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ANZ636 York River- 1249 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.gale watch in effect from late Sunday night through Monday morning...
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft, increasing to around 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft, increasing to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of tstms in the evening. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 1249 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure remains off the southeast coast into this weekend. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Saturday, and is expected to impact the waters Sunday through Monday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 081753 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1253 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move east of the local area on Friday and Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region Sunday into early Monday morning. High pressure builds back into the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1210 PM EST Friday...

High pressure is centered from the Carolina to Mid-Atlantic coast this aftn, with light winds and temperatures in the 50s across the local area. Skies are partly cloudy due to high clouds. Dry/seasonable wx continues tonight. Some clearing is likely during the evening before high clouds move back in (especially S) during the latter part of the night. Forecast lows are generally in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

Remaining dry and mild on Saturday as sfc high pressure expands to the N and becomes centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The upper-level ridge axis also moves off the coast in response to a potent upper level trough extending from the northern Plains SW into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern plains Friday night and will lift E-NE along a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio River Valley. Low temperatures Friday night will range from the low/mid 30s NW to the low 40s across the S/SE. Saturday is shaping up to be a nice day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s N to the upper 60s S. Clouds will be on the increase out ahead of the approaching system Sat night and it will be much warmer with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A strong cold front will approach from the west on Sunday and move across the area Sunday evening and/or Sunday night. There will be a strong southerly flow ahead of the front on Sunday.
Winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph Sunday afternoon and evening. This will bring warm and moist air north into the area. Dew points will be climbing into the mid 60s and PW values will surge to 1.50"+ on Sunday. This will allow for the potential for heavy rain. QPF for the area is for a widespread 1.50-3.00". Rain chances increase early Sunday morning with mainly light passing showers. Rain will likely be on and off through Sunday afternoon with the bulk of the rain coming through late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Pops are ~100% area-wide. WPC has the entire region highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Therefore, there will be the potential for, at least, some localized flooding, especially in flood-prone and urban areas. In additions, there is also a potential for localized strong to severe storms. SPC has now placed most of the local area, for the exception of the MD Eastern Shore, in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. If there is enough sfc heating, with temperatures warming to around 70F, and instability on Sunday, some storms may produce a brief tornado and/or sporadic damaging wind gusts.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

Rain should come to an end quickly in the wake of the front late Sunday night into Monday morning, as high pressure builds back into the region. Becoming gusty behind the front on Monday with strong pressure rises and much cooler/drier air. Highs only in the 50s. Winds ease Monday night and Tuesday, with dry conditions and cooler temperatures to prevail through the middle of the week. Looks like conditions remain dry through at least Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1210 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/08 TAF period. Skies will remain clear outside of high cloud cover (20-25kft AGL). Light SE winds are expected this afternoon. Winds become SSW at 5-10 kt on Saturday.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions prevail through Saturday. A strong cold front approaches from the west on Sunday, and crosses the terminals from Sunday evening-early Mon AM. Showers (and perhaps a few tstms) are likely during the day on Sunday, with widespread showers and a few tstms expected Sunday evening- Sunday night as the front comes through. Precipitation will linger for a few hours following the FROPA (likely into early Mon AM). Sub-VFR conditions are likely from late Sun-early Mon AM. In addition, gusty S winds to 25-35 kt are likely ahead of the front, with gusty NW winds behind it. There could be a brief (~2 hour) period of 40 kt gusts immediately following the FROPA.
In addition, convection along/just ahead of the front could bring very brief 40-50 kt wind gusts to the terminals. VFR/dry on Mon with rapidly clearing skies. Breezy conditions continue on Monday with W-NW winds.

MARINE
As of 1255 PM EST Friday...

Gale Watches are now in effect for all local waters Sun night for NW winds 20-30 kt with gusts 35-40 kt (except 40-45 kt across the coastal waters).

Previous Discussion

Expecting benign boating conditions today as winds become southerly 5-10 kt then southeasterly ~10 kt by this evening. Winds remain out of the south on Saturday, becoming SSW 10-15 kt into the overnight hours as low pressure and a strong cold front move eastward across the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow steadily increases on Sunday as the pressure gradient steepens ahead of the cold front. 00z guidance is in relatively good agreement showing initial low pressure occluding NW of the local area as secondary cyclogenesis develops across the higher terrain to our west. As this second low deepens, southerly flow increases to 25-35 kt with gusts 35 to 40 kt Sunday evening. Guidance continues to show an impressive pressure fall/rise couplet as the low moves through the region with winds turning NW by early Monday morning. Gusts along and behind the cold front are potentially the strongest of the event as the low continues to deepen, bringing cold/dry air and deeper mixing over the waters. Some timing and magnitude differences continue on the models but a period of gale conditions is likely starting early Sunday evening and lasting into Monday. Gale Watches are warranted over the next 1 or 2 forecast cycles as confidence in the finer details increases. Seas build 4-6 ft Sunday afternoon and increase to 6-8 ft S and 7-10 ft N by early Monday morning. Waves in the Ches Bay build to 2-4 ft Sunday afternoon and further to 3-5 ft (locally up to 6 ft near the mouth of the bay) early Monday. Thereafter, high pressure builds into the region with a period of SCA conditions likely following the gales as winds/waves/seas begin to decrease on Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ630.
Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ631-632-634-638.
Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ633-635>637.
Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for ANZ650-652.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ654-656-658.

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Roane Point
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Fri -- 12:32 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:22 PM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:07 PM EST     2.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Roane Point, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

Allmondsville
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Fri -- 02:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:12 AM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:39 PM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:23 PM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Allmondsville, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

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