Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dixon Lane-Meadow Creek, CA

KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated fire risk concerns exist in the mountains and adjacent foothills in Kern and Tulare Counties this weekend due to gusty winds and low humidity.

2. A overall warming trend is expected through next week.

3. A minor cooling trend takes place Tuesday with a moderate chance of gusts above 40 mph along the Mojave Desert slopes.

DISCUSSION
Northeasterly flow continues over the Kern County desert this morning as the trough that brought gusty winds to southern portions of our forecast area has slid more to the southwest to off the coast of San Diego and Baja California. Winds will continue to lighten a bit today as the trough briefly moves away. However, ensembles strongly agree that as the ridge over the Pacific Ocean builds today and tomorrow it will push the cutoff low east on Tuesday which will lead to a slight cooldown for us along with an increase of winds again. However, the probabilities have a 5 to 20 percent chance of 45 mph gusts on Tuesday for most of the Kern County desert except for a 45 percent chance at Mojave, which is due to the influence of Tehachapi Pass.

The ensembles have the ridge moving onshore on Wednesday and strengthening into the weekend. Temperatures will warm as a result with a 50 to 65 percent chance of highs of at least 80 on Thursday. Friday through next weekend has a 65 to 80 percent chance of highs of at least 80. Next Sunday has a 50 to 75 percent chance of highs of at least 85 degrees. Precipitation chances will be near zero for the week ahead thanks to the ridge. The warmness continues as the CPC has a very high (70 to 90 percent) chance of above average temepratures in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. There also is a 50 to 70 percent chance of below average precipitation in the 6-10 day outlook and a 40 to 60 percent chance of below average precip in the 8-14 day outlook.


AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather is a concern in Tulare and Kern Counties in the mountains and foothills through today, where northeasterly winds and low humidity will cause elevated concerns. However, moist fuels will keep fire risk from rising further.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.