Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
York, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:27PM Thursday October 17, 2019 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:01PMMoonset 9:42AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 1252 Pm Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
This afternoon..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late in the morning, then becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..NE winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 1252 Pm Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Strong low pressure moves northeast across new england this afternoon, bringing strong west to northwest winds to the local area. High pressure slowly builds into the region late Friday through Saturday. Low pressure moves in from the southwest on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yorktown CDP, VA
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location: 37.23, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 171409
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1009 am edt Thu oct 17 2019

Synopsis
Strong low pressure over new england will produce gusty west or
northwest winds across the area today. High pressure builds
into and over the region for tonight into Saturday resulting in
cool and dry weather. A disturbance in the gulf may bring
showers to the area late in the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 am edt Thursday...

strong low pressure over new england and high pressure building
in from the west resulting in a tight pressure gradient across
the area. W NW winds will gust to 30-40 mph near the coast in
md and va and 15-30 mph inland piedmont this aftn into early
this evening. Some gusts up to 45 mph will be possible over the
lwr md ERN shore and into accomack co va) where a wind advisory
is in effect until 8 pm this evening. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny this aftn with high temps in the lower to mid 60s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

the pressure gradient will relax tonight into Friday morning,
and winds should subside to 5-10mph by 12z Friday. High pressure
centered over the ohio valley will remain in control for Friday
and Saturday. Temps will remain cool with high temps in the
60s, and low temps ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s along
the coast. A few locations across the western portions of the
area may drop into the mid 30s Saturday morning. Winds will be
nearly calm and with clear skies expected, would not be
surprised to see some reports of frost Saturday morning.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

our next chance for rain will likely come from a disturbance
currently in the western gulf. Models are in better agreement
that this system will ride up the southeast coast this weekend
and will be in our vicinity beginning late Saturday night into
Sunday morning and likely bring showers to our forecast area
during the day on Sunday. Both the latest runs of the GFS and
ecmwf have precip exiting the area by late Sunday and keeping
Monday dry. Lowered pops for Monday but did not completely
remove them as confidence that far out is still on the lower
side. Trended cooler with the temps on Sunday, as rainfall and
cloud cover should hold MAX temps into the 60s. Assuming precip
does exit the region by Sunday night, temps rebound to the low
to mid 70s on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold
front will cross the region on Tuesday bringing another round
of showers and then cooler and drier conditions for Wednesday.

Low temps on Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s and
high temps on Wednesday will struggle to reach 70.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
As of 630 am edt Thursday...

vfr conditions through the TAF period. Gusty W NW winds through
the period due to a tightening pressure gradient from a
strengthening low in the northeast and high pressure to the
west. Wind gusts will be 20-25kts throughout the day with gusts
to around 35kts at ksby. Winds will decrease to 10-15kts late
Thursday night into Friday morning as the pressure gradient
relaxes.

Vfr conditions through at least Saturday. A storm system
currently in the western gulf is forecast to make it's way up
the southeast coast this weekend... Bringing the threat of
showers to our area for Sunday.

Marine
As of 430 am edt Thursday...

strong W winds prevail across the waters as intense sfc low
pressure (~975mb) is moving NE along the new england coast while
sfc high pressure is building into the lower ms valley. Decided
to extend the gale warning in the northern bay through this
evening even though conditions have dropped a little below gale
thresholds for the moment. High res models suggest some deeper
mixing may bring a return of slightly higher winds this
aftn early evening as wind slowly veer from the W to the nw.

Gales remain in effect into early Fri am for the coastal water
n of CAPE charles light. SCA is in place elsewhere for winds
mainly 20-25kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft with
bay waves 3-5 ft. The current forecast has winds remaining aoa
sca thresholds for bay and coast through ~12-15z fri. Sub-sca
conditions return by late fri, as high pressure settles over the
waters. Latest gfs ECMWF models have trended into better
agreement with the approach of another low pressure system from
the ssw Sat night, pushing off the mid-atlantic coast on Sunday.

Did not go as high with waves seas winds as some of the model
guidance but did increase winds to 15-20 kt over much of the
area with seas building to 5-6 ft Sunday and waves to 3-4 ft at
the mouth of the bay. And late this weekend before exiting to
the NE early next week. Thus, another round of scas (starting by
Sunday) looks likely now for at least the coastal waters and
lower bay.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 430 am edt Thursday...

water levels at bishop's head and cambridge, md crested right
at major flood thresholds yesterday and have rapidly dropped off
given the strong W flow and ebb tide dominance that will
continue today tonight. No additional coastal flooding with
subsequent high tide cycles through sat. While the water levels
have dropped, they are not expected to get down so far that any
low water advisories would be needed.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Wind advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mdz021>025.

Nc... None.

Va... Wind advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz099.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Friday for anz631>638-656-
658.

Gale warning until 10 pm edt this evening for anz630.

Gale warning until 1 am edt Friday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Cmf
near term... Cmf tmg
short term... Cmf
long term... Cmf
aviation... Cmf
marine... Eri lkb
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 1 mi45 min W 16 G 24 58°F 69°F1006.6 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 8 mi45 min WNW 24 G 30 58°F 1006.7 hPa
44072 13 mi33 min N 21 G 27 58°F 67°F2 ft
44041 - Jamestown, VA 15 mi27 min 58°F 67°F1007.7 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 17 mi63 min WSW 5.1 55°F 1008 hPa40°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 19 mi51 min WNW 21 G 25 59°F 1007.3 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi51 min W 24 G 30 58°F 1006.6 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 22 mi51 min 68°F1007.3 hPa
44087 23 mi33 min 68°F3 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 25 mi45 min W 15 G 19 60°F 1007.4 hPa
CHBV2 26 mi51 min WNW 24 G 31 1005.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 27 mi57 min W 18 G 21 58°F 67°F1009.4 hPa
44064 27 mi33 min W 21 G 27 59°F 68°F3 ft1006.6 hPa (+0.0)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi51 min WNW 24 G 30 65°F
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 33 mi45 min WNW 9.9 G 20 60°F 70°F1007.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi45 min W 25 G 31 1006.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 34 mi45 min W 16 G 22 59°F 1007 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 47 mi33 min 68°F5 ft

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi39 minW 18 G 2310.00 miFair and Breezy60°F36°F41%1007.3 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA9 mi97 minW 10 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F38°F45%1007.4 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA11 mi38 minWNW 15 G 2410.00 miFair59°F39°F48%1007.8 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA13 mi97 minWNW 15 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F40°F49%1008.1 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi94 minW 13 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F39°F49%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHF

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE9E11E9E9E7E4E4E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE3E4E4SE5SE7S6SE5S9S12
G19
2 days agoNW6W7CalmNW5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW3CalmCalmN3NE3N4N4NE5NE11
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G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:06 PM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:32 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.41.91.40.90.50.50.71.21.82.42.832.92.521.40.90.60.60.81.31.82.2

Tide / Current Tables for Penniman Spit, York River, Virginia
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Penniman Spit
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:18 AM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:36 PM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:10 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.62.31.81.20.70.50.50.91.52.22.73.13.12.92.41.81.20.80.60.711.52.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.