Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pamplin City, VA

KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: Near-Record heat possible for the early part of the week as summer arrives. Heat wave lasts through Wednesday, with late week relief.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing in a cold front passage with a chance of rain for the region.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Near-Record heat possible for the early part of the week as summer arrives. Heat wave lasts through Wednesday, with late week relief.

A Bermuda High in the western Atlantic will continue to keep warm, southerly flow across the Eastern CONUS for the first half of the week. An upper-level ridge has also developed, which will limit convection and cause temperatures to soar.
Temperatures are noticeably warmer today, with widespread 80s along/east of the Blue Ridge already present at lunchtime.
Temperatures will continue to rise through late afternoon, with highs in the 80s for the mountains, and low 90s in the Piedmont.
Temperatures were lowered slightly due to the lingering cloud cover earlier this morning. This lowering will likely keep temperatures from reaching record highs today, though not by much. Monday and Tuesday look to have better chances of setting record highs, as the upper ridge builds, slightly pushing highs into the mid/upper 80s in the mountains, and mid 90s for the Piedmont. Despite the heat, it will remain dry, due to the upper ridge. While a stray storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon in the southern Blue Ridge, Monday looks to remain dry, with Tuesday also looking similar.

The next few days will be the first heat wave of the year, so be sure to drink plenty of water, limit outdoor activities, and wear light or loose fitting clothing to help reduce the risk of heat illness. The Piedmont could see highs of 90 degrees or higher for four straight days. The last time this occurred was in July of last year. With the recent cool weather over the past week or so, the intense heat may catch you off-guard.
Temperatures then lower behind a strong cold front, with 60s/70s for highs on Thursday/Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing in a cold front passage with a chance of rain for the region.

While much of the early portion of the work week will be dry and hot, a frontal boundary associated with an upper level trough will approach the region on Wednesday. With increasing moisture ahead of this front forecast, instability will likely be high enough to produce diurnal thunderstorm activity each day starting Wednesday. While much of the deep layer shear will progress east with the aforementioned upper level trough, enough shear on the order of 20-30 knots looks to be present on Wednesday when the front initially approaches the region. This will lead to the potential for some organized multicellular thunderstorm activity and likely a marginal severe weather threat by Wednesday. While the main forcing associated with the upper level trough looks to become dissociated from the frontal boundary as it progresses east through the Northeast, the frontal boundary looks to remain quasi-stationary across the Southeast through the end of the work week as it struggles to penetrate past an entrenched Bermuda surface high pressure system. This will lead to multiple days of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area through the end of the work week.

With the passage of the cold front, and daily shower and thunderstorm activity possible, temperatures will drop down to near climatological averages for this time of the year, with highs in the 70s/80s each day and lows in the 50s/60s each night.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions look to prevail at all terminals through the period; however, some IFR to LIFR VSBYs may impact LWB towards the early morning hours on Monday between 05-12 UTC. These restrictions would likely come from river valley fog that may develop during the early morning hours. Outside of these brief restrictions at LWB, VFR conditions are expected to remain at all terminals through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through the beginning of next week outside of any river valley fog that may develop. This river valley fog may lead to some brief periods of restrictions due to lowering VSBYs at LWB. More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week with the system possibly stalling across the area. This may lead to sub-VFR conditions through the end of the work week.

Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure.
Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF.

CLIMATE
Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the current records and our current forecast.

Monday, May 18, 2026

Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 94 in 1962 69 in 1996 92 Lynchburg 93 in 1911 68 in 1894 92 Danville 93 in 1974 69 in 2015 94 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 2015 86 Blacksburg 88 in 1911 61 in 2018 89

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 94 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 93 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 94 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 90

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.