Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quinby, VA
December 11, 2023 1:42 AM EST (06:42 UTC)
Sunrise 7:05AM Sunset 4:49PM Moonrise 5:48AM Moonset 3:30PM
ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 1249 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw late. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Rain with a chance of tstms, then rain late. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 9 seconds. Rain early in the morning, then a chance of rain late in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Wed..W winds 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw late. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Rain with a chance of tstms, then rain late. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 9 seconds. Rain early in the morning, then a chance of rain late in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Wed..W winds 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1249 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
strong cold front is crossing the waters early this morning with winds abruptly turning gusty out of the nw. Rain comes to an end this morning as high pressure builds in from the west to start the week. Improved boating conditions expected for most of the week.
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
strong cold front is crossing the waters early this morning with winds abruptly turning gusty out of the nw. Rain comes to an end this morning as high pressure builds in from the west to start the week. Improved boating conditions expected for most of the week.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 110542 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area overnight. Widespread rain is expected across the area ahead of and behind the front, with locally heavy rain possible at times. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front. Cooler air will move in behind the front with a changeover to snow possible for some.
Drier weather returns Monday through Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 845 PM EST Sunday...
Evening wx analysis shows that the well advertised cold front is now entering our CWA from the NW, and has crossed portions of Louisa/Caroline Counties. Aloft, the strong shortwave has begun to take on a negative tilt as it approaches from the SW (and is still currently over GA). Surface-based instability has waned with the loss of daytime heating, and the latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE over SE VA/NE NC, with little to no SBCAPE along and west of I-95. The front will cross the area from NW-SE between now and 2 AM. Expect a quick ~15F temperature drop following the FROPA along with a 1-2 hour period of gusty NW winds on the order of 35-45+ mph. This will be handed with SPSs if needed (and there is an outside chc that a Severe Tstm Warning or two will be needed for gusts with the front if they are considerably higher than expected).
Precipitation will become stratiform following the FROPA, and am still expecting the stratiform precip to continue into early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around a strengthening low pressure system as it moves up the coast. The fgen band is expected to be strong with enough lift for dynamic cooling within the NW portion of the rain band. As such, CAMs continue to show the potential for rain to change over to snow late tonight into early Monday morning. However, temps are expected to be very marginal with forecast soundings showing sfc temps/dew points around 34F under the snow bands. While dynamic cooling may drop temps to 33-34F, as soon as precip rates lighten up, temps are expected to rise to around 35-36F with any snow ending as light rain/drizzle. Given the warm, wet ground/road temps along with temps likely not dropping below freezing, if there is accumulation, it will be likely be mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces with less of a road impact. The highest confidence in a changeover to snow is across the N Piedmont E to the Northern Neck (including the Richmond metro).
Since this will be a rate- driven event, confidence is low regarding any accumulation. Would not be surprised if someone ends up with around an inch of snow (best chances in the N portions of the FA N of Richmond) but most areas will likely see less. While roads should remain relatively clear/wet, the snow will be heavy wet snow and come down in a heavy burst, likely limiting visibility. The precipitation is forecast to end from W to E between 6-8 AM. Lows are forecast to fall to around 33F NW to the upper 30s SE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
As the low moves offshore Mon, drier air filters into the region with clear skies by the late morning/early afternoon. Temps will be cool Mon and Tues with highs in the upper 40s N to lower 50s S under clear skies due to high pressure overhead. Wed will be slightly milder in the lower 50s N to mid 50s S. Given high pressure overhead, cold temps are expected each night with lows in the low- mid 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast Mon night and mid-upper 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Tues night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EST Sunday...
High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area Sun into Mon while the EURO is dry and the Canadian is in between (only impacting SE portions of the FA). Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon.
Otherwise, a cold front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun. Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 AM EST Monday...
A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will persist through the rest of the night, then conditions improve later this morning.
Rounds of rain will continue through the rest of the night behind a strong cold front. Occasional drops in VIS will be likely in any steadier rain. Winds behind the front are out of the NW and at 15-25kt with gusts up to 25-30+ kt. The highest speeds will be likely at ORF and along the coast. LLWS is expected as well into early tonight at ECG. As the storm system moves away from the local area late into early Mon morning, rain may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont, with a rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z).
Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected today. NW winds will gradually subside through the day.
Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...
Forecast remains on track this afternoon with a strong cold front approaching from the west. Southerly flow is streaming in across the area, though remaining within low-end SCA thresholds so far. Winds are currently 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with seas around 3-5ft and waves of 1-2ft. Expect all of these values to increase as we go through the evening hours as the cold front gets closer, with seas becoming 7-9ft north and 6-8ft south, and waves of 4-5ft in the Mouth of the Bay and 3-4ft in the lower and middle Bay.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening and early overnight hours ahead and along the front. Strong, erratic gusts will be possible in the stronger cells.
The front looks to push through the local waters after 10pm. This will result in an abrupt wind shift out of the northwest. All waters will see wind speeds increase along and behind the frontal passage, thus, Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters, Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound for late this evening into mid-day Monday. Expect northwesterly winds of 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35-45kt possible during this period. Currently think those highest gusts will occur with the initial surge behind the frontal passage as the stronger flow aloft mixes down to the surface. Winds will subside slightly back into SCA thresholds (18-24kt with gusts to 25-30kt) after mid-day/early afternoon on Monday. SCAs will be needed during this time frame as it will take until later Monday evening or thereafter to decrease winds back to 10-15kt and below any criteria. Beyond this system, high pressure will linger over the region through late week with much improved boating conditions.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-631-650- 652-654-656.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ632-634-638- 658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ633.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>637.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area overnight. Widespread rain is expected across the area ahead of and behind the front, with locally heavy rain possible at times. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front. Cooler air will move in behind the front with a changeover to snow possible for some.
Drier weather returns Monday through Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 845 PM EST Sunday...
Evening wx analysis shows that the well advertised cold front is now entering our CWA from the NW, and has crossed portions of Louisa/Caroline Counties. Aloft, the strong shortwave has begun to take on a negative tilt as it approaches from the SW (and is still currently over GA). Surface-based instability has waned with the loss of daytime heating, and the latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE over SE VA/NE NC, with little to no SBCAPE along and west of I-95. The front will cross the area from NW-SE between now and 2 AM. Expect a quick ~15F temperature drop following the FROPA along with a 1-2 hour period of gusty NW winds on the order of 35-45+ mph. This will be handed with SPSs if needed (and there is an outside chc that a Severe Tstm Warning or two will be needed for gusts with the front if they are considerably higher than expected).
Precipitation will become stratiform following the FROPA, and am still expecting the stratiform precip to continue into early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around a strengthening low pressure system as it moves up the coast. The fgen band is expected to be strong with enough lift for dynamic cooling within the NW portion of the rain band. As such, CAMs continue to show the potential for rain to change over to snow late tonight into early Monday morning. However, temps are expected to be very marginal with forecast soundings showing sfc temps/dew points around 34F under the snow bands. While dynamic cooling may drop temps to 33-34F, as soon as precip rates lighten up, temps are expected to rise to around 35-36F with any snow ending as light rain/drizzle. Given the warm, wet ground/road temps along with temps likely not dropping below freezing, if there is accumulation, it will be likely be mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces with less of a road impact. The highest confidence in a changeover to snow is across the N Piedmont E to the Northern Neck (including the Richmond metro).
Since this will be a rate- driven event, confidence is low regarding any accumulation. Would not be surprised if someone ends up with around an inch of snow (best chances in the N portions of the FA N of Richmond) but most areas will likely see less. While roads should remain relatively clear/wet, the snow will be heavy wet snow and come down in a heavy burst, likely limiting visibility. The precipitation is forecast to end from W to E between 6-8 AM. Lows are forecast to fall to around 33F NW to the upper 30s SE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
As the low moves offshore Mon, drier air filters into the region with clear skies by the late morning/early afternoon. Temps will be cool Mon and Tues with highs in the upper 40s N to lower 50s S under clear skies due to high pressure overhead. Wed will be slightly milder in the lower 50s N to mid 50s S. Given high pressure overhead, cold temps are expected each night with lows in the low- mid 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast Mon night and mid-upper 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Tues night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EST Sunday...
High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area Sun into Mon while the EURO is dry and the Canadian is in between (only impacting SE portions of the FA). Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon.
Otherwise, a cold front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun. Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 AM EST Monday...
A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will persist through the rest of the night, then conditions improve later this morning.
Rounds of rain will continue through the rest of the night behind a strong cold front. Occasional drops in VIS will be likely in any steadier rain. Winds behind the front are out of the NW and at 15-25kt with gusts up to 25-30+ kt. The highest speeds will be likely at ORF and along the coast. LLWS is expected as well into early tonight at ECG. As the storm system moves away from the local area late into early Mon morning, rain may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont, with a rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z).
Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected today. NW winds will gradually subside through the day.
Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...
Forecast remains on track this afternoon with a strong cold front approaching from the west. Southerly flow is streaming in across the area, though remaining within low-end SCA thresholds so far. Winds are currently 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with seas around 3-5ft and waves of 1-2ft. Expect all of these values to increase as we go through the evening hours as the cold front gets closer, with seas becoming 7-9ft north and 6-8ft south, and waves of 4-5ft in the Mouth of the Bay and 3-4ft in the lower and middle Bay.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening and early overnight hours ahead and along the front. Strong, erratic gusts will be possible in the stronger cells.
The front looks to push through the local waters after 10pm. This will result in an abrupt wind shift out of the northwest. All waters will see wind speeds increase along and behind the frontal passage, thus, Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters, Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound for late this evening into mid-day Monday. Expect northwesterly winds of 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35-45kt possible during this period. Currently think those highest gusts will occur with the initial surge behind the frontal passage as the stronger flow aloft mixes down to the surface. Winds will subside slightly back into SCA thresholds (18-24kt with gusts to 25-30kt) after mid-day/early afternoon on Monday. SCAs will be needed during this time frame as it will take until later Monday evening or thereafter to decrease winds back to 10-15kt and below any criteria. Beyond this system, high pressure will linger over the region through late week with much improved boating conditions.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-631-650- 652-654-656.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ632-634-638- 658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ633.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>637.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 10 mi | 85 min | NW 8G | 54°F | 29.70 | |||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 19 mi | 85 min | NNW 38G | 29.75 | ||||
| 44089 | 27 mi | 77 min | 53°F | 7 ft | ||||
| KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA | 27 mi | 91 min | SW 7G | 57°F | 52°F | 29.61 | ||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 32 mi | 67 min | N 21G | 44°F | 50°F | |||
| 44072 | 37 mi | 67 min | N 29G | 45°F | 51°F | 3 ft | ||
| CHBV2 | 37 mi | 85 min | SW 8.9G | 62°F | 29.61 | |||
| 44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) | 38 mi | 77 min | 54°F | 7 ft | ||||
| 44064 | 39 mi | 67 min | N 41G | 48°F | 52°F | 2 ft | ||
| 44087 | 40 mi | 77 min | 52°F | 2 ft | ||||
| CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA | 42 mi | 85 min | SSW 7G | 65°F | 29.66 | |||
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 46 mi | 85 min | NNW 19G | 51°F | 29.68 | |||
| WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA | 48 mi | 85 min | WNW 1G | 63°F | 29.65 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA | 13 sm | 7 min | NNW 12G27 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 45°F | 43°F | 93% | 29.73 |
Wind History from MFV
(wind in knots)Quinby Inlet entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:38 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 05:33 AM EST 4.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 11:47 AM EST 0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:52 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:44 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 05:52 PM EST 3.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:46 PM EST 0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:38 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 05:33 AM EST 4.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 11:47 AM EST 0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:52 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:44 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 05:52 PM EST 3.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:46 PM EST 0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 3.1 |
| 4 am |
| 3.8 |
| 5 am |
| 4.3 |
| 6 am |
| 4.3 |
| 7 am |
| 3.7 |
| 8 am |
| 2.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Upshur Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:07 AM EST 0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:39 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:19 AM EST 4.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 12:51 PM EST 0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:52 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:45 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 06:38 PM EST 3.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:07 AM EST 0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:39 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:19 AM EST 4.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 12:51 PM EST 0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:52 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:45 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 06:38 PM EST 3.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.5 |
| 4 am |
| 3.5 |
| 5 am |
| 4.3 |
| 6 am |
| 4.7 |
| 7 am |
| 4.6 |
| 8 am |
| 4 |
| 9 am |
| 3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Wakefield, VA,
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