NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) High confidence in pleasant weather with a few small showers/isolated storms for the Blue Ridge.

2) Near normal temperatures expected.

A trough of low pressure was moving through the area this morning, triggering a few small showers. Activity was gradually waning as the trough shifted east, with clouds still covering the piedmont, and the mountains more or less free of substantial cloud cover. Water vapor imagery showed fog/low stratus developing however in areas with clear skies. Expect fog to linger through 9 to 10 AM this morning until low level moisture can mix out after sunrise.

A few showers/isolated thunderstorms may pop up today, mainly over the southern Blue Ridge, where orographic lift and daytime heating will mix with low level moisture still arriving on easterly flow. These should be short-lived and non-severe, with dew points having dropped into the 50s and 60s behind this morning's trough, and ENE flow not being enough to compensate for that. Besides these small areas of convection, expect mostly to partly sunny skies and dry conditions.

Temperatures at 850mb will be around 15 to 17C, resulting in highs pretty close to normal. This means upper 70s to low 80s for the mountains, and mid to upper 80s for the piedmont.
Tonight, mountain valley fog is likely under high pressure with clear skies and calm winds. Lows will drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 415 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1). Unsettled weather conditions expected to continue through the period.

2). Very humid, but temperatures near to slightly below normal most areas.

While a broad upper ridge will remain the dominant feature for most of the 48 contiguous states, a series of subtle upper troughs creating a weakness in the upper ridge will remain over the eastern half of the U.S. through the period as they drop down from the Great Lakes. This will have two main impacts on our region through the period. First, it will enhance our chance of showers and thunderstorms to more than just diurnally driven activity, and second, the increased moisture and associated cloud cover along with shower/thunderstorm coverage will hold temperatures to near or even below normal levels thanks to the clouds, easterly flow much of the period, and precipitation.
The really hot weather will remain generally west of the Mississippi River.

Convective activity Sunday will be limited mainly to the mountains as forcing will be at its weakest. As the trough digs further into the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians during the first part of next week, shower/thunderstorm chances will be on the increase once again. The main concern with any convective activity will be rainfall with high PWATS greater than 1.50 much of the period. Localized flooding will be the main concern, although an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.

Muggy conditions will continue at night with areas of morning fog. Afternoons will be warm and humid, but not bad for late July at all.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction, - High Confidence in Wind Speed, - Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1). Persistent Weather Pattern with high humidity levels, warm but seasonal temperatures, and good to likely chances for showers/thunderstorms each day.

2). Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding main weather concern through the period.

Broad troughing will become anchored over the eastern U.S.
through the period despite an otherwise underlying mammoth upper-level ridge with modest height values in the 594-596dm range. Little if any change in the air mass expected leaving the region in a seasonably warm/slightly below normal temperature pattern with high humidity. The combination of these factors will lead to scattered to numerous afternoon/evening/early nighttime showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall and late night/early morning areas of dense fog. Temperatures will range mostly from the 60s/low 70s at night to the 80s in the daytime with a few 90s in the Piedmont. At least through the first half of the week temperatures will average near to slightly below normal.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Temperatures, - High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction, - High Confidence in Wind Speed, - High Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 225 AM EDT Saturday...

MVFR down to LIFR conditions possible this morning in ground fog/stratus, developing mainly in the mountains where skies have cleared this morning behind a passing trough. These should lift by 13-15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the valid TAF period, with occasional MVFR conditions possible in any small showers/storms that form over the Blue Ridge. Chances look quite slim at TAF sites, so TSRA have been omitted.

Fog development is likely again tonight, especially for the mountain terminals, as temperatures tumble towards dew point temperatures. Otherwise VFR prevails in high pressure.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

VFR conditions expected again Sunday, except for morning IFR/LIFR fog. Moisture returns late Sunday night and into early next week and afternoon showers/storms will be possible. VFR outside of any storms.

EQUIPMENT
As of 225 AM EDT Saturday..
The Blacksburg NWS office is experiencing a partial communication outage, and as such, some products may be briefly out of date.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.