Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Roanoke, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Unseasonably warm temperatures starting this weekend

2) Breezy conditions on Saturday

Winds will pick up on Saturday as a tighten pressure gradient forms above the Mid-Atlantic and a low level jet passes over. Wind gusts are forecast to be between 15-25 mph and may be higher in elevated locations. These winds will be from the southwest and transport warm and moist air to the region. Temperatures will get unseasonably warm with the warmest temperatures in the mid-80s in the Piedmont of NC and Southside VA. These temperatures are about 15-20 degrees warmer than normal. A 500mb ridge off the Carolina coast will continue to prevent any precipitation development for the Mid-Atlantic. High level clouds, however, are expected to move in to bring partly to mostly cloudy skies for the forecast period. Winds are expected to be calmer by Sunday morning as the pressure gradient weakens.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

1) Unseasonably warm through Monday.

2) Next rain chance are Monday night with the passage of a cold front.

Upper level ridging centered off the northern coast of Florida will remain in place over the southeast through the end of the weekend and into the early portion of the work week. 500mb heights in the 585 to 590 dm range, and 850mb temperatures in the 15-18 degree Celsius range will continue to lead to well above average temperatures for Sunday and Monday before an upper level trough lifts up and over the ridge across the upper Mississippi valley and Great Lakes region Monday evening and night. High temperatures look to remain in the low 80s east of the Blue Ridge and upper 70s west of the Blue Ridge Sunday and Monday. As the aforementioned upper level trough lifts over the ridge, a cold front looks to approach the region late Monday night across the area; however, the best forcing for ascent is expected to lift well north of the region into southeast Canada. This is expected to lead to diminishing shower and thunderstorm activity along the cold front as it passes through the area. Given this decrease in forcing for ascent, PoPs have been reduced slightly by 5% for much of the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key message:

1) Warm temperatures continue

As the aforementioned cold front passes through the region late Monday and into Tuesday, it is expected to become more east/west orientated across the Carolinas and northern Georgia and Alabama through Tuesday evening. This may bring some showers and thunderstorms to our NC counties on Tuesday; however, the remainder of the area across Virginia and West Virginia are expected to stay dry. Temperatures although cooler compared to earlier in the week, will likely still remain 5-10 degrees above average, with temperatures in the low 80s to upper 70s east of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 70s west of the Blue Ridge.

The area looks to see rain chances potentially returning late in the week on Thursday and Friday as embedded shortwaves in the primarily zonal flow across the southern Conus progress east. There is some uncertainty in the evolution of these shortwaves as they are likely developing from convective systems across the central plains earlier in the week. Overall, rain chances are expected to remain low through the end of the period at around 40% or less for the time being until confidence in the forecast increases. Temperatures look to remain above average during this time through the end of the week, with upper 70s to low 80s forecast through the end of the work week.



AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected in the next 24 hour period. High level clouds are forecast to move in by sunrise, Saturday morning, and winds are expected to pick up for all terminals. Wind gusts are expected to be between 20-25 kts at their peak. A low level jet may graze the area to influence these wind gusts. While model guidance suggests wind shear overnight for most terminals, BUFKIT soundings reveal a very stable layer towards the surface and not nearly enough mixing for the wind shear to reach towards the ground.

Confidence in this forecast is average.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

A mostly dry cold front moves into the northern half of the area late Sunday, with a slight chance of rain for LWB/BLF.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue until a the cold front finally moves into the area late Monday, bringing rain chances back into the area with likely sub-VFR conditions for all terminals through Tuesday.

CLIMATE
As of 225PM EDT Friday...

Maximum temperatures on Saturday will be close to record values at some of the local climate sites. Below are the current record highs for April 19th.

Bluefield, WV....85 in 1976 Forecast: 80 Danville, VA.....94 in 1976 Forecast: 86 Lynchburg, VA....92 in 1941 Forecast: 86 Roanoke, VA......91 in 1995 Forecast: 90 Blacksburg, VA...86 in 1976 Forecast: 85

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.