Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quinby, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity continue early this week. There is an elevated rip current risk at area beaches today.

2) Hot weather returns by Wednesday/Thursday. There is a chance for thunderstorms late this week as another cold front approaches.

DISCUSSION
As of 635 AM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity continue early this week. There is an elevated rip current risk at area beaches today.

The latest radar showed a few isolated showers across far eastern portions of the area. The ARW and 3km NAM seem to be handling this convection the best and show a continued chance for a few isolated showers through the afternoon across the far eastern portion of the FA, especially across the Eastern Shore this afternoon. As such, have added a slight chance PoP for these regions through the day. Otherwise, temps as of 635 AM ranged from the low-mid 60s inland (most in the lower 60s) and upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast.

Onshore flow continues today with highs in the low-mid 80s and continued lower humidity. E/NE winds may become a bit breezy towards the coast, especially Hampton Roads and south into NE NC with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Will note that the rip current risk is high today across southern beaches given increasing onshore winds and building nearshore waves. Tonight will likely be the coolest night of the week as the high settles overhead, allowing for a favorable radiational cooling setup. Widespread upper 50s are expected inland, with localized mid 50s possible. The wind lightens up on Tue given the high overhead. The high gradually pushes offshore late in the day. Highs Tue in the mid to upper 80s are expected with continued lower humidity.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot weather returns by Wednesday/Thursday. There is a chance for thunderstorms late this week as another cold front approaches.

By Wed, the surface high slides well offshore as strong low pressure tracks across Ontario and the associated cold front drops into the Great Lakes. Locally, the repositioning of the ridge over the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will allow temperatures to warm up a few degrees with high temps in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees Wed and lower 90s Thu. Will note that locally mid 90s are possible Thu.
Meanwhile, S/SW winds increase Wed into Thu with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible Thu. This will allow for moisture return with dew points increasing into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Thu. The cold front approaches the region on Thu before crossing the area Thu evening.
Given increasing moisture and an approaching cold front, scattered showers and storms are possible across mainly the northern half of the area late Thu afternoon into Thu evening (~20% PoPs south and 30-50% north). A few strong storms are possible, but confidence in severe weather is low given how far north the parent low is and uncertainty regarding how high dew points (and instability) ultimately get. A few additional showers or storms are possible Fri across far southern portions of the area, but that will depend on how far south the cold front gets Thu night. Behind the cold front, CAA will be lacking so temps only cool back to near normal Fri and Sat with lower 90s potentially returning by Sun and Mon next week.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 635 AM EDT Monday...

Generally VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through the 12z taf period. A few isolated showers are possible at times across far eastern portions of the area today. However, coverage will likely be very spotty at best. As such (and with PoPs only around 15%) have kept the mention of showers out of the tafs for now. Outside of any possible showers, SCT stratus and CU will continue to be possible across the same region, spreading west towards the I-95 corridor this afternoon.
However, CIGs likely remain VFR (4000-6000ft CIGs ). Clouds likely dissipate this evening with mostly clear skies expected as high pressure builds into the area. Otherwise, light and variable/calm winds early this morning become NE 5-10 kt later this morning into this afternoon. A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible at ECG, however, confidence was too low to reflect in the taf at this time. Winds become calm tonight as the high builds in.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR conditions continue through at least Wednesday. The next chance for showers or storms arrives Thursday as a cold front moves into the region.

MARINE
As of 300 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- NE winds will result in elevated seas across the southern coastal waters through early evening.

- S to SW winds increase later Wed into Thu with SCA conditions likely for the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters.

Surface high pressure is centered over northern MI and extends to the south and east across the Mid-Atlantic early this morning. Winds are E or ENE 5-10 kt with waves 1-2 ft and seas around 3 ft.

Winds have been slower to increase than expected this morning. Wind direction has also averaged more east than northeast which has kept seas from rising as rapidly as previously forecast. Have maintained the ongoing SCA headlines for the southern coastal waters but confidence in seeing widespread seas of 4-5 ft in the nearshore zones has decreased. Accordingly, have slowed the increase in seas by a few hours. Heights are likely to peak by mid to late afternoon with seas expected to decrease below SCA thresholds by early evening. If current trends in wind speed and direction continue through the morning, will likely need to reevaluate the extent/duration of SCAs. Farther offshore, seas are still forecast to build to 5-7 ft for the 20-60nm zones (highest S farther S and SE). Winds decrease tonight into Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region. The high will translate offshore by late Tuesday, allowing winds to become southerly ~10 kt. The gradient is expected to tighten considerably ahead of the next cold front by late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. A period of SCA conditions is looking increasingly likely for the Chesapeake Bay/lower James as well as the coastal waters N of Cape Charles Light. The front is forecast to cross the region Thursday into Friday with improving marine conditions expected.

There is a High Risk for rip currents across the southern beaches today with a Moderate Risk for the northern beaches. The southern beaches will also have a Moderate Rip Risk on Tuesday as swell energy slowly subsides.

Coastal Flooding....

High pressure is expected to move over portions of New England today. The resulting ENE to NE winds will result in increasing tidal anomalies for this evening's high tide cycle. Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for bay side portions of the Eastern Shore as well as locations along of the tidal Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658.