Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Point, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sunny today with lighter winds and highs near 70.

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered over West VA, and providing the CWA with a clear sky and very cool temps.
Temps were ranging through the 40s across most of the area, and in the 50s to near 60 near the Bay/coast.

The high will build down into and over the area today into this evening. After a very cool morning, expect a sunny sky with highs climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Above normal temperatures expected for Saturday and Sunday with dry conditions continuing.

The center of the high will be WSW of the CWA for tonight. Under a clear sky, low temps will range through the 40s into the 50s with a very light SW wind. The center of the high will shift to our S and then just offshore during Sat. Under a sunny or mostly sunny sky, a SW or W wind of 5-10 mph will help boost high temps into the mid to upper 70s. Clear or mostly clear Sat night with low temps closer to normals for this time of year, in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A vigorous trough will then deepen over the Great Lakes Sun through Sun night. Sfc high pressure will slide farther out to sea Sun into Sun night, as a strong cold front approaches from the WNW. Stronger SSW winds well in advance of the front during Sun, will help high temps climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s under a mostly sunny sky. The cold front will continue to approach from the WNW Sun night, then push into Wcntrl areas by early Mon morning. Becoming partly cloudy with lows Sun night in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front moves through the area Monday.

- Primarily dry conditions continue into middle of next week.

A strong cold front will move through the area Monday as models show the upper trough 500mb anomalies reach minus 2 to minus 3 st dev by Tues with stronger anomalies possible mid week. This will push a strong cold front through the area Mon, which will likely be followed by the coolest airmass of the season. Mon highs will be in the mid to upper 60s in the NW of the region to upper 70s across the SE of the region but will depend on the timing of the front. Mon night's low will be in the mid 40s. Tues will be much cooler with highs in the low 60s and similar to tonight's in the upper 30s to low 40s. Tues will have the most cloud cover for the extended forecast with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies (in the SE of the region). By Wed, 12z/10 GFS has a strong 500mb cut-off low with anomalies around minus 5 in south GA. Confidence for this is low as the 12z/10 ECMWF pushes the trough off the coast by Wed. Cooler fall like temps similar to Tues with a slight warming trend will continue through Wed and Thurs. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail through the medium range forecast. The only exception may be the cold frontal passage Mon, but the confidence remains low as PW anomalies only barely reach above normal.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions with a clear sky (SKC) will prevail at the TAF sites from this morning into Sat morning, as high pressure builds down into and over the region. North winds will be generally light overnight, though will likely still see a few gusts around 15-20kt at ORF through this morning. Winds turn to the W then SW while becoming light later today into tonight.

VFR and dry conditions will continue Sat through Sun, as high pressure settles offshore and out to sea. A strong, but mainly dry cold front crosses the region Mon, with VFR conditions continuing.

MARINE
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

Key Points:

- Small Craft Advisories run through later this morning on the bay and coastal waters. Winds gradually diminish this morning through tonight.

- More benign boating conditions to start off the weekend. However, another round of Small Craft Advisories are likely with the next cold frontal passage late in the weekend into the start of next week.

Latest surface analysis reveals strong ~1026mb high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes. The post-tropical remnants of Tropical Cyclone Milton was analyzed SSW of Bermuda early this morning, with the pressure gradient between these two features resulting in a surge of northerly winds, which is slowly weakening as of this writing. Latest Obs and buoy reports reveal NNE winds 15- 20 kt in the bay and over the Atlantic coastal waters, with slightly lower winds averaging 10-15 kt in the rivers. Seas averaged 4-5 ft, with waves 2-3 ft across the bay and 1-2 ft rivers and sound.

SCA remains in place through later this morning over the bay, but should be able to be lowered shortly with winds trending lower by mid-late morning, as the pressure gradient slackens. SCA will be lowered last for the southern coastal waters, where seas will linger around 5 ft through around midday before subsiding. Winds become W to SW this afternoon and tonight, diminishing to 10-15 kt as the gradient slackens further through tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure builds in west of the waters. Seas remain 10-15 kt Sat into Sun morning. The next cold front approaches the waters from the NW on Sunday, with winds increasing pre-frontal Sunday afternoon and evening out of the SSW. Small Craft conditions appear likely Sunday night into Monday for all but the upper rivers ahead of the frontal passage, which crosses into the area Monday morning. SSW winds increase to 15-20 kt late Sunday and Sunday night with gusts to ~25 kt (highest upper bay zones north of Windmill Pt) and seas around 4- 6 ft. The front pushes south of the area Monday evening, with winds briefly subsiding. However, another surge of northerly winds and potential SCA is possible midweek (Tue night through Wed night), as the parent (full latitude) trough crosses the area, with chilly high pressure building in for the late week period.

High rip currents across the southern beaches and moderate rip currents for the northern beaches remain in effect today, moderate Rip all beaches tomorrow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630- 631-633.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632- 634-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.