Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Enon, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:53PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 12:19 AM EST (05:19 UTC) Moonrise 4:40PMMoonset 6:27AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 957 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Overnight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 957 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the local waters this evening. Canadian high pressure slowly builds over the region Wednesday into Thursday. Low pressure from the gulf coast states tracks northeast near the mid- atlantic coast Friday night into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Enon, VA
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location: 37.4, -77.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 110016 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 716 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front crosses the area this evening through tonight. High pressure returns late Wednesday through Thursday. Low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast Friday before approaching the area this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. As of 715 PM EDT Tuesday .

Sfc cold front starting to push across far western portions of the local area this evening. Made minor adjustments to Pop/Temps through midnight, mainly lower pops along the coastal plain in the pseudo-warm sector with sct showers expected before midnight. A light rain or even drizzle across the west for the next few hours, before more appreciable moisture arrives late.

Did get a little bit more aggressive with RA -> SN transition wording late. The past few HRRR runs and even the RAP doing better than the downscale NAM (Nam- Conest) this evening. Still, previous forecast looks good overall . with a very minor snow "event" expected across the area late tonight, if you could even call it that. Some light snow accumulation on elevated/grassy sfcs likely for the morning rush over far northern tier of the CWA, with the metro area, VA northern neck and lower eastern shore potentially seeing a very light accumulation on grassy sfcs before precipitation ends by mid- morning.

As of 340 PM EST Tuesday .

Late afternoon upper air analysis shows a large upper low centered over Hudson Bay, with broad troughing over the Plains/Midwest. The deep trough is positioned between two areas of upper ridging: one along the Pacific coast and another well off the SE CONUS coast. At the surface, strong low pressure was over Quebec/Newfoundland, with ~1029 mb high pressure over the Central Plains. A strong (trailing) cold front was draped from Quebec SSW through the central CWA to the ern Gulf Coast. A secondary push of colder air was located to the north and west of the initial boundary. There is an area of showers from srn VA to VA Northern Neck (along the initial boundary), but it is mainly dry across the NW Piedmont and over coastal/SE zones. Skies are overcast across the northwest two-thirds of the CWA, with partly-mostly cloudy skies over the SE half of the CWA. Temperatures are in the upper 50s-around 60F from the SW Piedmont-central VA-Dorchester County (MD). In contrast, it has warmed into the mid-upper 70s across coastal SE VA/NE NC (with low 70s across the northern part of Hampton Roads/the VA Ern Shore.

As the initial boundary continues to cross the region this evening . the aforementioned area of showers will continue to move eastward. Have likely PoPs across ern zones (except for NE NC) through 00z w/ chc PoPs farther west. Not a whole lot of rain expected during the next few hours (mainly around 0.10" or less). The secondary (stronger) push of CAA arrives tonight, which will allow temperatures to drop rather quickly after 00-03z. At the same time (or perhaps a couple hours later), a stratiform area of light/moderate rain develops/moves over the area. This is due to (in part) a band of strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis that will become situated across the area behind the sfc cold front (as the mid/upper trough axis remains to our W). PoPs increase to 90-100% for all areas (except for the SE corner of the CWA) by 06z Wed.

As the night wears on, low-level thicknesses continue to fall as sfc temperatures keep dropping. As a result, the pcpn is expected to mix with, then change over to snow in areas from the NW Piedmont to Dorchester County (MD) by 4-5 AM before potentially changing to snow in areas north/west of a FVX-RIC- SBY line by 5-7 AM. Cannot rule out a brief period of sleet during the changeover, given that guidance continues to hint at a warm nose between 800-700 mb across much of the area. Pcpn quickly tapers off from W to E from Wed AM-midday. PoPs decrease to 15-35% by 15z Wed. Not a whole lot of changes regarding forecast thinking. Generally have a dusting to 0.5" of snow across the NW Piedmont, VA Nrn Neck, and the Lower MD Ern Shore (w/ no accumulations elsewhere). Certainly could see a few locally higher totals (likely aob 1") if the snow comes down hard enough for an hour or two. Latest 12z/10 EPS probabilities for > 1" of snow have decreased to 10-20% across far nrn portions of the CWA. Temperatures will remain aoa freezing through the event, so not expecting much in the way of impacts. QPFs tonight-Wed are generally a few tenths of an inch.

Clouds decrease across the west Wed aftn, while it remains partly cloudy across far SE VA/NE NC. Not much rise in temps given the clouds and CAA. Highs Wed will be in the low 40s in most areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 340 PM EST Tuesday .

Strong (~1040 mb) high pressure builds toward the area late Wed-Wed night before becoming centered just to our N by 12z Thu. A secondary CAA surge is progged to arrive Wed night (though it does not appear as strong as it did yesterday). Nevertheless, expect lows in the low-mid 20s inland, while temperatures bottom out around 30F across coastal SE VA/NE NC (as light onshore flow persists through much of the night).

The high becomes centered over New England Thu aftn before pushing east to the Canadian Maritimes by Thu night. Still cold on Thu with highs ranging from the upper 30s N to the mid- upper 40s SE. Upper troughing starts to deepen from the Midwest to the MS River Valley on Fri as low pressure develops along the eastern Gulf Coast. This will allow pcpn to move into the area from S to N on Friday as deep layer moisture/WAA increase across the area. Thus, will indicate increasing clouds but will continue to keep it mostly dry thru 12z Fri (as the latest GFS/ECMWF solutions continue to show pcpn holding off until later in the day). Lows Fri will likely occur around 06z before temperatures level off/rise a bit due to increasing clouds/WAA. Lows Fri morning range from the upper 20s across the Piedmont the low 40s in coastal SE VA/NE NC. Pcpn rapidly overspreads the area on Fri as the low tracks NNE to the ern Carolinas by late in the day. PoPs increase to 50-80% by aftn. This should be mostly in the form of rain, but cannot rule out a couple hours of light freezing rain across the NW Piedmont if the pcpn starts early enough. Will continue to advertise this in the forecast, but this should quickly change to rain by mid morning as temperatures rise above 32F. Quite a range of high temperatures on Fri, as models continue to hint at the development of an in- situ wedge. Forecast highs Fri range from the low 40s across the Piedmont to near 60F over SE VA/NE NC. QPFs from 12z Fri-00z Sat generally range from 0.2-0.5" (lowest NE/highest SW).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Wednesday .

Short wave upper trough will develop across the southern Plain states Friday and move east into the Deep South. This will allow for an area of low pressure to form at the surface across the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time on Friday, a large area of high pressure will move off the New England coast and will allow the warm air to return to area ahead of the low pressure system. As the upper level shortwave moves northeast, the sfc low pressure will track northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico along the east coast. The center of the low pressure system will likely track just inland along the coast, across eastern VA, NC, and MD. Rain will overspread the area early Saturday morning as the low tracks over the area. The low pressure system will then continue to track northeast into interior New England and Quebec, giving the area a dry northwest flow for Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday will have a large range across the area. With temperatures climbing into mid 60s across the NC and VA coast, and Delmarva. While the cooler air will be trapped east of the mountain across the VA Piedmont with highs in the upper 40s. Sunday morning temperatures will be in 35-45 and highs in the low 50s with mostly sunny skies.

Dry conditions will continue into Monday as a cold area of high pressure moves southeast across the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure will be centered over the area Monday with high temperatures on Monday in the mid 40s and lows Monday night in the low 30s. Models are indicating that another area of low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and track into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday, bringing the next chance of rain, and possibly wintry precip for the onset of precip.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 715 PM EST Tuesday .

VFR conditions prevail early this evening across the sern terminals, while MVFR CIGs continue across northern terminals (RIC/SBY). A cold front will push across the area over the next few hours, with showers becoming more widespread overnight. While prevailing VSBYs likely remain VFR, brief MVFR (or even IFR) VSBYs will be possible in these showers. Showers likely continue through the evening . but there may be a few breaks in the rain through 04z.

Behind the frontal passage, still expect deteriorating flying conditions, with CIGs falling from MVFR to IFR late tonight in addition to RA (VSBYs mainly between 2-4SM). Winds become NNW overnight, gusting to 15-20 kt along the coast late. There is an increasing chc that pcpn changes over to PL, then SN late tonight/Wed AM before ending at RIC/SBY. Not expecting much in the way of impacts from wintry pcpn, but maintained a mention of mixed pcpn in the TAFs for RIC/SBY (mainly from 09-14z Wed). Pcpn should stay in the form of RA at the sern terminals. Pcpn ends from W to E from Wed AM- midday (at the latest). IFR CIGs improve to MVFR Wed AM before rising to VFR/scattering out by aftn.

OUTLOOK . High pressure builds into the area Wed night and Thursday, allowing VFR/dry conditions to return. Another area of low pressure brings rain and degraded flight conditions Friday through Saturday.

MARINE. As of 220 PM EST Tuesday .

Cold front will slowly cross the waters through this evening shifting winds from WSW to NW. Speeds avgg 10-20 kt prefrontal then some decrease w/ and shortly behind the front. Low level CAA kicks in by late this evening . through the overnight and Wed morning before waning Due to the CAA. speeds to increase to 15-25 kt . w/ 30 kt possible(for a brief period) over the lower Ches Bay and the ocean. Winds diminish Wed afternoon. A second surge of low level CAA expected Wed night (that does appear to be a bit weaker than the first one tonight) before sfc hi pres finally builds over the local waters. That sfc hi pres drifts off to the NE Thu-Thu night. Lo pres begins to develop INVOF Gulf of Mexico Fri then tracks NNE near the mid-Atlantic coast by Sat morning which may result in increased winds and deteriorating wx conditions over the waters heading into the weekend.

SCAs will be up for all of the waters except parts of the VA Rivers (though even those areas may have a brief period of near SCA conditions - winds gusting to 20 kt). SCAs to come down during Wed for the Ches Bay . sound and lower James River then will likely be needed again Wed night/early Thu. For the ocean . SCAs will be up into Thu morning (N) and through Thu afternoon (S) as seas will remain aoa 5 ft.

CLIMATE. Record highs for today (12/10).

RIC . 79 in 2007 ORF . 78 in 2007 SBY . 73 in 1966 ECG . 78 in 2007

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ632>634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630-631- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . ERI/MAM SHORT TERM . ERI/MPR LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . ERI MARINE . ALB CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi49 min WNW 2.9 51°F 1021 hPa50°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 45 mi49 min NNW 9.9 G 11 52°F 50°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA8 mi25 minWNW 87.00 miLight Rain49°F46°F93%1020.4 hPa
Chesterfield County Airport, VA12 mi23 minNW 74.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist46°F45°F96%1021.4 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA19 mi24 minNNW 63.00 miLight Drizzle47°F43°F89%1020.7 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA22 mi25 minNW 34.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F45°F89%1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRIC

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN43E4CalmW6CalmS4SW6SW5S6SW7S6S6S7S8S6S9S9S10S10S10S11SW15SW11
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N4NE4E4E85SE4E6SE5CalmE3SE5SE4CalmNE3N7N5

Tide / Current Tables for Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia
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Curles
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:01 AM EST     2.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:23 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:04 PM EST     2.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:25 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.92.32.52.31.81.20.60.2-0.1-00.41.32.22.832.82.41.71.10.60.2-0.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:31 AM EST     2.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:37 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:34 PM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:39 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.522.32.31.91.30.70.3-0-00.20.91.72.42.72.82.41.91.20.70.3-0-0.10.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.