Grundy, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grundy, VA

April 15, 2024 12:30 PM EDT (16:30 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:52 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM
Moonrise 11:15 AM   Moonset 1:54 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grundy, VA
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Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 151452 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1052 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
The Ohio River remains in flood today. A cool front slowly works south through this evening, before returning northward as a warm front Tuesday. A cold front crosses Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1040 AM Monday...

Baroclinic zone was located near a CMH to HLG line based on metars and satellite as of 1430Z. Boundary layer mixing will attempt to offset low level moisture advection with the sagging front. As such, have lowered afternoon dewpoints, more in line with LAMP guidance and raised highs a degree or two across the board. Regarding convection late this afternoon into early evening, the previous discussion is still valid. If anything, timing appears to have been delayed until the evening along and south of I64. Coverage remains uncertain, though at least isolated can be expected. Regardless, any convection that manages to become surface based late this afternoon will initially have the potential for damaging winds and perhaps some large hail.

As of 630 AM Monday...

Adjusted temperatures up across northeastern portions of the area where cloud cover is largely holding temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Point:

* Conditional risk of severe storms late this afternoon into this evening - large hail and damaging winds the primary threats

A steep mid-level lapse rate plume or elevated mixed layer sourced from the Desert Southwest and Inter Mountainous West will linger over the region today. Beneath this feature, a convectively reinforced cool front currently just south of I-70 will continue to slowly drift south through this evening. Capping at the base of the EML will likely suppress surface based convection through at least early afternoon, but surface heating and moisture pooling along this boundary should eventually support at least a broken line of convection popping later into the afternoon or evening. Given the aforementioned steep mid-level lapse rates, deep layer shear around 40KTs, pronounced mid-level drying, and decent surface dew point depressions large, perhaps isolated damaging hail and locally damaging winds will be the primary threats. With west to east storm motions across the west to east oriented boundary, could also see some training of storms which could yield some isolated water issues. Overall confidence on convective coverage is rather low given generally poor handling of the boundary, but if storms do materialize confidence in at least some strong to severe storms is high. This is reflected by the current marginal risk outlook from SPC - if confidence in convective coverage increases, a category upgrade would certainly be possible.

As the surface front progresses south this evening and with loss of heating, any convective coverage will wane.

With the cool front making slowly southward progress than previously depicted, will see another very warm day today for most of the forecast area with highs in the 80s south, and mid to upper 70 across the north. Will not see nearly the level of dry air to mix into aloft as was seen yesterday with surface dew point remaining largely in the mid 50s, except perhaps for some locally drier air immediately in the wake of the cool front.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 245 AM Monday...

A front stalled over the area will push northward as a warm front on Tuesday, providing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. This will also push afternoon temperatures well above normal for this time of year, with readings in some locations of the central and southern lowlands reaching into the lower 80s. Some models are showing fairly decent surface based CAPE (over 1600 at CRW on the meso NAM) with a freezing level in the 10000 to 11000 range. Can't rule out some afternoon hail south of the front. The front will push north of the region Tuesday evening, leaving the entire area in the warm sector.
This will create a very mild night, with most of the lowlands remaining in the 60s.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase even more Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a weak cold front pushing through Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 245 AM Monday...

Slightly cooler air can be expected on Thursday behind a weak cold front. A reinforcing cold front will then push through Friday or Friday night, depending on the model of choice. Either way, even cooler temperatures can be expected for the weekend.
What remains uncertain is how quickly the cold air moves in, whether frontal moisture remains over the area as an upper level short wave moves through, and the timing of that short wave.
This leaves a low confidence in the weekend forecast, especially in the precipitation department.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 630 AM Monday...

A convectively reinforced cool front sinks slowly southward through the day today and will be the primary focus for firing of additional storms this afternoon and evening. Predominately VFR conditions are expected with localized reductions possible in any heavier showers and thunderstorms through late this afternoon. Confidence is rather low in placement and coverage of storms this afternoon into this evening with capping potentially holding a lot of activity at bay.
For now will largely address with VCTS. In the wake of the cold front, more widespread MVFR ceilings are possible overnight tonight into Tuesday morning with patchy fog possible in areas that receive measurable rain.

Winds generally westerly around 10KTs shifting west-northwesterly after frontal passage.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and placement of convection will need fine tuning based on position of the effective boundary this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night.

HYDROLOGY
As of 250 AM Monday...

**Flooding Continues Along the Ohio River today Monday**

Water from the Thursday's heavy rain event continues to work into the mainstem rivers. While flood waters have receded from much of the area, flooding continues along portions of the Ohio River. Flooding is currently occurring from Marietta down to near Point Pleasant. Additionally, backwater flooding from the Ohio River on the connecting tributaries will continue to produce water over some roadways, even miles away from the Ohio River.

Please visit water.noaa.gov for specific river observations and forecasts.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KJFZ TAZEWELL COUNTY,VA 22 sm15 minW 1010 smPartly Cloudy70°F54°F56%30.08
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