Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grundy, VA
 | Sunrise 6:22 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 3:05 AM Moonset 4:05 PM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones updated 4/16/2026. Some zones changed. Use Edit if needed.
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grundy, VA
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS61 KRLX 131000 AFDRLX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 600 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.
200 AM Update... No major changes were made to the previous forecast, or with the Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from the Storm Prediction Center.
Confidence in severe potential for this afternoon still hinges on the timing of an earlier round of precipitation. The frost potential for the mountains early Friday morning has diminished slightly. Forecast high temperatures early next week are high enough to challenge daily record highs.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for this afternoon and early this evening from about the Ohio River eastward, the primary threat being damaging wind gusts.
- 2) Cooler weather tonight through Thursday night will be followed by a stout warming trend Friday through the weekend, with record heat possible early next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for this afternoon and early this evening from about the Ohio River eastward, the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. This potential will depend upon recovery in terms of daytime heating after an initial band of showers rolls across the area this morning into early this afternoon.
Mid/upper-level forcing actually exits with an initial short wave early this afternoon, before being reinvigorated over the area by a second, digging short wave within the much larger long wave trough over the eastern U.S.
With the cold front approaching the Ohio River early this afternoon, and the initial band of showers well out ahead of it, a second band is likely to form along/near the Ohio River this afternoon, and trek eastward across the area during the balance of the afternoon, and into the evening hours in the mountains.
It is this line of convection that can take advantage of daytime heating to produce thunderstorms that could become strong to severe this afternoon into this evening. If we could realize close to a KJ/kg of CAPE, the combination of it and around 50 kts 0-6 km bulk shear ahead of the cold front could support minimally severe wind gusts. However, hail cannot be entirely ruled out, and some low level veering of low level flow with height could also support rotation within stronger cores.
The parent mid/upper-level low associated with this system digs southward from southeast Ontario into the northeastern U.S.
tonight and Thursday. This is close enough to induce low top convection in and near the northern mountains tonight and especially Thursday, but the mid level inversion behind the short wave just to the east is likely to be too low to allow ice in cloud, and thus charge separation.
The remainder of the area will be dry Wednesday night through Thursday, but any clearing tonight will be fleeting, and sunshine Thursday will be limited.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure building in behind the Wednesday-Thursday system will bring about a noticeably cooler afternoon on Thursday, and then a mainly clear, calm and cool night Thursday night.
However, the low pressure system surface and aloft will be slow to move farther from the area, and, after bringing enough low level flow and cloud to preclude northern mountain frost early Thursday morning, it may leave enough wind and patchy cloud in the northern mountains to again limit, but not eliminate, frost potential there early Friday morning.
For the first part of the weekend, flat mid-level short wave troughs flatten the ridge that initially builds in Friday behind the Wednesday-Thursday mid/upper-level low. This, along with low to mid-level warm advection ahead of a warm front, could bring showers to the area overnight Friday night into Saturday night, even thunderstorms, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.
After that, the mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a larger, more amplified ridge building in over the eastern third of the U.S. early next week, pushing the warm front well north of the area. As such, showers and thunderstorms become increasingly more diurnal in nature Sunday and Monday, if even that, and temperatures climb to increasingly unseasonably high, summer-like levels. High temperatures in the lowlands push 90 degrees on Sunday, and then the heat peaks next Monday and Tuesday, with high temperatures into the 90s. Record high temperatures are in jeopardy Sunday through Tuesday.
The pattern is progressive, and the mini heat wave should be broken by another Wednesday cold frontal passage next week.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Two lines of showers will cross the area today ahead of an advancing cold front.
The first line of activity is progged to slip down into the Ohio River Valley area near or shortly after 12Z. It will trek eastward across the area this morning hours, and into the early afternoon in the mountains. The most likely impact from this line will be MVFR visibility in rain.
A second line of showers and thunderstorms will form over the middle Ohio Valley this afternoon once the atmosphere recovers from the first line in terms of daytime heating. MVFR visibility in rain was included with this second line as well, along with VCTS. HAve also included PROB30 groups east of the Ohio River, which include IFR visibility and MVFR ceiling in TSRA, with gusts to 30 kts in and near the mountains. A direct impact of a stronger, heavier thunderstorm would lead to stronger impacts.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for this afternoon and early this evening from about the Ohio River eastward, for the possibility of wind gusts as high as 50 kts.
Light south to southwest surface flow will pick up and quickly become gusty from the south to southwest first thing this morning, and then veer to west to southwest ahead of the front, before shifting to west to northwest behind it late this afternoon west and this evening east. Winds will gust into the 20 to 25 kt range today outside thunderstorms ahead of and for a short time behind the front, before diminishing tonight.
Moderate southwest flow aloft will become light to moderate west to northwest behind the front aloft late today west and this evening east.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Precipitation timing and impacts may vary from the forecast today, including thunderstorm impacts mainly this afternoon. Gusty winds will fluctuate outside thunderstorms, and gusts may be strong and erratic in thunderstorms.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/13/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible along the mountains Thursday morning, mainly on ceiling.
EQUIPMENT
The KRLX 88-D radar is down. Techs are troubleshooting.
CLIMATE
Forecast / Record High Temperatures early next week ------------------------------------------------------- Sun, 5/17 | Mon, 5/18 | Tue, 5/19 | ------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 92 / 91 (1962) | 95 / 92 (1982) | 94 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 90 / 95 (1908) | 93 / 92 (1962) | 93 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 89 / 90 (1962) | 93 / 92 (1962) | 92 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 89 / 94 (1962) | 94 / 95 (1962) | 94 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 86 / 86 (1962) | 88 / 87 (1996) | 88 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 87 / 87 (2017) | 91 / 89 (1911) | 91 / 93 (1996) | -------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 600 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.
200 AM Update... No major changes were made to the previous forecast, or with the Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from the Storm Prediction Center.
Confidence in severe potential for this afternoon still hinges on the timing of an earlier round of precipitation. The frost potential for the mountains early Friday morning has diminished slightly. Forecast high temperatures early next week are high enough to challenge daily record highs.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for this afternoon and early this evening from about the Ohio River eastward, the primary threat being damaging wind gusts.
- 2) Cooler weather tonight through Thursday night will be followed by a stout warming trend Friday through the weekend, with record heat possible early next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for this afternoon and early this evening from about the Ohio River eastward, the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. This potential will depend upon recovery in terms of daytime heating after an initial band of showers rolls across the area this morning into early this afternoon.
Mid/upper-level forcing actually exits with an initial short wave early this afternoon, before being reinvigorated over the area by a second, digging short wave within the much larger long wave trough over the eastern U.S.
With the cold front approaching the Ohio River early this afternoon, and the initial band of showers well out ahead of it, a second band is likely to form along/near the Ohio River this afternoon, and trek eastward across the area during the balance of the afternoon, and into the evening hours in the mountains.
It is this line of convection that can take advantage of daytime heating to produce thunderstorms that could become strong to severe this afternoon into this evening. If we could realize close to a KJ/kg of CAPE, the combination of it and around 50 kts 0-6 km bulk shear ahead of the cold front could support minimally severe wind gusts. However, hail cannot be entirely ruled out, and some low level veering of low level flow with height could also support rotation within stronger cores.
The parent mid/upper-level low associated with this system digs southward from southeast Ontario into the northeastern U.S.
tonight and Thursday. This is close enough to induce low top convection in and near the northern mountains tonight and especially Thursday, but the mid level inversion behind the short wave just to the east is likely to be too low to allow ice in cloud, and thus charge separation.
The remainder of the area will be dry Wednesday night through Thursday, but any clearing tonight will be fleeting, and sunshine Thursday will be limited.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure building in behind the Wednesday-Thursday system will bring about a noticeably cooler afternoon on Thursday, and then a mainly clear, calm and cool night Thursday night.
However, the low pressure system surface and aloft will be slow to move farther from the area, and, after bringing enough low level flow and cloud to preclude northern mountain frost early Thursday morning, it may leave enough wind and patchy cloud in the northern mountains to again limit, but not eliminate, frost potential there early Friday morning.
For the first part of the weekend, flat mid-level short wave troughs flatten the ridge that initially builds in Friday behind the Wednesday-Thursday mid/upper-level low. This, along with low to mid-level warm advection ahead of a warm front, could bring showers to the area overnight Friday night into Saturday night, even thunderstorms, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.
After that, the mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a larger, more amplified ridge building in over the eastern third of the U.S. early next week, pushing the warm front well north of the area. As such, showers and thunderstorms become increasingly more diurnal in nature Sunday and Monday, if even that, and temperatures climb to increasingly unseasonably high, summer-like levels. High temperatures in the lowlands push 90 degrees on Sunday, and then the heat peaks next Monday and Tuesday, with high temperatures into the 90s. Record high temperatures are in jeopardy Sunday through Tuesday.
The pattern is progressive, and the mini heat wave should be broken by another Wednesday cold frontal passage next week.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Two lines of showers will cross the area today ahead of an advancing cold front.
The first line of activity is progged to slip down into the Ohio River Valley area near or shortly after 12Z. It will trek eastward across the area this morning hours, and into the early afternoon in the mountains. The most likely impact from this line will be MVFR visibility in rain.
A second line of showers and thunderstorms will form over the middle Ohio Valley this afternoon once the atmosphere recovers from the first line in terms of daytime heating. MVFR visibility in rain was included with this second line as well, along with VCTS. HAve also included PROB30 groups east of the Ohio River, which include IFR visibility and MVFR ceiling in TSRA, with gusts to 30 kts in and near the mountains. A direct impact of a stronger, heavier thunderstorm would lead to stronger impacts.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for this afternoon and early this evening from about the Ohio River eastward, for the possibility of wind gusts as high as 50 kts.
Light south to southwest surface flow will pick up and quickly become gusty from the south to southwest first thing this morning, and then veer to west to southwest ahead of the front, before shifting to west to northwest behind it late this afternoon west and this evening east. Winds will gust into the 20 to 25 kt range today outside thunderstorms ahead of and for a short time behind the front, before diminishing tonight.
Moderate southwest flow aloft will become light to moderate west to northwest behind the front aloft late today west and this evening east.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Precipitation timing and impacts may vary from the forecast today, including thunderstorm impacts mainly this afternoon. Gusty winds will fluctuate outside thunderstorms, and gusts may be strong and erratic in thunderstorms.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/13/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible along the mountains Thursday morning, mainly on ceiling.
EQUIPMENT
The KRLX 88-D radar is down. Techs are troubleshooting.
CLIMATE
Forecast / Record High Temperatures early next week ------------------------------------------------------- Sun, 5/17 | Mon, 5/18 | Tue, 5/19 | ------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 92 / 91 (1962) | 95 / 92 (1982) | 94 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 90 / 95 (1908) | 93 / 92 (1962) | 93 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 89 / 90 (1962) | 93 / 92 (1962) | 92 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 89 / 94 (1962) | 94 / 95 (1962) | 94 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 86 / 86 (1962) | 88 / 87 (1996) | 88 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 87 / 87 (2017) | 91 / 89 (1911) | 91 / 93 (1996) | -------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KJFZ
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KJFZ
Wind History Graph: JFZ
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Charleston, WV,
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