Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grundy, VA
December 10, 2023 2:58 PM EST (19:58 UTC)
Sunrise 7:28AM Sunset 5:14PM Moonrise 5:06AM Moonset 3:19PM
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 101933 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 233 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Strong cold front exits to the east, though a wave moves along it today. Upslope flow tonight into Monday. High pressure Monday night/Tuesday. Dry cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 PM Sunday...
Light to moderate rain continues primarily to the east of the Ohio River as a wave lifts up along a frontal boundary to the east.
Additional moisture is expected to feed into the area as a shortwave trough shifts east overhead late today through tonight. Precipitation chances will erode from the lowlands overnight, with drier conditions expected for Monday as high pressure begins to build in from the southwest. Meanwhile, moisture and upslope flow should allow precipitation to linger into Monday afternoon along the mountains.
Rain will transition to snow as temperatures turn colder this evening into tonight. Once this transition occurs, snow remains the dominant precipitation type until precipitation comes to an end on Monday. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected along the mountains, with 4-7 inches possible for the higher elevations (>3000 ft.). Accumulations trail off further to the west, though flurries or a light dusting could spill over into the lowlands.
Reduced visibility is likely within snow showers. Snow could also initially melt and then freeze, potentially creating slick spots on roadways. No significant changes have been made to the already issued Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory. Both products remain in effect from 7PM today into Monday afternoon.
A tightening pressure gradient is expected to develop as the shortwave approaches from the west. This, and a strong jet moving overhead, should support gusty winds overnight into early Monday. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible for the higher ridges.
Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the 20s to low 30s across the area overnight. Monday remains chilly, with highs projected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s in the lowlands, and 20s to mid 30s along the mountains.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 120 PM Sunday...
Low level warm air advection Monday night will cause clouds to erode as a high pressure system builds into the area. This high will provide dry weather for Tuesday with moderating temperatures.
A moisture starved cold front will then push into the area from the northwest Tuesday night. Models show that moisture in insufficient for precipitation.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1115 AM Sunday...
A dry cold front will push through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models still differ on how much cold air will push into the region behind the cold front on Wednesday. GFS remains the warmest while the Canadian is the coldest. The NAM and ECMWF are in between. Will hedge temperatures downward some in the Wednesday through Thursday time frame.
Models do agree that a high pressure system will build over the area for Thursday and Friday.
Models still struggling on whether the northern and southern stream systems will interact with each other or not for the next weekend. ECMWF and Canadian keep the systems separate, which leads to a dry weekend here. The GFS however still phases the systems which creates a strong system that brings precipitation to the area, and then pulls very cold air into the region for the beginning of the next work week. Obviously, confidence is very low in the forecast for next weekend.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 110 PM Sunday...
Rain is slowly sliding east in the wake of a front this afternoon. Precipitation should persist along and near the mountains into early Monday, with rain transitioning to snow tonight. Some additional light precipitation could also occur for the lowlands sites as a shortwave arrives later today.
A substantial deck of clouds associated with the front and approaching wave should allow MVFR or worse ceilings to continue for most of the period, though brief improvements to VFR could be possible this afternoon. MVFR/IFR visibilities are also expected within rain and snow showers. Conditions could begin to improve to the west very late in the TAF period as high pressure begins building into the area.
5-10kt northwest flow is expected for the rest of today. Flow remains westerly to northwesterly for the rest of the period, though 15-20 kt gusts will be possible overnight into Monday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief improvement to VFR possible this afternoon. Timing of transition from rain to snow may vary. End timing of precipitation may also vary. Gusty winds late today and tonight will fluctuate.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EST 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H M M H H H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in snow showers along the mountains Monday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ039-040-516-518>521-525.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 233 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Strong cold front exits to the east, though a wave moves along it today. Upslope flow tonight into Monday. High pressure Monday night/Tuesday. Dry cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 PM Sunday...
Light to moderate rain continues primarily to the east of the Ohio River as a wave lifts up along a frontal boundary to the east.
Additional moisture is expected to feed into the area as a shortwave trough shifts east overhead late today through tonight. Precipitation chances will erode from the lowlands overnight, with drier conditions expected for Monday as high pressure begins to build in from the southwest. Meanwhile, moisture and upslope flow should allow precipitation to linger into Monday afternoon along the mountains.
Rain will transition to snow as temperatures turn colder this evening into tonight. Once this transition occurs, snow remains the dominant precipitation type until precipitation comes to an end on Monday. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected along the mountains, with 4-7 inches possible for the higher elevations (>3000 ft.). Accumulations trail off further to the west, though flurries or a light dusting could spill over into the lowlands.
Reduced visibility is likely within snow showers. Snow could also initially melt and then freeze, potentially creating slick spots on roadways. No significant changes have been made to the already issued Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory. Both products remain in effect from 7PM today into Monday afternoon.
A tightening pressure gradient is expected to develop as the shortwave approaches from the west. This, and a strong jet moving overhead, should support gusty winds overnight into early Monday. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible for the higher ridges.
Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the 20s to low 30s across the area overnight. Monday remains chilly, with highs projected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s in the lowlands, and 20s to mid 30s along the mountains.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 120 PM Sunday...
Low level warm air advection Monday night will cause clouds to erode as a high pressure system builds into the area. This high will provide dry weather for Tuesday with moderating temperatures.
A moisture starved cold front will then push into the area from the northwest Tuesday night. Models show that moisture in insufficient for precipitation.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1115 AM Sunday...
A dry cold front will push through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models still differ on how much cold air will push into the region behind the cold front on Wednesday. GFS remains the warmest while the Canadian is the coldest. The NAM and ECMWF are in between. Will hedge temperatures downward some in the Wednesday through Thursday time frame.
Models do agree that a high pressure system will build over the area for Thursday and Friday.
Models still struggling on whether the northern and southern stream systems will interact with each other or not for the next weekend. ECMWF and Canadian keep the systems separate, which leads to a dry weekend here. The GFS however still phases the systems which creates a strong system that brings precipitation to the area, and then pulls very cold air into the region for the beginning of the next work week. Obviously, confidence is very low in the forecast for next weekend.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 110 PM Sunday...
Rain is slowly sliding east in the wake of a front this afternoon. Precipitation should persist along and near the mountains into early Monday, with rain transitioning to snow tonight. Some additional light precipitation could also occur for the lowlands sites as a shortwave arrives later today.
A substantial deck of clouds associated with the front and approaching wave should allow MVFR or worse ceilings to continue for most of the period, though brief improvements to VFR could be possible this afternoon. MVFR/IFR visibilities are also expected within rain and snow showers. Conditions could begin to improve to the west very late in the TAF period as high pressure begins building into the area.
5-10kt northwest flow is expected for the rest of today. Flow remains westerly to northwesterly for the rest of the period, though 15-20 kt gusts will be possible overnight into Monday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief improvement to VFR possible this afternoon. Timing of transition from rain to snow may vary. End timing of precipitation may also vary. Gusty winds late today and tonight will fluctuate.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EST 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H M M H H H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in snow showers along the mountains Monday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ039-040-516-518>521-525.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJFZ TAZEWELL COUNTY,VA | 22 sm | 23 min | NW 05 | 1/4 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 29.83 |
Wind History from JFZ
(wind in knots)
Charleston, WV,
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