Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 2:51 PM   Moonset 3:33 AM

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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 1007 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Rest of today - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Tonight - SE winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers.Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning. Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds. Sun - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of rain. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning. Mon night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft.

ANZ600 1007 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure becomes centered over atlantic canada this morning. Another cold front drops across the waters late tonight through Saturday morning. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday, as low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary across the carolinas.

FXUS61 KAKQ 191112 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 712 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure centered over New England early this morning, will shift off the coast during today. A cold front will move across the region late tonight into Saturday morning. Low pressure will track from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Early this morning, weak high pressure was centered over New England, while weak low pressure was located well off the VA coast. Also, low pressure was over wrn OH with a cold front extending from the low swrd through KY and TN. Onshore flow from the combination of the high and low to our NE or E, was bringing low level moisture and lots of stratus into the region. Temps were ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s.

The high and low to our NE and E will shift farther E and out to sea today through tonight, allowing the low to our NW to pull a cold front twd and across the area today through tonight. A backdoor front that is south of the area early this morning, will try to retreat back to the north during today, as the cold front approaches. The high temp forecast will largely depend on how fast that front retreats (and also how quickly the low stratus burns off). Have continued to trend the forecast cooler (esply near the immediate Atlc coast and on the Eastern Shore), where temps likely won't get above the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Still think it warms well into the mid to upper 70s across interior srn VA and NE NC. The greatest amount of uncertainty with respect to temps today remains near the RIC Metro/I-64 Corridor (where model solutions still range from the 60s to lower 70s).

Rain chances will return this aftn. Rain will be sctd at first before increasing in coverage a bit more after 800 pm this evening into Sat morning. Any chances for tstms will likely be focused across the west/southwest portion of the CWA since the backdoor cold front will be retreating across the east, though still cannot rule out a stray rumble of thunder farther north this evening into Sat morning, due to increasing elevated instability. There is a low-end, marginal threat for severe storms across far SW portions of the area (Mecklenburg County), but again this will depend on how far north the front can retreat. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat with any stronger storms. This is not looking like a major rain event, or even moderate rain for that matter. QPF forecasts are still showing barely .10-.25" in a few spots, though that may even be a stretch. Lows tonight will range through the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

The front likely moves ESE of the FA by the middle of Sat morning, and isolated to perhaps sctd showers (isolated tstm) will likely linger over ESE portions of the region through late Sat morning into early Sat aftn. We should see at least partial clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn, as drier air filters in behind the front. As of now, forecast highs Sat will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

A stronger shot of CAA arrives Sat night into Sun morning. Low temps will drop into the 40s to around 50. Sun through Sun night, a southern stream low pressure system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states and off the SE coast. This means that rain chances will return, likely by Sun aftn across the southern half of the forecast area. Temps will likely be cooler across southern portions of the forecast area (due to clouds and increasing rain chances), with highs only in the lower 60s (potentially even upper 50s in spots). The northern 2/3rds of the forecast area will see highs in the lower to mid 60s (cooler across the Eastern Shore). Rain chances will continue over the srn/SE counties Sun evening into early Mon morning. Lows will range through the 40s to near 50.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 415 AM EDT Friday...

Any lingering rain will end over extrm SE counties Mon morning, as the low tracks farther out to sea. Under a partly to mostly sunny sky, high temps Mon will range through the 60s (warmest central and wrn counties). High pressure briefly builds over the area, then slides offshore during Tue, before another cold front brings shower chances to the region Wed into Wed evening.
Although it will be very cool Tue morning (upper 30s to upper 40s), temps should rebound nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
The cold front will push out to sea Wed night, with high pressure building into/over the area for Thu. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Wed. Lows Wed night in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Highs on Thu mainly in the lower to mid 60s.

AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

Onshore flow was bringing low level moisture into the region early this morning, resulting in IFR and low MVFR CIGs at the TAF sites. IFR/LIFR CIGs will linger through this morning, before improving to MVFR by late this morning or early this aftn. Clouds will then linger through the day today with VFR/MVFR CIGs . Finally, sctd showers (maybe isolated tstms) move in from W to E for late this aftn into Sat morning.

Outlook: Rain chances generally end after Sat morning, but return later Sun into early Mon, as low pressure tracks from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sun into Mon.

MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Latest analysis shows a backdoor cold front now well south of the local waters. Surge of E-NE winds has gradually weakened, as high pressure builds south from the northern Mid-Atlantic. Will allow SCA over the lower bay to expire at 08z. SCAs remain in effect into at least late this morning with choppy E-NE wind wave lingering into midday across the northern and central coastal waters, with significant seas slightly lower (3-4 ft) to the south of the VA/NC border. E-NE winds ~10-15 kt veer to the E-SE this afternoon ahead of another cold front which drops across the region late tonight (Fri night) into Saturday morning.
Winds veer around to the NNW post frontal Sat morning, but should be mainly sub-SCA given weak cool-air advection. Winds remain onshore ~10 kt over the waters Sat aftn and evening, as a weak coastal trough/coastal front remains over the area. WNW winds do increase Sat night into Sunday, but look to remain sub- SCA at this time, with deepening low pressure along the front nudging it farther E-SE and offshore. Meanwhile, 1022+mb high pressure builds in from the west. Waves mainly 1-2 ft this weekend, seas 2-3 ft north, 3-4 ft south. Would not be surprised to eventually (briefly) need SCA over southern coastal waters south of Cape Charles by the time we get into the day on Monday, but will keep just below for now.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654- 656.

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Quinby Inlet entrance
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Fri -- 04:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:36 AM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:51 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:13 PM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia, Tide feet

Upshur Neck
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Fri -- 12:23 AM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:22 AM EDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:55 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:59 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia, Tide feet

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