Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Quinby, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:50PM Monday December 16, 2019 2:29 AM EST (07:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:34PMMoonset 10:58AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 100 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Showers.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 ft late in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 ft late.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ600 100 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A backdoor front will drop across the area overnight into Monday morning. The front will list back to the north during the day Monday as low pressure moves in from the west. A stronger low pressure system will cross the waters later Tuesday, and will drag another cold front across the region area late Tuesday into early Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quinby, VA
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location: 37.47, -75.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 160532 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1232 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. A slow moving front will become nearly stationary across the area overnight into Monday. A low pressure system crossing the mid Atlantic region Tuesday will drag a cold front across the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 1000 PM EST Sunday..

A front is extending across the northern portion of the area tonight (from Charlottesville to the mouth of the Potomac, and across southern Delmarva). The front will move south overnight then stalling across central VA and the VA Eastern Shore. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 30s tonight.

A tricky temperature forecast for Monday as the position of the stationary front will determine whether temperatures will reach the 60s or remain in the low 40s. Precip will move into the area from west to east early Monday morning, affecting areas of the central VA Piedmont, northern Richmond metro, Northern Neck and central Delmarva. Precip will likely start as snow/sleet across the MD Eastern shore, and possible rain/snow mix across northwestern Louisa County, VA and northern Caroline County, VA. QPF amounts will be light and surface temps of 33-35 degrees in these areas will likely result in little to no accumulation.

Any snow/sleet will quickly change over to rain shortly after sunrise. Temperatures will be highly variable Monday. The front is expected to stall near Farmville, between Richmond and Petersburg, across the Middle Peninsula, and VA Eastern Shore. North of the front, high temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s, while south of the front will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 230 PM EST Sunday .

Monday night the front will make a slow progression to the north as a warm front. A low pressure system will track from the TN valley to the Mid-Atlantic early Tuesday. Temperatures will remain steady or climb slightly Monday night into early Tuesday. Low temps Tuesday morning range from the lower 40s north to mid 50s south. Rain chances increase Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front that will cross the western portions of the CWA Tuesday afternoon and exit eastern portions of the area by late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Rainfall amounts on Tuesday generally in the 0.3 to 0.75 inch range. High temps will be mild as the region sits in the warm sector for much of the day. Expect upper 50s north to mid and upper 60s south.

Conditions improve quickly after the frontal passage as high pressure builds into the region overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Modest CAA and clearing skies should drop temps to the lower 20s NW to around 30 SE by Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 230 PM EST Sunday .

High pressure remains in control Wednesday through Friday. This will result in dry weather and slightly below normal temps during this period. Low temps Thursday and Friday in the low 20s, near 30 at the coast, and high temps in the 30s/40s. Overnight model runs had a coastal developing over the SE and riding up the Atlantic coast next weekend. 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF today have a low developing over the eastern gulf and then slowly drifting off the SE coast over the weekend, while the CMC still tracks the low up the Atlantic coast. With the high uncertainty this far out, just went with low chance pops for next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 1230 AM EST Monday .

VFR conditions at all sites to start the 06z TAF period with some SCT to BKN mid-level clouds (especially northern half of the area) around ~10k feet. KRIC may reach MVFR conditions Monday morning due to cloud bases around 3000 feet due to a stationary boundary lingering across the area. KSBY will likely fall to MVFR by late Monday morning or afternoon with -RA showers and remain MVFR for the majority of the day on Monday into Monday night. Winds will be light and variable to calm Sunday night. South of a stalled boundary winds will become SW around 10 kt (mainly for KPHF/KECG/KORF)

OUTLOOK . Tuesday has the potential for degraded flight conditions due to low clouds and rain across all airports ahead of a cold front which passes through the region Tuesday evening. High pressure builds Wednesday with VFR conditions returning.

MARINE. As of 615 PM EST Sunday .

Latest analysis reveals that the pressure gradient has weakened considerably over the region this evening, with sfc high pressure centered to our NW progged to move E into the northern mid-Atlantic overnight. This will force a weak backdoor cold front through the region. Have cancelled the one remaining SCA headline across the northern coastal waters as seas have subsided to 3-4 ft (with generally 2-3 ft seas elsewhere) and waves in the Bay only ~1 foot. Expect winds to shift to the NE over the upper Bay/northern coastal waters after 03Z, spreading farther south after midnight. Some uptick in wind speeds is anticipated (to 10-15kt) along with waves in the Bay building to around 2 ft.

Much of the 12z/15 model suite seem to be in fair to good agreement with respect to handling of winds as the front settles south over the area Monday, w/low pressure sliding along the boundary toward the local area from the mid-south into Monday night through Tuesday. Typical minor timing differences remain during this period, but in general, ENE wind of 5-10kt is expected N of the boundary, with 10-15kt SSW wind to the S of the boundary. Seas should be 2-3ft while the boundary is over the area, with 1-2ft waves in the Bay.

By late morning Tuesday into Tue aftn, SW wind could briefly increase to 15-20kt for the lower Bay, Currituck Sound and ocean zones, which would allow for 3-4ft seas and 2-3ft waves in the lower Bay and result in some SCA winds Tue aftn. However, predominate SCA conditions not anticipated until the cold front drops across the waters Tuesday evening, with modest cold air advection occurring Tuesday night with a NNW wind increasing to 20-25kt. A second, stronger surge of CAA comes with secondary cold front (and another round of CAA) Wednesday night, w/W-NW winds increasing to ~25-30 kt. Overall, SCAs are likely for Tuesday night through early Thursday, with perhaps a lull during the day Wednesday before secondary surge of cold air arrives Wed night. High pressure returns Thursday into Friday, with improving boating conditions.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . CMF NEAR TERM . CMF SHORT TERM . CMF LONG TERM . CMF AVIATION . AJB MARINE . LKB/MAM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 10 mi59 min NNE 8 G 11 42°F 47°F1023.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 19 mi59 min NE 14 G 17 1024.2 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi59 min ENE 7 G 8.9 48°F
44089 27 mi29 min 50°F3 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 32 mi41 min ENE 14 G 16 47°F1027.5 hPa
44072 37 mi39 min SSE 12 G 14 45°F
CHBV2 37 mi65 min ENE 14 G 15 45°F 1021.8 hPa
44064 39 mi39 min ENE 14 G 16 45°F 1023.2 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 39 mi59 min 50°F2 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 39 mi59 min ENE 14 G 16 45°F 1023.8 hPa
44087 40 mi29 min 48°F2 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 42 mi59 min NE 16 G 19 47°F 1023.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 46 mi59 min ENE 9.9 G 12 45°F 49°F1022.9 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 48 mi65 min ENE 12 G 14 46°F 1022.4 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA14 mi54 minno data10.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F28°F60%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia
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Quinby Inlet entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:12 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:33 AM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:57 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:03 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:26 PM EST     3.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.11.10.3-00.10.923.244.44.43.931.80.80-0.3-00.81.82.73.43.7

Tide / Current Tables for Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia
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Upshur Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:16 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:57 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:19 AM EST     4.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:07 PM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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43.32.31.20.4-00.112.33.64.54.94.84.23.11.90.80.1-0.3-00.923.13.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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