, a ridge builds in aloft. Onshore flow continues, though, which will limit temps closer to the coast to the upper 60s-around 70. Meanwhile, locations along and W of I-95 warm into the upper 70s. Lows Mon night in the low-mid 50s. Warmer still on Tues as the high shifts offshore, skies mostly clear out, and winds shift to the SE. Onshore flow will once again limit temps at the coast, but will be warmer that days previous. Highs at the coast will be in the low 70s. Inland, temps warm to around 80.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Warmer and mostly dry for the mid-week period
- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return Thursday and Friday
The warming trend continues mid-week with southerly flow in place and the upper ridge overhead. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies continues Wed. Highs will be in the mid-80s for most and in upper 70s-low 80s immediately near the coast. Global models indicate that a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs.
This yields chance PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday.
With temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70 anticipated, went ahead and included thunder as well. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time. May be a bit cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another chance for afternoon storms Friday as a disturbance aloft passes through. Near average temperatures Saturday with another chance for scattered storms.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...
Degraded flight conditions continue to begin the 00z TAF period. Latest obs indicate that most terminals are in IFR over central VA IVOF KRIC. Slightly higher MVFR to low-end VFR along the coast at SBY/PHF/ORF likely continue through the evening, then CIGs to drop back into IFR range after midnight. More organized showers have diminished to areas of light rain/drizzle along the coast, with the drizzle and patchy fog to hamper visibility overnight at times. Farther south closer to the quasi-stationary frontal boundary, ECG remains in IFR and will likely bounce between IFR/LIFR CIGs overnight. E winds become NE overnight ~7-10 kt.
Outlook: Conditions improve slowly but steadily through the day Sun with the forecast now looking mainly dry. However, BKN-OVC IFR/MVFR CIGs still look slow to scatter out, leaving a mainly overcast, cool day. CIGs should briefly return to VFR late SUnday, only to degrade back to IFR/MVFR Sunday night. VFR conditions return for Monday.
MARINE
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the marine area later tonight.
Late this aftn, weak low pressure was centered over ern NC while sfc high pressure was centered over New England. Winds were ENE 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-3 ft and seas were 3-4 ft. Low pressure will track east and off the NC coast tonight into Sun, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. Winds will become NE by tonight into Sun ranging from 10-15 kt N to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt S. Seas build to 4-5 ft N to 5-6 ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck Sound. Have added the other two coastal zns up to Chincoteague VA starting at 7 am Sun morning. High pressure builds across the Mid Atlc coast Tue into Wed, as weak low pressure lingers off the SE coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW, but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4 ft by Mon night/Tue, and then 2-3 ft by midweek.
A moderate risk for rip currents continues into this evening, with moderate for the northern beaches Sun and Mon, and high for the southern beaches, due to increasing NE flow and building seas.
HYDROLOGY
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...
Flood Warnings have been cancelled for Nottoway River near Stony Creek.
Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Ship Shoal Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:19 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:09 AM EDT 3.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:25 AM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:52 PM EDT 4.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:53 PM EDT 0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:19 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:09 AM EDT 3.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:25 AM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:52 PM EDT 4.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:53 PM EDT 0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ship Shoal Inlet, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.7 |
| 2 am |
| 2.4 |
| 3 am |
| 3 |
| 4 am |
| 3.4 |
| 5 am |
| 3.6 |
| 6 am |
| 3.5 |
| 7 am |
| 3 |
| 8 am |
| 2.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 4 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:00 AM EDT -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:14 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:20 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT 0.42 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:09 PM EDT -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:33 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:17 PM EDT 0.71 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:23 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:00 AM EDT -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:14 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:20 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT 0.42 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:09 PM EDT -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:33 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:17 PM EDT 0.71 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:23 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.8 |
| 1 am |
| -0.7 |
| 2 am |
| -0.4 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0 |
| 9 am |
| -0.3 |
| 10 am |
| -0.7 |
| 11 am |
| -0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| -1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.6 |
Wakefield, VA,
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