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FXUS66 KHNX 052145 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 145 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023


SYNOPSIS
A warming trend will continue with record highs possible across parts of the San Joaquin Valley on Wednesday afternoon. A disturbance will bring a chance for light precipitation on Wednesday, mainly around Yosemite NP. A cooling trend will lower temperatures to near normal by Friday.

DISCUSSION
Patchy fog this morning across the San Joaquin Valley, otherwise another sunny day as temperatures continue their warming trend.
Temperatures is afternoon are expected to reach into the upper 60s and should reach the 70 degree mark on Wednesday. With the ridge of high pressure still overhead, morning fog developed as winds across the area remained light. The ridge will remain in place for another night as mist and haze returns to the valley. The latter part of the week will see a change in the weather as a disturbance travels through the region and brushes the northern portions the Central California Interior. While precipitation will remain mostly north of Fresno, Winds will increase across the district along with a significant drop in temperatures.

Ensembles continue showing high confidence in maintaining the ridge pattern over the West through mid-week. Ensemble uncertainty in the magnitude of Thursday’s storm remains higher then the timing of the passage. Therefore, will continue with the weaker solution and keep the better potential of precipitation mostly north of Fresno County. At this point, NBM probability of measurable precipitation has increased by ten percent as the area from Madera to Merced range from 30 to 40 percent, respectively.
As for fog development, NBM is has dropped its probability of exceedance percentage of reaching visibility values less the 5 and 3 miles. Probability of exceedance of reaching values less then 1 mile has dropped to less then 10 percent for tonight. Therefore, while mist and haze has a good potential of developing, fog will be even more difficult to develop beyond very patchy coverage.

The warming trend continues as probability of exceedance of reaching 70 degrees remains high for the Wednesday period. By Wednesday, probability of reaching or exceeding record highs hit double digit percentages. Therefore, confidence is high that warming will continue through Wednesday as a chance exist of reaching a record max value. Afterward, NBM indicates high confidence in a cooling trend in a post-frontal environment. While not much precipitation is expected over the lower portions of the Central California Interior, the cooling trend may lead to possible frost and freeze toward the end of the week. NBM probability of exceedance of reaching 32 degrees rises to above 60 percent (north of Kern County) by Saturday. At this point, a ridge begins to rebuild back over the West as the storm exits the West.
While warming will start again, it will be a slow process as cold air lingers over the area into early next week. By day six and seven, Cluster analysis hints toward having the ridge axis approach the West Coast to continue the warming trend into the next work week.

AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail across Central California until 08Z Wednesday. Afterward, Areas of MVFR in mist/haze with a less then 10 percent chance of IFR/LIFR in fog across the San Joaquin Valley from 08Z to 18Z Wednesday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
On Tuesday December 5 2023, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced County, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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San Joaquin Valley, CA,