Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grundy, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 200 PM Thursday...

Filtered insolation through thinning high clouds continues to allow cumulus/towering cumulus to blossom for the southwestern half of the forecast area. Expect these clouds to continue to deepen with additional heading with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms heading into this evening. Tonight, a modest uptick in H850 flow may continue to support elevated shower/thunderstorms heading into Friday morning. While rainfall rates out of this activity is not expected to be very robust, they will be rather slow moving and couldn't rule out some very isolated minor water issues.

Whatever remaining isolated elevated activity remains near daybreak should dissipate into late morning with renewed surface based isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms popping up again by afternoon. Coverage should then increase late Friday afternoon with forcing ahead of a prefrontal trough, and then eventual cold frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Given only a modest uptick in flow aloft, not expecting severe weather from any of this activity.

Basin average rainfall amounts should be on the lighter side for the entire event, perhaps 3/4 to 1.5 inches, but given the aforementionedslow storm motions, some isolated, mainly minor high water issues are possible, especially across our far south where some measurable rainfall has occurred over the last 3 days and the green-up is not quite as far along as it is over much of the lowlands.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 1200 PM Thursday...

With frontal boundary north of the area, southwest flow will bring warm and moist airmass into our area, allowing for slow-moving diurnal heat related convection Friday afternoon and evening.
PWATs about 1.4 inches (+2SD from climatology) are indicative of abundant moisture. The passage of an H500 trough may provide enough forcing to produce widespread precipitation into Friday night. WPC maintains most of the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Precipitation should diminish in coverage and intensity overnight Friday. However, a cold front arrives early Saturday morning to bring additional precipitation.

Precipitation will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast as high pressure builds in behind the front Saturday afternoon and evening. Drier conditions are then expected for Saturday night.

For Friday, abundant cloudiness and cooling showers will allow high temperatures to reach the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains. Cooler temperatures, closer to normal values, are expected for Saturday behind the cold front, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 60s across the lowlands, and raging into the upper 50s northeast mountains.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1200 PM Thursday...

Strong high pressure builds from the northwest on Sunday, to provide dry weather conditions through Monday. Although near normal temperatures are expected Sunday, plenty of sunshine and weak flow will allow for a warm up Monday.

Guidance is struggling with the arrival of the next cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Accepted general guidance with chance PoPs for now. Winds will become strong and gusty as the front approaches the area on Tuesday.

Temperatures by mid week will highly depend of the passing systems as they provide cloudiness and cooling showers affecting highs and lows.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM Thursday...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, primarily for BKW/CRW/HTS. Have covered with mainly VCTS for now given limited coverage, but storms will be quite slow moving and if one gets over a terminal it may be 30-60 minutes before the approach path is sufficiently clear of convection. Activity should wane some overnight, but increasingly low level flow should continue to support at least some isolated showers heading into Friday morning. Conditions are largely expected to remain VFR outside of any heavier downpours through Friday morning.

With daytime heating, will see renewed scattered convection by/shortly after the end of this TAF period.

Winds generally light, favoring a southerly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and isolated storms may yield restrictions this afternoon and evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms through Saturday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.