Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charles City, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:34PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 8:20 PM EDT (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:44PMMoonset 7:10AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 631 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 631 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered off the mid atlantic coast through Wednesday. Low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday moving just offshore Friday and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charles City CDP, VA
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location: 37.33, -77.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 072356 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 756 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak frontal boundary over the Delmarva slowly lifts north this evening. Low pressure slowly drifts northeast from the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday before lifting northeast along the mid Atlantic coast Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday .

Latest analysis indicates a leftover frontal boundary now pushing slowly to the N into eastern MD and DE as a warm front. This has been the focus for showers/tstms and locally heavy rain today on the lower MD eastern shore but the coverage and intensity of the convection has waned somewhat over the past hr. Will still maintain 30-40% chance PoPs over the far northern portions of the CWA including the eastern shore into early evening but we should continue to see an overall downward trend through sunset. Another area with PoPs 30-4)% will be across interior NE NC/interior SE VA and south central VA into the early evening hrs. Elsewhere PoPs will be 20% or less. No severe storms are expected given very light flow aloft/weak shear. Isolated storms may produce gusty winds to ~30-40 mph if cell mergers/deeper cores develop. Locally heavy rain is possible in any storm.

Partly cloudy tonight as any lingering convection across the SW dissipates shortly after sunset. Attention then turns to the moisture from the low pressure system that is currently centered over GA. With a very slow movement to the E/NE overnight, dry wx is expected from after sunset through ~09Z, then will have just ~20% PoPs moving into NE NC. Warm/humid with lows mainly 70-75F.

The sfc low to the S will only move a little more to the NE during the day Wed.There does appear to be enough of an increase in moisture for likely PoPs into NE NC and far southern VA, but PoPs are expected to drop off fairly quickly to the N. Partly cloudy N and mostly cloudy S. Highs range from the low-mid 80s S to around 90F. A marginal ERO risk covers the SE for locally heavy rain given the increasing PWAT values and minimal steering flow aloft. This is mentioned in the HWO.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday .

The model consensus has the sfc low continuing to move NE very slowly through the period, centered somewhere in the vicinity of the SC/NC coast Wed night, and reaching to SE VA by 12Z/Fri, then tracking off the Delmarva Fri aftn. The deterministic 12Z/07 GFS/ECMWF/GEM all keep the highest QPF offshore, with QPF amounts averaging 0.25" to 1.00" over the CWA through fri aftn. The NAM develops a mesoscale wave of low pressure W of Ches Bay on Fri and generates a small area of 5"+ of rain. While the NAM depiction is unrealistic, the current QPF forecast is for an event total of 1-2" over SE VA/NE NC and 0.50" to 1.00" into central VA. This due to abundant tropical moisture overs the region (PW's 1.75 - 2 inches) with the steadiest and heaviest pcpn progged to hug the coast ivof the trof. Thus, PoPs Wed night into Fri are high chance to likely through the period (highest near the coast). Overall the most widespread coverage at this time looks to be Thu. A marginal ERO risk area expands across most of the local area on Thursday mainly for localized flash flooding. Lows Wed night 70-75. Highs Thurs in the 80s. Will maintain high chance to likely PoPs Fri (highest E) with highs into the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Monday .

On Saturday the low will be lifting up the NE coast, however a series of shortwaves passing through will keep showers/storms in the forecast through at least Monday. Beyond Monday there are model differences with the ECMWF bringing upper level ridging into the area, while the GFS continues with a trough over the eastern US. For now will keep chance pops in for Tuesday. Temperatures over the weekend and into the beginning of next week remain seasonably warm, with high temps ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low temps ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 755 PM EDT Tuesday .

VFR conditions outside of isolated convection early this evening. Winds mainly south at less than 10 kts. Mainly VFR through tonight/Wed, with some chance for showers/T-storms mainly by late morning/early aftn (ECG could see some flight restrictions by 14-16z). Did allow for a brief period of BR at KSBY/KPHF given heavier showers earlier this aftn and light winds overnight.

OUTLOOK . Increased coverage of showers/tstms is expected by later Wed aftn through Fri as low pressure is expected to slowly lift NE along the coastal Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic coast. Patchy morning stratus is also possible Thursday through Saturday as low-level moisture increases.

MARINE. As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday .

Southerly flow has increase late this afternoon to 10 to 15 kt with a broad area of high pressure off the Carolina and low pressure north of the Great Lakes. Southerly winds could increase a little more later this evening (especially across the Chesapeake Bay) to around 15 kt with a few gusts near 20 kt for a brief time. Winds will decrease late tonight and towards daybreak Wednesday. Wind remains SE around 10 kt through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Waves in the Bay will average 2 ft late this evening decreasing to 1 foot Wednesday.

A low pressure slowly moving across the deep south will emerge along the Carolina coast and slowly deepen as it tracks up the Atlantic coast. The exact track of the center of low pressure is still uncertain. However, GFS and Ecmwf are is decent agreement slowly tracking the low from eastern NC to just off the VA coast from late Thursday into Friday. Winds will will likely increase Thursday morning and through the day as the low pressure moves north across eastern NC and the pressure gradient tightens across the VA and NC coast. E to ENE winds will increase throughout the day on Thursday to 15-20 kt as the low pressure tracks along the VA/NC coast. Waves and seas will increase Thursday as the low pressure tracks over the area. Waves in the bay (and lower James Rivers) are expected to be 2-3 ft and seas will increase to 4-5 ft.

As the low tracks northeast away our coastline on Friday, winds will turn NE to N then NW and decrease. Southerly flow returns by Saturday afternoon as the low continues to pull away to the northeast and a general piedmont trough sets up for Saturday and Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . LKB/MPR LONG TERM . CMF AVIATION . LKB/MAM MARINE . JAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 24 mi51 min SE 1.9 82°F 1017 hPa72°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 37 mi51 min SE 8 G 11 81°F 82°F1015.5 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi51 min SSE 19 G 21 81°F 1016.4 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 47 mi51 min SSE 12 G 13 82°F 1016.3 hPa
44072 48 mi31 min SSW 14 G 18 81°F

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA15 mi27 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F68°F61%1015.8 hPa
Chesterfield County Airport, VA20 mi25 minESE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F73°F68%1016.3 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA21 mi26 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F70°F67%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRIC

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5S7S6S5S5S3CalmE4S4S4SW6W4S6S5S10S8S10SE9S9S9S6SE6S11
1 day agoSE4SE7S5S6S6SW6SW8S5S3S4S3SW6S7SW6S4S6S8S8S9S13SW11SW12S8S6
2 days agoSE5SE7SE5S4SE5S3S3CalmSE4S3S3SE3S5SE43E11SE105S7S7S9SE8SE7SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Westover, James River, Virginia
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Westover
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:52 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:49 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.61.42.12.62.82.72.31.710.40-0.10.10.71.422.32.321.510.50.1

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:36 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 PM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.51.22.12.83.23.22.82.31.71.10.60.20.10.61.32.12.62.92.72.31.71.10.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.