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FXUS61 KRNK 111752 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1252 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry high pressure will cover the area through Friday. High temperatures will be below normal today but back above normal by Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1209 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- No weather issues except chilly temperatures through Tuesday morning

Look for upslope cloudiness to decrease through this evening with mainly clear skies overnight into Tuesday.

High pressure will be overhead tonight, and winds will decrease by dusk. Temperatures will bottom out in the 20s areawide with some teens in the mountains.

Warmer Tuesday as flow turns southwest behind the surface high with highs closer to normal in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Forecast confidence is high.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 1252 PM EST Monday...

Confidence is high for dry weather throughout this period.

Although an upper level trough should pass to the north across southeastern Canada during Tuesday night and Wednesday, dry air and surface high pressure in the Mid Atlantic should keep the weather tranquil. Temperatures will fall lower on Wednesday night in the wake of this upper level trough with teens and 20s.
The air mass should moderate a little by Thursday and Thursday night as the upper level flow becomes more zonal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1252 PM EST Monday...

Confidence is high for dry weather through Saturday, but confidence is low for the next chance of rain afterwards.

High pressure remains in control across the Mid Atlantic on Friday. Some upper level ridging will help to push temperatures a little higher during Friday afternoon. By Saturday, high pressure will head offshore but still keep conditions dry. The models continue to struggle with deciphering where a developing low pressure system along the Gulf Coast will go during Saturday night into Sunday. A 20-30 percent chance of rain exists for Sunday through Monday due to the uncertainty of how far north this moisture may spread from the low pressure system.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1212 PM EST Monday...

MVFR ceilings in the mountains this afternoon will clear out by 23Z. West-northwest winds stay gusty til 21-23Z, then decreasing winds overnight.

Look for VFR into Tuesday under high pressure.

High confidence for all aviation parameters.

OUTLOOK...

Looking at VFR through Saturday with no weather systems to impact our area.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

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Falling Creek entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:23 AM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:51 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:28 PM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:36 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:03 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Lower Rocketts
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:52 AM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:27 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:57 PM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:36 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:39 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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