Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 9:41 AM   Moonset 12:08 AM

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ANZ636 York River- 307 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Through 7 pm - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Tue night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 307 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure shifts offshore today. A low pressure system crosses the area from Tuesday through early Wednesday, bringing the potential for a period of elevated south winds.

FXUS61 KAKQ 131606 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1206 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry and warmer today before another round of showers and storms returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm with additional showers and storms Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1205 PM EDT Monday...

-Key Messages:

- Warmer and dry today.

- Clouds increase gradually late this afternoon and thicken this evening with precip chances ramping up after midnight.

No significant changes at midday, with the forecast largely on track. Increasing mid to high clouds across the I-85 corridor across our SW tier of counties this afternoon. Otherwise, a pleasant afternoon on the way for the local area with high pressure in place along the lower mid-Atlantic coast.

High temperatures mostly in the upper 70s with low/mid 70s near the coast. Once again, areas along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore will be cooler with highs in the mid and upper 60s.

Dry to start tonight, with increasing clouds as PWs slowly ratchet up and WAA aloft ensues. Rain chances increase rapidly across the SW half of the area after midnight as high pressure translates farther offshore and better slug of overrunning moisture arrives. Early morning lows will be mild in the upper 50s to low 60s with increasing clouds and low-level moisture.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

-Key Messages:

-Next system moves in Tuesday with showers and a few thunderstorms.
Widespread severe weather is not expected.

-Showers and thunderstorms linger on Wednesday before moving offshore overnight.

PoPs increase from west to east Tuesday morning, spreading to the coast by mid to late afternoon. Weak kinematics and instability argue for little in the way of thunder for most of Tuesday. However, will maintain a thunder chance through the afternoon on Tuesday over SW sections and along the SE coast into later Tuesday evening. Highs may not get out of the 60s across portions of the Piedmont while areas to the east see temps in the low to mid 70s. QPF through Tue night between 3/4" and 1" of additional rainfall, with locally higher totals possible. Best chances for periods of locally heavy rainfall will be across south central and southeast VA into northeast NC Tue night, where secondary low pressure looks to develop Tuesday aftn, lifting a warm front across the region Tuesday evening.

Rain briefly tapers off early Wednesday morning, especially across the S/SE, as mid-levels briefly dry out. However, we never really dry out lower levels through this period. This argues for continued overcast/substantial cloud cover and light rain throughout Wednesday, as the closed low to the west opens up and the surface reflection weakens as it crosses the central/southern Appalachians.
Precipitation character remains a bit more stratiform through the day for most. However, chances for storms do increase a bit over NE NC and perhaps into Hampton Roads by afternoon as the weakening upper low approaches. This allows for a period of increased deep- layer shear (25-35 kt) along with some decent instability.

As high pressure builds to the north, the weakening surface low crosses the area Wed night. Given this timing, Wednesday night would then feature diminishing rain chances and drier air filtering into the region. Kept highs in the 70s for much of the area on Wednesday, with some lower 80s across the SE coast. Lows Wed night in the 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

-Key Messages:

-Continued warm late this week with increasing chances for showers and storms later Friday into the weekend.

High pressure builds in very briefly on Thursday with low pressure lingering offshore. Warm with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers and storms. Another system approaches on Friday with another chance for scattered showers and storms. 00z guidance has trended weaker with this system and significant timing differences remain among the global models.
Have chance PoPs with thunder across the area on Saturday given the slower timing noted on the latest GFS and Canadian runs.

High temps generally in the 70s to low 80s Friday through Sunday.
Overnight lows continue around 60 degrees.

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1205 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for 18z TAF period. Winds ~10 kt out of the SSE near the coast and generally S 5-10 kt inland. Mostly sunny/SKC this afternoon, with increasing high clouds through the evening. Showers will also return late tonight/early Tuesday but should remain west of the main terminals through 12z Tuesday.

Outlook: Low pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday bringing showers, periodic flight restrictions, and possibly a few tstms.
Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

-SCAs have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this evening through early Tuesday morning for a brief period of elevated S to SE winds.

-Additional SCAs are likely ahead of a low pressure system Monday Tuesday into Wednesday morning

High pressure is centered near the waters early this morning with light E winds and ~3ft. The high gradually shifts offshore today, and winds then increase out of the S-SE (to ~15kt by late aftn) as the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of the high.
Confidence in seeing a brief period of low-end SCA conditions on the bay has increased this evening-early Tue AM, and local wind probs now show a 70-90% chc of sustained 18kt winds between 6 PM today-2 AM Tue. Went ahead and issued SCAs for the bay that is in effect from 6 PM through 1-4 AM.

S winds briefly diminish to 10-15kt Tuesday AM. However, a low pressure system will approach the area on Tuesday before crossing the area from west to east late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. The pressure gradient will increase ahead of the system by Tue aftn/evening, allowing S winds to increase to around 20kt (and remain elevated through most of Tue night). Local wind probs continue to show an 80-100% chc of 18kt winds on the bay Tue night.
Wind gusts are expected to be right around the 25kt threshold on the ocean (and local wind probs for 25kt gusts are only 30-60% for a few hrs Tue night), but seas should build to 5ft by Tue night.
Therefore, SCAs appear likely for the bay and ocean (and perhaps the Lower James/Currituck Sound) with this system. Sub-SCA conditions are expected behind the system Wed night-Thursday (w/ N-NE winds near 15kt and seas subsiding to ~4ft). Waves on the bay will be 1- 3ft through most of the period (although 4ft waves are possible Tue night).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634.

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Roane Point
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Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:25 AM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:52 PM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:58 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Roane Point, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

Allmondsville
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Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:42 AM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:17 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:09 PM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Allmondsville, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

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