Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pamplin City, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Chance of rain for Friday

Moisture advection this afternoon will lead to an increase chance of precipitation for the western portion of the area. A few hundred CAPE will permit some thunderstorm development but shear is generally too weak to sustain anything organized or long lasting.

A better chance of precipitation area wide will be on Friday (tomorrow) as a surface low pressure system approaches and will move the stationary front to our south northward as a warm front. The surface high pressure system over New England will also move toward the Atlantic to allow a smoother passage for the warm front. As the front passes, widespread precipitation chances increase. Similar to Thursday, there will be enough instability to permit generic thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts are still spread out but the largest rainfall totals are expected to be in along the southern Blue Ridge and the more mountainous areas of southwest VA and southeast WV.

Otherwise, conditions will be cloudy as the moisture rolls in for the rest of Thursday into Friday. Winds will be more southerly by Friday and highs for the region will be in the 60s and 70s with dew points in the mid 50s to mid 60s.



SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Moderate to high chances for light rain continues Friday night through Saturday night.

3) Warm and above normal weather continues.

Widespread light to moderate rain continues Friday evening with the approach of a southern stream short wave. As this wave crosses the area, it will push a cold front through on Saturday. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, especially Friday afternoon and evening.
Severe weather and flooding threats are very low. As far as rain amounts, the probability of getting more than a quarter of an inch Friday night through Sunday night is around 60% for the western mountains, southern Blue Ridge, southside VA, and SE WV, and less than 30% for our the VA piedmont.

High pressure builds in from the north by Sunday morning bringing an end to any rain. Light northerly winds, sunny skies, and much drier air develops for the end of the week. Temperatures will be above normal Friday and Saturday, but are knocked down some Sunday (especially for the piedmont) closer to normal values. Saturday looks quite warm in the piedmont ahead of the front in westerly flow, but will probably be slightly cooler than what guidance has, given expected cloud cover and rain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Moderate confidence in higher chances for rain during the midweek period.

2) Temperatures remain on the warm side.

Southerly winds, sunny skies, and slightly warmer temperatures return Monday. Ridging becomes even more amplified Tuesday, and temperatures respond with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Our slightly warmer urban areas will approach the upper 80s.

Ridging decreases some for the midweek period as short wave energy passes by to our north and a weak front sinks into the region. The front will help bring increasing clouds as well as some scattered showers and isolated storms to the area, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. By Thursday, a more organized system ejects from the southern Plains and interacts with the boundary, and we will see more widespread showers and storms.



AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions for the start of the forecast period before deteriorating to at least MVFR early Friday morning around sunrise.
A warm front will arrive on Friday to bring widespread precipitation and low level clouds to all terminals. Moisture advection today (Thursday) may result in some showers for KBLF, but the greatest chance of any precipitation for all terminals will be Friday afternoon. Local heavy rainfall and lightning are risks associated with these storms. While severe weather is not anticipated, low level clouds will bring sub-VFR conditions to all terminals with KROA, KLYH, BLF, and KBCB forecast to reach IFR conditions due to ceilings less than 1000 ft.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

A cold front will continue the rainfall chances on Saturday and another day for sub-VFR conditions for all terminals. A large surface high pressure system is set to take over the eastern CONUS once the cold front passes early next week to return all airports to VFR.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.