Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Quinby, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:47PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 8:28 AM EST (13:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:22AMMoonset 1:11PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 705 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight, then becoming N 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers early in the evening, then showers in the late evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds, subsiding to 3 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds late. A chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the evening. A chance of snow.
Fri..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of snow in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ600 705 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure pushes off the coast today. A cold front crosses the area late tonight, then stalls along the gulf coast Thursday. Low pressure tracks northeast along this boundary Thursday night into Friday as arctic high pressure plunges into the nations mid section.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quinby, VA
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location: 37.47, -75.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 181130 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 630 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure pushes off the coast today. A cold front crosses the area late tonight, then stalls along the Gulf coast Thursday. Low pressure tracks northeast along this boundary Thursday night into Friday as arctic high pressure plunges into the nations mid section.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 350 AM EST Tuesday .

Latest MSAS has high pressure over the local area with high level clouds increasing along with patchy fog. Models show the high retreating to the ne today with the flow becoming sw ahead of the apprchg cold front. Although moisture increases at various levels, high res data not showing much in the way of pcpn thru abt 18Z. Moisture does increase this aftrn with the best support passing across nrn VA assctd with a quick moving s/w. Kept chc PoPs. One last mild day with highs mid-upr 50s nw (given weak wedge) to the mid-upr 60s se.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 350 AM EST Tuesday .

Abundant moisture progged to stream ne ahead/along and even behind the cold front that crosses the area tonight. Thus, increased PoPS to categorical most areas with PoPS tapering off late across the north. QPF avgg btwn 1/4 to 1/2 inch (greatest se where some mdt rainfall is psbl after midnite). Lows in the 40s except a few upr 30s nwrn zones.

The cold front pushes south of the area Wed morning with a 1045+ mb high building se from the nw. Rain lingers across the srn half of the fa during the morning and through the aftrn hrs across nrn NC. Otw, becoming pt to mstly sunny across the north remaining mstly cldy south. Cooler than today but still near normal temps with highs in the upr 40s-lwr 50s, coolest south where clouds and pcpn lingers.

Mstly clr to start off Wed nite then increasing clouds from the south after midnite. Lows upr 20s north to mid 30s south.

Forecast gets a bit more interesting Thurs as moisture from a srn stream systm bucks up against the dry air from the strong sfc high to the nw. Model differences with no consistancy makes for a low confidence forecast attm. Will keep most of the fa dry except show some light rain moving north to the VA/NC border in the aftrn. Despite falling thicknesses, expect the pcpn to be main in liquid form thru the daylight hrs with highs 40-45, athough temps could drop back into the upr 30s across the south if the pcpn comes in faster than expected.

Thurs nites forecast is still up for grabs given all the different solns out there. After coordinating with WPC, have based Thurs nites forecast more in line with the ECMWF (which seems to have maintained the best consistancy over the past 2 days). Thicknesses support a mix rain/snow changeover to snow before tapering off and ending after midnite across sern Va/ne NC. QPF is anthr challenge given a drier model soln. Given a qpf btwn .05 and .15 in there, went ahead and added some minor accumls to the grids. For now will show a dusting as far north as a MVF-PHF- AKQ-AVC line . arnd 1/2 inch across the rest of sern VA with around 1 inch across ne NC. These values would be a winter wx advsry at worst, but expect this to change as the event draws near Lows in the 20s to arnd 30 se. Note. the ensembles have lowered the chance for 3 in or more of snow so have indicated this change in the day 4 winter wx graphic.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Monday .

he 12Z/17 GFS and 12Z/17 ECMWF (along with their respective ensembles) are in fairly good agreement through the extended period. High pressure will build from the Plains/MS Valley, eastward into and over the region Fri into early Sun morning. The high will shift off the coast and into the Atlc during Sun, with low pressure moving into the Middle MS Valley by Mon morning. This low will then track ENE toward the area during Mon. Dry/sunny and chilly on Fri with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunny and milder on Sat with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Partly to mostly sunny and warmer on Sun with highs ranging through the 50s. Becoming mostly cloudy or cloudy late Sun night through Mon, with increasing chances for rain showers. Highs on Mon will range through the 50s. Lows will range through the 20s Fri night, in the mid 20s to mid 30s Sat night, and in the mid 30s to lower 40s Sun night.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 630 AM EST Tuesday .

The areas of IFR fog across the sern TAF sites will burn off this morning with VFR CIGS to follow as high pressure slowly moves east. MVFR CIGS expected tonight as shwrs overspread the area ahead of a cold front that will cross the area after 06Z. Lcl IFR CIGS/VSBYS in both rain and fog are possible tonight. SW winds aob 10 kts today will shift to the north and become rather gusty (15-25 KTS) late tonight along the coast.

OUTLOOK . High pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Thursday morning. Low pressure tracks across the Sern Conus Thurs night. This will bring a chc of a rain/snow mix then all snow for far srn VA and NE NC along with degraded flight conditions. High pressure returns Friday into Saturday.

MARINE. As of 350 AM EST Tuesday .

E winds 5-10 kt early this morning will veer to the southeast by late this morning as high pressure drifts eastward and offshore. Winds become SSW into this afternoon but no higher than 10 kt. Low pressure moves across SE Canada this evening, pushing a cold front into and through the area tonight. Winds turn to the NNW behind the front and increase to 15-20 knots through late morning Wednesday, except 10-15 kt for the Rivers. Winds may also stay around 20 kt for the Currituck Sound well into Wednesday afternoon. Have hoisted SCA headlines to account for these winds. Waves will reach 2-3 ft on the Bay. Seas build to 5 ft south of Parramore Island. Not as confident of SCA conditions north of Parramore, so have not raised headlines here as of yet. Seas should remain around 5 ft off the Outer banks through Wed evening.

The extended portion of the marine forecast remains in flux with the potential for low pressure to form off the Southeast coast on Thursday as arctic high pressure over the central Plains builds southeast. How far north the low comes will have significant impacts on the wind/wave/seas forecast. Consensus of the models this morning suggests SCA conditions for much of the waters from late Thursday night through Friday and have adjusted the forecast accordingly.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ633-656. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ658.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . ERI/TMG AVIATION . MPR MARINE . JDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 10 mi59 min 47°F 46°F1023.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 19 mi59 min 1024.4 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi59 min 46°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 32 mi53 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 45°F1026.7 hPa
44072 37 mi39 min ENE 5.8 G 5.8 45°F
CHBV2 37 mi59 min 46°F 1021.9 hPa
44064 39 mi69 min N 1.9 G 3.9 1022.9 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 39 mi29 min 46°F3 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 39 mi59 min 44°F 1024 hPa
44087 40 mi29 min 47°F1 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 42 mi59 min 46°F 1023.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 46 mi59 min 42°F 47°F1023.2 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 48 mi59 min 44°F 1022.8 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA14 mi2.6 hrsE 57.00 miFair44°F43°F97%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NE7NE10NE12NE10NE7E4N7E4E9E5CalmNE3NE3E4E3E4E3E3E4E5E6E5E5
1 day agoS5S6S5SW11SW10SW9SW8SW6SW4SW4S4CalmE3SE3S6S4S7S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--N5N6CalmNE4E4E3SE4S6SE7CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4S4S4S3SW4S7S5S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia
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Quinby Inlet entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:33 AM EST     4.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:02 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:10 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:04 PM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:10 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.83.5443.62.92.11.20.50.10.411.82.53.13.33.12.61.91.30.60.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia
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Upshur Neck
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:19 AM EST     4.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:06 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:50 PM EST     3.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:14 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.22.23.244.54.43.83.12.21.30.50.20.41.122.93.53.73.32.82.11.40.70.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.