Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for York, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) An unsettled pattern prevails through midweek. Expect near average temperatures, with very humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and storms.

2) A more typical summertime pattern returns for the latter half of the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible, with near to slightly above normal temperatures prevailing through next weekend.

DISCUSSION
As of 310 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled pattern prevails through midweek.
Expect near average temperatures, with very humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and storms.

A low pressure system is currently sliding across the eastern Great Lakes region, with an associated cold front draped across the Appalachians through the Gulf Coast. Most shower and thunderstorm activity has dwindled across the area, though some light showers still remain. Mesoanalysis places widespread 2"+ PW values across the entire coast as deep Gulf moisture continues to funnel northward. Dew points are in the lower to mid 70s and temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s, making for quite a muggy morning.

A shortwave associated with an upper trough will lift across the area today, leading to additional convective development today.
Guidance has trended down some on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, and depict the highest PoPs and QPF across the SE portion of the area. The trough weakens further Tuesday and Wednesday, but scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms capable of heavy rainfall remain expected as deep moisture lingers despite weakening SW flow aloft. The main catalyst for convection will be where the front associated with the slow-moving low across the NE ends up each day, which will ultimately dictate the coverage and location of any convective development. The front looks like it may drift across our area on Tuesday, which could bring more shower and thunderstorm coverage than previously thought, but will continue to monitor any trends in the upcoming forecast cycles.

Given the environment, and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day. However, the severe threat should stay low due to poor mid-level lapse rates, a near-saturated vertical column, and weak shear. Days 1-3 (Monday through Wednesday) are in a Marginal ERO as the overall flash flood risk is more isolated in nature. High temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of showers/tstms, though any breaks in the cloud cover may allow temperatures to briefly overperform.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more typical summertime pattern returns for the latter half of the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible, with near to slightly above normal temperatures prevailing through next weekend.

Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased convective coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s, making for quite humid conditions. Heat indices will approach 100 degrees for a good portion of the area Thursday through Saturday, but due to temperatures remaining near normal, heat headlines are not expected at this time, though the dew points will cause it to feel quite uncomfortable.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 640 AM EDT Monday...

There is a mixed bag of flight conditions being observed across the terminals, with isolated showers and lower intermittent CIGs this morning. TAFs this morning proved to be tricky with the CIGs bouncing back and fourth between MVFR and VFR, but have kept MVFR CIGs as obs around the area suggest that the low CIGs will become more prevalent over the next hour or so in the wake of the rain.
Shower/storm chances will be highest closer to the coast today , but scattered aftn SHRA/TSRA are possible for all terminals (for now this has mostly been handled with PROB30 groups). S-SW winds average 10-15 kt w/ gusts to 20 kt during the day today. Winds will drop overnight, becoming light and variable. Anywhere that receives rain this afternoon may see reduced VIS and low CIGs tonight into tomorrow morning, but confidence was too low to include for now.

Outlook: Elevated shower/tstm chances continue through mid- week, with periodic flight restrictions lingering, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. More typical summer time pattern for the latter half of the week, with a somewhat lower coverage of late afternoon and evening scattered SHRA/TSRA Thu-Fri.

MARINE
As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all but the upper rivers this morning.

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail from tonight through late week outside of local thunderstorm influences.

Low pressure is centered near Lake Ontario with a cold front extending to the south into the higher Appalachian terrain while surface high pressure remains anchored well offshore. SSW winds average 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay/lower James River and Currituck Sound. Offshore, SW winds are 15-25 kt with seas 4-6 ft near the coast and 6-8 ft in the 20-60nm zones. No changes have been made to the ongoing SCA headlines with the bay/river/sound SCAs still set to expire at 10AM as winds decrease back into the 10-15 kt range. Seas will be slower to subside from S to N this afternoon into the evening. Continued southerly flow and generally quiet marine conditions are then expected from tonight through late week as high pressure lingers offshore. Showers and storms will remain in the forecast each day but with little to no confidence in specific timing or coverage. Widespread organized convection is not expected, though locally degraded marine conditions are likely to accompany the stronger storms through the week.

There is a High Rip current risk at the northern beaches today with a Moderate Rip risk for the southern beaches. There will also likely be moderate to strong longshore current at all beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-639.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658.