Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charles City, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:26PM Monday October 21, 2019 3:09 AM EDT (07:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:42PMMoonset 1:34PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 1234 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
.gale warning in effect until 4 am edt early this morning...
Rest of tonight..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of rain and drizzle.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..N winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 1234 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure will continue northeast and away from the local area tonight. Weak high pressure builds into the area Monday. A strong cold front will cross the region Tuesday. High pressure returns for the mid week period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charles City CDP, VA
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location: 37.33, -77.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 210602
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
202 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will continue to move away from the local area
overnight. Weak high pressure builds into the area Monday. A
strong cold front will cross the region Tuesday. High pressure
returns for the mid week period.

Near term until 8 am this morning
As of 930 pm edt Sunday...

latest sfc analysis shows ~1003 mb low pressure centered ~100
miles E of wallops island continuing to move away from the
region. In its wake, overcast skies gusty N winds prevail across
the area. A wind advisory remains in effect until 11 pm for the
md beaches, as winds in near ocean city have been frequently gusting
to 35-40 kt over the past few hours. In addition, there are
still some areas of -ra dz near the coast (especially over the
lower md ERN shore). Lingering -ra dz slowly tapers off from w
to E through the early morning hours, with additional rainfall
amounts of a few hundredths of an inch at best. Guidance still
shows the potential for some patchy fg across the piedmont
(mainly after 4 am). Any fog that does form should dissipate no
later than 13-14z. Mainly cloudy overnight, with a few breaks in
the clouds expected across WRN zones. Winds slowly diminish
(especially after midnight) as the low continues to pull
offshore. Overnight lows range from the mid-upper 40s W to the
upper 50s in coastal SE va NE nc.

Short term 8 am this morning through Wednesday
As of 345 pm edt Sunday...

weak high pressure builds into the area mon. However, low and mid
levels remain moist and with a north wind, don't see much in the way
of clearing. May see some partial aftrn Sun across the west, otw,
will call it mstly cldy but dry. Highs mid-upr 60s.

Deepening low pressure moves across the great lakes region Mon nite
then becomes occluded as it moves into into ERN canada tues. The
trailing cold front apprchs the mts Mon nite then sweeps across
the local area late tue. With the gom opened up, ample moisture is
progged to stream north ahead of the front, but not crossing the
mts until tue. In addition, models show low pressure dvlpng along
the bndry, tracking NE across the va piedmont along the i95 corridor
late tue.

Forecast wise, will keep Mon nite mstly cldy and mainly dry, except
for a slght chc pops across the WRN most zones late. Lows mid-upr
50s. Interesting forecast Tue as SPC has placed the entire forecast
area in a marginal svr risk with the threat being damaging wind gusts.

However, it appears that it will be cldy with shwrs arnd most of the
day. Thus, pops will vary from categorical across the west to chc
along the coast. Added slght chc thunder in attm. Highs mid 60s nw
to low-mid 70s se.

The front pushes offshore Tue eve. Will carry pops thru then eve,
then clearing W to e. Lows low 40s NW to mid 50s se.

Mstly sunny Wed as high pressure builds into the sern states. Highs
mid-upr 60s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 345 pm edt Sunday...

the extended period (wed night) starts with dry seasonable
conditions as sfc high pressure will be centered near the area. The
high becomes centered over the CWA on Thu before moving offshore by
thu night. At the same time, upper troughing amplifies as it moves
from the rockies to the plains. Model solutions diverge with respect
to the evolution of the trough from Friday through next weekend. The
ecmwf gem are forecasting an upper low to form near the base of the
trough in the SRN plains and very slowly move ewd through the
weekend (with our area remaining dry through most of sat). The gfs
has a more progressive solution (w rain moving into the area by
late Fri before the trough axis crosses the region Sat night). For
now, went with a model blend with no higher than chc pops for the
fri night-sun timeframe. Will continue to monitor model trends
during the next few days. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s
to low 70s on Thu Fri and lows mainly in the 40s inland with low 50s
near the coast (some upper 30s possible on Thu with the high
near over the area). Slightly cooler next weekend W highs mainly in
the 60s (low 70s possible in far SE va NE nc).

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
As of 200 am edt Monday...

ifr CIGS prevail across the area early this morning, with some
lingering -ra dz near the coast. -ra dz slowly tapering off over
the next few hours as low pressure offshore of the delmarva
coast continues to pull farther offshore this morning. Still a
chc for some patchy 4sm br at ric toward sunrise (mainly 08-10z).

However, expecting the bulk of the <2sm br fg to remain in the
piedmont and have held out for the time being.

Mostly cloudy conditions persist through the day today, with
cigs improving to at least high-end MVFR by aftn (vfr possible
after 18z... Especially at ric). Winds become light and veer to
the ne-e by evening.

Outlook...

scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected ahead of a
cold front Tue which may result in brief periods of sub-vfr
conditions. High pressure builds into the area for the midweek
period.

Marine
As of 1030 pm edt Sunday...

1003 mb low pressure is lifting NE off DELMARVA late this
evening. Winds remain quite gusty to the N W of the center of
the low with gusts between 35 and 40 kt along the md beaches
and also down the chesapeake bay (even some 40+ kt gusts at the
highest sensors). As the low pulls away from the coast through
early Monday morning expect N to NE winds to become more N to nw
while remaining gusty. Will maintain gales from CAPE charles
north through 4 am and gales for all of the ches bay and anz656
(from CAPE charles va to the nc border) for gusts between 35
amd 40 kt through at least 1 am (pending wind speed trends in
the next or two). Elsewhere, scas will remain unchanged. Seas
5-9 ft; waves 3-5 ft on the bay. Once the current gales expire,
scas will likely need to replace them through the rest of Monday
morning, while lasting into Monday night on the coastal waters
due to seas remaining elevated.

Winds will diminish quickly after sunrise Monday as high
pressure builds in. The next cold front will approach the area
late Tuesday with NW winds 10-20 knots in its wake. High
pressure returns for the late week period.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 1030 pm edt Sunday...

all coastal flood headlines have ended. As winds switch to the
nnw overnight a generous ebb tide will occur, helping water to
exit the bay quickly and should preclude any tidal flooding for
the next high tide cycle.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 am edt early this morning for
anz635>637.

Gale warning until 4 am edt early this morning for anz630>632-
634-650-652-654-656.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
anz638.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for anz658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Eri mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Eri
aviation... Eri mam
marine... Jdm rhr
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 21 mi39 min 57°F 64°F1014.4 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 24 mi99 min NNW 4.1 58°F 1014 hPa56°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 37 mi51 min NNW 12 G 18 59°F 66°F1013.2 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi51 min N 23 G 27 59°F 1013.4 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 47 mi57 min NE 1.9 G 8.9 59°F 1013.3 hPa
44072 48 mi39 min ENE 19 G 23 59°F

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA15 mi75 minNNW 1010.00 miOvercast56°F54°F93%1015.1 hPa
Chesterfield County Airport, VA20 mi73 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast56°F54°F93%1016.2 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA21 mi74 minNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F52°F89%1015.2 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi74 minN 9 G 147.00 miOvercast57°F57°F100%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRIC

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN5NE4SE3S54SW6SW45S5SE4SE3SE3SE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW5CalmCalmCalmNW5N10NW11NW14
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NW9N7NW9N4N3CalmCalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Westover, James River, Virginia
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Westover
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:16 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 08:43 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:09 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:12 PM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.20.80.70.711.51.92.22.32.21.81.410.70.60.71.11.62.22.62.82.82.5

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 09:34 AM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:51 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.30.90.60.50.611.62.22.52.52.31.81.30.90.60.50.611.62.42.82.92.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.