Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grundy, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1.) The chance for scattered light rain showers returns today amid breezy to gusty southwest winds (20-35 mph). Rainfall totals will be on the light side, but a wetting rain could occur in isolated locations.

2.) Unseasonably hot conditions will persist through the work week under an amplified upper level ridge. Temperatures will run 15 to 20 degrees above normal, challenging daily records at times. Overnight temperatures will be mild.

3.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day during the work week, primarily during the afternoon/evening hours, with the best chance for rain being across the northern portion of the CWA A widespread wetting rain is not expected.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A quiet and very mild morning at present, with much of the lowlands and ridges currently still in the mid 60s to low/mid 70s courtesy of turbulent low/mid level flow. Some of the more sheltered valleys have decoupled to an extent allowing temperatures to cool into the 50s. ISOLD to SCT light showers currently across the central Ohio Valley courtesy of dynamic lifting with a robust low-level jet, amid southwest moisture advection, will gradually shift into the area towards dawn and throughout Monday. Given a rather dry antecedent low/mid level airmass, some virga at onset could occur, with ISOLD to SCT light rain showers expected across the area thereafter (generally 30 to 60 PoPs across the forecast area today). Rainfall amounts will generally be a tenth of an inch or less, although localized corridors of slightly higher amounts (a wetting rain)
could occur. Activity should taper across much of the area by this evening, with just ISOLD showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder possible tonight across the far northern zones in the CWA Given increased cloud cover today, highs will be cooler than yesterday, with mid 70s to 80 expected across the lowlands. Southwest wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph are expected today, but amid much higher RH values (generally in the 40-50% range). Localized gusts up to 40 mph could occur this morning with showers.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Persistent south to southwest flow and associated WAA courtesy of a broad upper ridge centered across the eastern CONUS will result in continued well above normal temperatures throughout the work week and into the weekend. High temperatures will generally be 15 to 20 degrees above normal, translating into mid/upper 80s for highs across the lowlands. Some record high temperatures remain possible, primarily on Wednesday (see climate section below). This will also result in the overnight periods being well above normal, with lows generally in the 60s across the lowlands, while 50s in the mountains (typical valley cold spots could be slightly cooler). Relief from this very early season heat looks to finally come on Sunday as a strong cold front crosses.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Periodic chances (generally 20-50%) for showers/storms are expected throughout the rest of the work week (Tuesday onward), especially across the northern portion of the CWA, as weak upper waves cross generally north of the region atop the upper ridge. This combined with increasing low/mid level moisture return from the southwest, courtesy of a Gulf moisture feed (core of moisture feed remains west of CWA), should result in somewhat reduced fire weather concerns compared to that of late, even with a widespread wetting rain not currently anticipated.
Shower/storm activity will generally be favored during the afternoon/evening hours with diurnal heating, with any organized severe weather not anticipated at this time. Overall, the best chance for rain during this period currently looks to be late Thursday into Thursday night as a more robust shortwave traverses the region. Otherwise, confidence in shower/storm potential is rather low, with the general feeling being that central guidance is currently too robust with PoPs throughout the rest of this timeframe. Finally, breezy southwest flow can be expected at times throughout the work week, primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period (until 12Z Tuesday). CIGs will gradually lower today to 040-070 as SCT light rain showers move into the area. While somewhat unlikely, a very brief MVFR VSBY restriction or two cannot entirely be ruled out if a heavier shower were to develop. Dry conditions then return by and large by 00Z Tuesday outside of isolated showers across the north.

A period of LLWS is anticipated this morning, lasting until ~ 13-14Z in some areas. It will be breezy across the area today.
Southwest surface gusts of 20-30 knots were included at all TAF sites for today, with gusts quickly diminishing around sunset.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Very brief MVFR VSBY with a heavier shower or two cannot entirely be ruled out.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE MON 04/13/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the work week.
However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Climate
Persistent, anomously warm conditions are forecast through much of the week with several days of near or record highs.

Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------------------------- | Tue, 4/14 | Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 85 / 88 (2018) | 88 / 89 (1994) | 86 / 89 (2002) | HTS | 87 / 87 (1941) | 89 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | CKB | 82 / 87 (2018) | 85 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) | PKB | 85 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 83 / 88 (2002) | BKW | 80 / 83 (2018) | 83 / 82 (2012) | 81 / 84 (2002) | EKN | 81 / 85 (2018) | 84 / 81 (2012) | 82 / 85 (2012) | -------------------------------------------------------- | Fri, 4/17 | Sat, 4/18 | --------------------------------------- CRW | 86 / 89 (1976) | 90 / 90 (2019) | HTS | 86 / 87 (1976) | 89 / 89 (1955) | CKB | 82 / 88 (1969) | 88 / 88 (1976) | PKB | 84 / 89 (1976) | 88 / 91 (1976) | BKW | 80 / 84 (1976) | 84 / 86 (1976) | EKN | 80 / 87 (1976) | 85 / 88 (1976) | ---------------------------------------

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.