Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Point, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:35PM Friday April 3, 2020 5:57 AM EDT (09:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:23PMMoonset 3:11AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 436 Am Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Through 7 am..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 436 Am Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure meanders well offshore of the waters through Saturday. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest from today through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Point, VA
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location: 37.44, -76.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 030821 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 421 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure off the New England coast pivots toward the Delmarva Peninsula today before turning to the southeast and away from the local area tonight. The low will push farther east Saturday as high pressure builds over the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 350 AM EDT Friday .

Early morning weather analysis shows a large area of vertically stacked low pressure located approximately 200 miles ESE of Cape Cod slowly retrograding to the SW. A high amplitude upper ridge was centered from the MS River Valley to Ontario, with a deep upper trough to the west of the strong ridge. Skies are still clear across the area, but an expansive area of BKN-OVC clouds on the back side of the low was slowly approaching the Lower Ern Shore from the NE. Temperatures range from the mid 40s W to around 50F near the coast. The low is progged to continue slowly tracking SW through the first part of the day before turning more to the S, moving to a position 200-300 miles E of the Delmarva Peninsula by evening. Cloud cover will overspread the area from NE-SW today. Skies will become mainly cloudy over the VA Nrn Neck/Ern Shore by late aftn, with mainly clear skies over the SW third of the CWA. Increasing clouds over the east and northeast will keep temperatures in check with a slight chance for a stray shower or two from CGE-OXB after 18z/2 PM as the low makes its closest approach to the coast. Highs will range from the mid-upper 50s over the Ern Shore to the upper 60s-around 70F from I-95 west. Winds will be gusty once again today with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts in the 25-35 mph range. Given low dew points and warming afternoon temps, relative humidity values are expected to fall to ~20% from I-95 westward during the afternoon (and across interior NE NC). Despite recent rainfall and an early Spring green-up, fuel moisture values fell to ~7% at area RAWS sites in Caroline/Bertie County yesterday. Therefore, will go with an SPS for approximately the western two-thirds of VA counties in addition to a few counties in NE NC. This was done after collaboration with neighboring offices.

The low slowly pulls SE and away from the area tonight. Skies will be partly-mostly clear W/mostly cloudy E. Cannot rule out a stray shower over the MD Ern Shore through early Sat AM before pcpn chances end. Lows fall into the low to mid 40s tonight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 350 AM EDT Friday .

The offshore low finally pulls away this weekend while weak high pressure builds in from the NW before becoming centered over the FA by late Saturday night. The high slowly pushes offshore from Sunday through Sunday night as a very weak shortwave aloft tracks toward the area from the WNW. Will maintain a dry forecast through the weekend while adding a slight chc (~20%) of showers across most of the area Sunday night. PoPs are not high enough to put any QPF in the forecast. Temperatures will remain around average through the weekend, with partly-mostly cloudy skies expected each day. Highs Saturday range from the mid 50s on the Ern Shore to the low-mid 60s elsewhere. Slightly warmer on Sun with highs in the low-mid 60s near the coast/upper 60s- near 70F inland. Lows on both Sat night/Sun night will mainly be in the 40s (although Sun night will be a bit warmer with the high offshore).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

High pressure slips south/offshore of the region by Sunday night with weak S to SW flow taking hold into early Monday. A weak cold front slides south through the region during the day on Monday before stalling near the area. The front then lifts back north of the region Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front. Chances for rain showers will be possible Monday into Wednesday with the front lingering in the area and a series of low amplitude waves in the NW flow aloft traverse the region. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 70s Monday through Wednesday with cooler temperatures at the coast(mid 60s to lower 70s). Low temperatures generally range from the upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday night through Wednesday night. By late Wednesday into Thursday, a cold front potentially approaches from the NW and crosses the region. As a result, have kept slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast into Thursday.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 135 AM EDT Friday .

SKC conditions prevail at the terminals early this morning, with low pressure offshore of the New England coast slowly retrograding to the SW. A band of clouds (mainly VFR) on the back side of the low is slowly approaching the Lower Ern Shore from the NE. NW winds have temporarily diminished to ~10 kt, but will become gusty again late this morning through the day today. Expect gusts to ~25 kt inland/25-30 kt closer to the coast. Winds will turn more to the N-NNW and diminish to ~10 kt tonight (but may occasionally gust to 15-20 kt near the coast). Skies will remain clear at all of the terminals through at least mid morning. However, the aforementioned band of clouds will overspread the NE half of the CWA during the day (from NE- SW). Expect CIGs to become BKN at SBY (~5000-6000 ft) by midday, with SCT-BKN VFR CIGs moving into RIC/ORF/PHF by late aftn. ECG should remain mainly clear through 00z Sat. CIGs will likely lower to (high-end) MVFR at SBY by mid-late aftn, while VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the other terminals through the 06z TAF period. There is a slight chc of a light shower or two at SBY from this aftn-tonight, but no operational impacts are expected from any pcpn.

Outlook . VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend as high pressure remains in control Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE. As of 400 AM EDT Friday .

Strong low pressure currently is centered off the coast of southern New England, and is forecast to slowly push S to SW today, becoming centered east of the Mid- Atlantic coast by late this aftn and evening. The pressure gradient will tighten over the southern Mid- Atlantic as the low tracks southwest and the high pressure builds east. Winds thus far have been slower to increase than what the models have been predicting, but do anticipate the winds to increase over the next few hrs. Seas are currently 4-5 ft but will build later today. Strongest winds are expected to be across the northern coastal waters late this morning where some gusts to 35 kt will be possible. at this time, the duration looks too short to raise Gale headlines but did mention the potential for occasional gusts in the MWW. Elsewhere, gusts will generally be around 30 kt, peaking late this morning into the early aftn. Waves in the bay are expected to be 3-5 ft, 2-3 ft in the rivers, and seas in the ocean are expected to be building to 5-8 ft.

The low pressure will track southeast as the high pressure moves into northern Mid-Atlantic later tonight. Winds will become north and may drop off for a few hrs towards sunset, before increasing again with a secondary surge of colder air during the 02-06Z timeframe. With this in mind, have extended the SCAs for the rivers to cover this additional surge. N ~20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt. High pressure will build south into our area by Saturday aftn allowing for winds to drop below SCA criteria, NE 5-10 kt across the bay and NE 10-15 kt across the ocean coastal waters. However, SCAs have been extended through the 4th period for lingering seas on the coastal waters (and fro 4ft waves into the mouth of the Bay). Large swell will reach the east coast Saturday and High Surf advisories may be needed, especially from Va Beach to NC Outer banks. Seas Saturday are expected to be 7-9 ft N and 8-10 ft S.

FIRE WEATHER. As of 350 AM EDT Friday .

Continued dry and breezy over the region today. Min RH values are expected to drop to ~20% from I-95 westward along with a ~15 mph NW wind with gusts to ~25 mph. Early green-up will likely be a limiting factor to any fire weather concerns Friday. More cloud cover east of I-95/N of I-64 will result in higher min RH values (25-40% for most areas E of the I-95 corridor to 40-50% toward the coast). After collaboration with neighboring offices, went ahead and issued an SPS for increased fire danger for the counties in VA that are along and west of the I-95 corridor, with a couple additional counties in interior SE VA. In NC, went with an SPS from Bertie/Chowan westward. Although sustained wind speeds look to be borderline, RH values will be below SPS criteria with fuel moisture meeting criteria as well (based on the fact that RAWS sites in Caroline/Bertie Counties reported fuel moisture values of 7% yesterday aftn).

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 400 AM EDT Friday .

Decent N-NW winds/a few more ebb tides will allow anomalies in the bay to remain relatively low, and no coastal flooding is expected through today/tonight. However, increasing swell on Sat, (perhaps 7-9 ft) coupled w/ winds slowly diminishing and shifting more to the NE will likely allow water to again pile up in the bay, resulting in an increase in tidal anomalies. Minor tidal flooding appears likely in many areas adjacent to the Ches Bay (and also Atlantic Ocean) as early as the Sat morning high tide cycle and potentially lingering into Sunday morning. With lighter winds than the event from a few days ago, would think that the best potential for moderate flooding will be into the mid/upper Bay by Sunday as a few successive flood tides are likely to dominate at the the mouth of the Ches Bay allowing water that initially piles up in the lower Bay to be forced to spread N (as ebb tides will be minimal). Confidence is still too low for a Coastal Flood Watch but this will need to be monitored across portions of the mid/upper Bay.

High Surf Advisories may be needed Sat, most likely from Va Beach to NC Outer Banks, but can't rule it out farther N as well.

CLIMATE. March 2020 temperature ranks:

4th warmest at RIC (54.8F), #1 1945 (58.5F) 4th warmest at ORF (57.0F), #1 1945 (59.5F) 8th warmest at SBY (50.7F), #1 1945 (56.2F) 4th warmest at ECG (58.0F), #1 1945 (61.5F)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/RHR NEAR TERM . ERI SHORT TERM . ERI/RHR LONG TERM . ALB AVIATION . CMF/ERI MARINE . CP/LKB FIRE WEATHER . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 2 mi88 min WNW 5.1 50°F 1010 hPa25°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 20 mi64 min NW 17 G 23 54°F 55°F1008.9 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 25 mi64 min NW 17 G 20 52°F 1009.8 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 27 mi40 min SW 19 G 21 53°F1012.2 hPa
44072 30 mi48 min NNE 16 G 19 52°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 37 mi64 min NNW 16 G 22 54°F 1009.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 39 mi64 min WNW 22 G 29 1008.9 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 39 mi64 min NW 15 G 19 53°F 1009.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 41 mi64 min NW 19 G 23 52°F 53°F1008.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 41 mi64 min 55°F1009.5 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 44 mi64 min NNW 12 G 15 53°F 1009.3 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 44 mi64 min NW 20 G 23 52°F
CHBV2 45 mi64 min NW 25 G 28 53°F 1007.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi40 min WNW 21 G 25 51°F 53°F1008 hPa
44064 46 mi48 min NNW 23 G 29 1008.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi64 min NNW 23 G 26

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA6 mi63 minWNW 610.00 miFair49°F27°F43%1010.2 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA14 mi63 minWNW 5 miFair48°F30°F50%1010.2 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA22 mi62 minNW 810.00 miFair51°F30°F46%1009.4 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA24 mi64 minNW 11 G 1810.00 miFair52°F24°F34%1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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NW4NW6NW5CalmCalmCalmW5W5W5W5NW7NW5Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Roane Point, York River, Virginia
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Roane Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.611.72.32.72.92.92.521.40.80.50.40.61.11.72.22.62.62.41.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for Allmondsville, York River, Virginia
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Allmondsville
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:04 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:28 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:05 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:59 PM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.91.52.12.7332.72.21.610.60.40.50.91.52.12.52.72.52.11.50.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.