Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Point, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday February 20, 2020 6:17 PM EST (23:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:12AMMoonset 3:04PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 247 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight est tonight through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely early this afternoon. Snow likely early this afternoon, then a chance of snow after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..W winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely.
Tue night..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 247 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure off the carolina coast tonight before moving away from the area overnight. High pressure builds in Friday through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Point, VA
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location: 37.44, -76.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 202040 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 340 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure moves off the Carolina coast tonight. High pressure returns for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 335 PM EST Thursday .

Erosion of the low level dry air occurring now and lgt mixed pcpn has made across most of srn VA into NE NC. The HRRR from Wed morning nailed it (temperatures rising into the 40s . and period of RA or mixed RA/SN this afternoon). The transition from mixed RA/SN to SN will be occurring through early/mid this evening. Beginning to see W-E banding on radar and w/ 800-700mb frontogenesis expected to push across srn/SE VA and NE NC . mdt to hvy SN is expected. Have made no changes to headlines attm . and only minor adjustments to SN accums (after WPC/WFO coord). Highest totals expected over interior SE VA and into most of NE NC (excluding the Outer Banks/in VA along the bay/ocean). Will likely lose some accum due to melting (temperatures above freezing/warm ground). Intensity of pcpn expected to pick up this evening and have used the model Kuchera SLR over standard 10:0 SLR to aid in accum fcst. Dry air will hang on across the nrn 1/3rd but kept flurries or SLGT CHC -SN those areas w/ little or no accum.

Lo pres will be strengthening off the SE CONUS tonight. Becoming windy . NNE winds to gust to 30-40 mph at the immediate coast. SN will taper off WNW to ESE after midnight and partial clearing will begin. Temperatures falling to or just blo freezing this evening . then lows tonight 20-25 central/W and NE to the u20s- around 30F far SE.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 115 PM EST Thursday .

Any pcpn over far SE VA-coastal NE NC quickly ends early Fri morning Otw. hi pres and clearing out for Fri . though cold w/ highs in the u30s-l40s (l-m30s over areas that have SN cover). N winds remaining breezy at the coast. After a chilly night Fri night w/ the center of sfc hi pres arriving late . Sat will be dry w/ more seasonable conditions. Lows Fri night from the l-m20s inland to the u20s-around 30F at the coast. Highs Sat in the u40s-l50s.

Sfc hi pres remains near or just SE of the local area Sat night through Sun as the next storm system begins to take shape INVOF central Plains. Winds turn SSW leading to continued moderation w/ little clouds. SKC Sat night w/ near calm conditions. Lows in the m-u20s inland to the l30s right along the immediate coast in ern/SE VA and coastal NE NC. Mostly sunny and mild Sun w/ highs mainly 55-60F . though cooler along the bay/ocean.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 255 PM EDT Thursday .

Low pressure tracks NE through the Ohio Valley late Monday into Tuesday. The trailing cold front will result in scattered rain showers with PoPs increasing to 60-75% by Tuesday. This system will be followed by stronger low developing Wednesday/Thursday along a deep trough moving into the region. This system is developing in a much stronger kinematic environment but current model consensus is that the low will track inland, and therefore it is expected bring only rain into the CWA Wednesday into early Thursday. High pressure moves in Thursday.

Low temps Sun night will range from the low 30s in the piedmont to the upper 30s along the coast. Low temps Mon and Tues nights will range from the low 40s in the NW to the upper 40s to low 50s in the SE. Low temps Wed night will range from the mid 30s in the NW to the low 40s in the SE. Low temps on Thurs night will be the coldest of the long term period with mid-20s in the NW and low 30s in the SE. High temps Mon will range from the mid-50s in the NW to around 60F in the SE. High temps Tues and Wed will range from the upper 50s in the NW to the mid-60s in the SE. High temps on Thurs will range from the upper 40s in the NW to the mid-50s in the SE.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 105 PM EST THURSDAY .

Current VFR conditions will continue until around 21z when rain begins to move into RIC/ORF/PHF/ECG and CIGs lower to MVFR levels. VFR conditions are expected to continue at SBY through the 18z TAF period. Rain is expected to transition to snow around 22z at RIC and around 23z- 00z at ORF/PHF/ECG. After 00z IFR conditions due to CIGs and visibilities (and LIFR conditions due to visibilities in bands of heavier snow) are expected in SE terminals (ORF/PHF/ECG). Expect the snow to tapper off from NW to SE overnight into early Friday morning with snow ending around 09z- 10z Friday at PHF/ORF and by around 12z at ECG. Winds are currently NE/ENE at 5-10 kt but are expected to strengthen after 00z Friday and continue to strengthen through the day. Expect winds of 10-15 kt by early Friday at RIC/SBY, 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt at PHF, and 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt at ORF/ECG.

OUTLOOK . VFR conditions return Fri thru Sun as high pressure returns. Light showers and possible flight restrictions will be possible on Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region.

MARINE. As of 250 PM EST Thursday .

Winds are N/NE 5-15 kts this afternoon as a weak high sits over the northeast and low pressure is off the SE coast. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft and seas 3-5 ft. Wind speeds will increase this evening as the low moves closer to the region off the Carolina coast and a strong 1044 mb high builds in over the center of the country, resulting in a tightening of the pressure gradient across area waters. Winds overnight and Friday morning will be 20-30 kts with gusts up to 40 kts for Currituck Sound and the southern coastal waters south of Cape Charles. Waves/Seas will also start building tonight and by Friday morning and early afternoon expect 2-4 ft waves in the bay with around 5 ft at the mouth of the bay, and seas 5-9 ft with the highest seas over the southern coastal waters.

Only minor timing adjustments to the headlines. Moved the start time for the Gale warning for Currituck sound up to 00Z tonight, and extended the SCA for the lower bay and coastal waters off the lower VA eastern shore out a few hours. Currently, the Gale Warnings for Currituck Sound and southern coastal waters go from 00Z tonight until 21Z Friday, with SCA's likely needed for at least the southern coastal waters beyond 21Z for lingering seas. The SCA for the lower bay goes from 00Z tonight until 00Z Saturday, and 03Z to 21Z for the upper bay. The SCA for the rivers goes from 05Z to 18Z Saturday, and 03Z to 21Z Saturday for the lower James. Finally, the SCA for the northern coastal waters starts at 03Z and goes until 03Z Saturday for zones ANZ650/652 and 06Z Saturday for zone ANZ654.

Winds will begin to subside late Friday morning as the low moves away from the area and high pressure shifts over to the OH valley. By late Friday evening the bay should fall below SCA criteria. Conditions improve for the weekend as high pressure remains in control, however SCA's for lingering high seas will likely remain for the coastal waters through Saturday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NCZ012>017- 030>032. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for NCZ102. VA . Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for VAZ087>090-092- 093-095>098-523>525. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for VAZ065>068- 078>086-099-100-512>516-518-520. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ654. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ633-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ630-631-638.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . ALB SHORT TERM . ALB LONG TERM . ALB AVIATION . RMM MARINE . JDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 2 mi47 min NE 2.9 34°F 1030 hPa28°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 20 mi47 min NE 8 G 9.9 34°F 47°F1028 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 25 mi47 min NE 11 G 12 35°F 1028.9 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 27 mi47 min N 9.7 G 12 46°F1033.1 hPa
44072 30 mi27 min ESE 12 G 14 35°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 37 mi47 min NE 2.9 G 6 34°F 1028.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 39 mi47 min NNE 13 G 16 1029.7 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 39 mi47 min NNE 16 G 19 1027.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 41 mi47 min N 2.9 G 5.1 1028.9 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 41 mi47 min 1027.8 hPa
44087 42 mi17 min 45°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 44 mi47 min NNE 6 G 7
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 44 mi47 min NNE 12 G 15 36°F 1027.5 hPa
CHBV2 45 mi53 min NE 15 G 17 35°F 1026.6 hPa
44064 46 mi27 min NE 16 G 19 1027.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi23 min NNW 7.8 G 14 37°F 44°F1029.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi47 min NE 2.9 G 4.1

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA6 mi22 minNE 54.00 miPartly Cloudy33°F28°F85%1030.1 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA14 mi22 minN 01.25 miOvercast34°F33°F100%1029.5 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA22 mi81 minVar 30.50 miLight Snow33°F30°F90%1028.1 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA24 mi23 minN 41.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist34°F30°F85%1028.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E6NE4NE3E3NE4N3Calm
1 day agoS4S5S7SW7SW6SW4CalmCalmN3CalmN10
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N5CalmCalmNW4N6N8N6NW5NW3NW3NW3Calm
2 days agoNE3CalmCalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4SW9SW7S6S4S5

Tide / Current Tables for Roane Point, York River, Virginia
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Roane Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:12 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:44 AM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:04 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:10 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.1-0.1-00.411.72.32.72.82.62.11.40.70.200.10.51.11.72.22.32.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Allmondsville, York River, Virginia
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Allmondsville
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:29 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:01 AM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:27 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:04 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:16 PM EST     2.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.1-0.10.30.91.62.22.72.92.72.31.60.90.400.10.411.62.12.32.31.91.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.