Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
York, VA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:49PM Thursday August 22, 2019 1:47 PM EDT (17:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:47PMMoonset 11:53AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 104 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 104 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front approaches from the west late Thursday night and crosses the area late Friday into early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near York, VA
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location: 37.23, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221743
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
143 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure will persist across the area today. A
cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday night, then
slowly drops into the area Friday, before stalling along the
virginia-north carolina border Friday night into early Saturday.

The front then pushes into the carolinas later Saturday into
Sunday as high pressure builds north of the region.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 am edt Thursday...

scattered showers over NE nc continue to diminish this morning,
kept low chance pops in for another hour or so. Short term
guidance continues to hold the convection off for most of the
day with pops starting to increase after 20z. Will be plenty of
sunshine across the area, with high temps in the low to mid 90s.

Spc has outlined the area in a marginal risk for severe weather
today, with damaging winds being the primary threat. Don't
expect a widespread event with a decent cap in place for most of
the day, but dcape values will be around 1000 j kg so some
isolated damaging wind gusts are certainly possible in a few
storms.

Previous discussion.

A subtle shortwave trough is pushing off the mid- atlantic
coast early this morning. Showers tstms accompanied this feature
over the md ERN shore, but this activity has now weakened and
moved offshore. An isolated shower is possible over NE nc
through sunrise. Otherwise, no showers are expected through the
remainder of the morning. Warm and humid early this morning with
temperatures in the mid upper 70s and dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s.

A surface trough will remain over the region today. However,
the airmass is expected to remain capped much of the day, so
showers tstms are not expected to arrive in the piedmont until
mid- late aftn where pops are 30-50%, with 15-30% elsewhere.

Strong surface heating will allow temperatures to rise into the
low mid 90s and dewpoints are expected to remain in the 70-75f
range. This will result in heat indices of 98-103f.

A cold front will slowly approach from the NW tonight. A
shortwave trough will move through the region in wsw flow aloft,
and this should allow sct showers tstms to linger into the
evening and early overnight hours. Pops are highest n, 30-50%,
with 20-30% across the s. As similar to the past few days, any
tstms are likely to contain frequent lightning, with the
strongest updrafts capable of collapsing and causing isolated
wind damage. Warm and humid again tonight with lows in the
low mid 70s.

Short term Friday through Saturday
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

the cold front will continue its slow approach from the nw
Friday morning, and then settle into SRN va by Friday aftn.

Current guidance does depict decent surface heating over se
va NE nc, with the front arriving in the aftn. Hence there is
the potential for some strong to marginally severe tstms Friday
aftn across SE va and NE nc. The front then stalls in vicinity
of the va nc border Friday night into early Saturday. The threat
will shift to heavy rain at this point. Showers and embedded
tstms are expected to persist along the boundary, and rainfall
should be rather efficient with a deep warm cloud layer, and
moisture will be plentiful with pw values AOA 2.0". It is still
too early to depict exactly where the heaviest rain will occur,
but there is increasing confidence in locally excessive rainfall
along the boundary, and SE va NE nc are in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall. The latest guidance has the front pushing
into nc Saturday aftn as high pressure builds to the n. Dry
conditions are expected across the n, with 30-50% pops lingering
over far SE va and NE nc.

Highs Friday range from the upper 70s low 80s n, to the
mid upper 80s se. Lows Friday night range from the low mid 60s
n, to the low 70s se, followed by highs Saturday in the upper
70s.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
As of 4 pm edt Wednesday...

cold front will be south of the area Saturday night, however
some showers may linger behind the front (mainly along and south
of the nc state line). High pressure will build in from the n
behind the front bring cooler air to the area. Temperatures
Sunday morning will be in the upper 50s in the va piedmont and
low to mid 60s along and east of i-95. High temperatures will
only manage to reach the low 80s inland and upper 70s along the
coast with the ene flow. Pops will remain in for Sunday (20-30%)
for showers moving onshore from the atlantic ocean.

Models are indicating a low (possibly tropical) forming off the
outer banks early next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a weak
sfc low pressure system moving NE out into the atlantic. Pops
were kept in with the highest towards the coast through
Wednesday as the low passes by. Temperatures will remain on the
mild side as the ene-ne flow continues. Highs will be in the low
to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s inland to low 70s at the
coast.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 100 pm edt Thursday...

vfr conditions early this afternoon. Winds 5-10 kt out of the sw.

Sct CU beginning to build across the piedmont with development
across the rest of the area over the next few hours. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms this evening with brief MVFR ifr
conditions possible in any showers or storms. Precipitation chances
decrease after midnight.

Cold front approaches the area and begins to cross from the NW on
Friday and will slow considerably as it approaches the va nc line
Friday afternoon and evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected along the front Friday night into early Saturday, which
will likely result in periods of poor flying conditions.

Marine
As of 330 am edt Thursday...

all small craft advisories will expire as scheduled at 4 am
edt. While a few elevated sites may occasionally gust to 20 to
25 knots early this morning, winds seas have largely diminished
below SCA criteria and are expected to continue to decrease
through this morning.

S to SW winds are expected to range from 5 to 15 knots over the
waters this morning through this afternoon. Seas will average
around 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet out 20 nm) and waves in the bay
around 1 to 2 feet. A cold front and associated area of low
pressure slowly approach from the NW through today, as a result,
a slight uptick in winds is once again expected later this
evening into the overnight hours. Winds may briefly reach sca
criteria, especially over the bay, from around 00z to 06z. Would
not be shocked to see a few wind gusts to 20 knots at the
typical elevated sites during this time frame, but held off on
any additional advisories due to the marginal and short-lived
nature of this event.

The aforementioned cold front slowly drops south over the
waters Friday through early Saturday. Behind the front, winds
shift to the N and ne. Expect an uptick in NE winds by late
Saturday through Sunday as onshore flow takes hold. As a result
of the onshore flow, seas will also be on the increase during
this period, potentially building to as high as 5 feet (6 feet
out 20 nm). Scas may very well be needed for the second half of
the weekend due to a combination of elevated winds and seas.

Easterly flow likely continues into early next week which will
allow for seas to remain elevated.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Ajz cmf
short term... Ajz rhr
long term... Cp
aviation... Cmf
marine... Ajb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 1 mi48 min Calm G 1.9 88°F 78°F1014.5 hPa (-0.8)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 8 mi48 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 84°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.6)
44072 13 mi28 min N 1.9 G 3.9 83°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 15 mi24 min 88°F 87°F1015.3 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 17 mi78 min SSE 1 88°F 1016 hPa75°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 19 mi54 min SW 7 G 7 85°F 1015.2 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi54 min WSW 5.1 G 7 83°F 1014.4 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 22 mi54 min 81°F1015 hPa
44087 23 mi48 min 82°F1 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 25 mi48 min S 5.1 G 7 89°F 1014.8 hPa (-1.2)
CHBV2 26 mi54 min W 6 G 7 83°F 1014.1 hPa
44064 27 mi58 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 82°F 1014.5 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi54 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 82°F
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 33 mi48 min SSW 7 G 9.9 89°F 81°F1014.7 hPa (-1.0)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi48 min 1015.8 hPa (-0.5)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 34 mi48 min ENE 6 G 8.9 83°F 1015 hPa (-0.9)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 47 mi48 min 76°F2 ft

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi54 minSSW 510.00 miFair88°F73°F63%1014.9 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA9 mi52 minWNW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F77°F70%1015.2 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA11 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair90°F77°F67%1015.2 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA13 mi1.9 hrsWSW 89.00 miA Few Clouds86°F75°F71%1016.2 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi1.8 hrsSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F75°F68%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHF

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S10--SW7SW11SW9SW6SW7SW7--S5----SW12W8--SW8----SW7SW9W7SW6SW5
1 day agoW6SW6SW7----SW11SW9SE5------------S5--SW10SW8------SW12
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2 days agoSW8S8--SW5S9S7S5S7SW9----------SW8SW4--SW7W6W4--S5SW6W5

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:04 AM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:06 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:33 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.22.42.21.91.510.70.50.60.91.41.92.42.62.62.421.61.10.90.70.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for SW Branch, Severn River, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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SW Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:51 AM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:06 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:20 PM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.42.42.31.91.510.70.50.611.52.12.52.72.72.421.61.10.90.70.91.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.