Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Quinby, VA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday August 17, 2019 10:45 PM EDT (02:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:21PMMoonset 7:05AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 1005 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers late.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers until late afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late in the evening, then becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft late. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..W winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1005 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled near the southern waters today. A wave of low pressure will traverse the boundary Sunday afternoon and evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quinby, VA
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location: 37.47, -75.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180138
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
938 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A weak area of low pressure will track northeast along the
carolina coast tonight and then push off the outer banks and
virginia capes Sunday. Weak high pressure builds into the area
Monday and settles off the coast Tuesday.

Near term through Sunday
As of 935 pm edt Saturday...

latest sfc analysis shows developing low pressure off the coast
of sc that is slowly tracking to the ne. Closer to our area,
showers tstms have dissipated leaving behind bkn mid-high
clouds. Temperatures are around 70f in the SW piedmont (where
tstms moved through earlier today). Elsewhere, it is warm humid
with temperatures in the upper 70s-lower 80s (coupled w
dewpoints in the mid 70s). Warm and humid conditions will
continue through tonight with lows in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Fog
and stratus are expected to develop late tonight into early
Sunday morning primarily for the piedmont, central and s-central
va, interior NE nc, and the md ERN shore. Guidance is hinting
at some locally dense fog across the SW va piedmont between
09-12z Sun (vsbys could drop to 1 4-1 2 mile at
times... Especially in areas that received significant rain
earlier today).

The system along the sc coast tonight will slowly drift newd
along the coast tonight and push off the outer banks and va
capes later tonight into Sunday. Guidance is mixed with regard
to how far N showers will extend, but the 17 12z href does
depict a decent signal for showers and perhaps a few embedded
tstms pushing into far SE va and NE nc primarily late tonight
into Sunday morning. Pops are highest (60-70%) along the coast
and adjacent to the albemarle sound and tapering off to 20-40%
from the peninsula to the lower ERN shore. There is a potential
for locally heavy rain with decent forcing for ascent combined
with pw value upwards of 2.25" and a deep warm cloud layer.

Pops gradually diminish through the aftn as the wave pulls off
the coast. However, some showers tstms could drift off the blue
ridge into the piedmont later in the aftn. Continued humid with
high temperatures ranging from the low mid 80s along the coast,
with low 90s from the i-95 corridor W where heat indices could
approach 100f.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
As of 350 pm edt Saturday...

Sunday night through Tuesday will largely be dominated by mid
and upper level ridging and weak high pressure at the surface,
as the frontal boundary finally pushes well off the coast. Hot
and humid conditions develop as 850mb temperatures rise to 19-
21c Monday and Tuesday, and this should support high
temperatures in the low mid 90s (upper 80s at the coast) both
days. Dewpoints potentially remain 70-75f during peak heating
resulting in heat indices of 100-105f. Morning lows will
generally be 70-75f. Pops are mainly 20% or less Monday, and
15-30% Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
As of 350 pm Saturday...

large scale pattern at the beginning of the extended period
will feature ridging over the WRN atlantic southwest us, with a
strong upper low just S of the hudson bay. Weak troughing over
the southeast us (between the two ridges) will allow for
isolated- scattered aftn evening convection to develop on wed
(pops mainly 20- 40%). Ridging over the WRN atlantic slowly
retreats to the SE on Thu fri. This happens as the area low low
pressure (sfc-aloft) over the hudson bay moves eastward and the
trailing cold front slowly approaches the region from the nw. As
the cold front approaches the region by late thu, more
organized convection could develop (especially north west) late
thu and persist through the first part of Thu night. As a
result, have high-end chc pops from 18z thu-06z fri. The cold
front potentially stalls over the SRN part of the CWA from fri-
next weekend as the western atlantic ridge tries to build back
westward. If the front stalls, this would lead to continued
chances of scattered showers tstms (highest during the
aftn evening).

Highs mainly in the low 90s on wed-thu, cooling into the mid
80s for most areas by fri-sat. Forecast lows are mainly in the
low 70s on Wed thu, with mid-upper 60s inland around 70f near
the coast from Fri through next weekend.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
As of 745 pm edt Saturday...

showers tstms across SRN va NE nc earlier this evening have
weakened, leaving behind mid-high clouds. A weak area of low
pressure continues to develop along a stationary frontal
boundary near the sc coast. The aforementioned area of low
pressure will track NE along the boundary late tonight into
Sunday morning, bringing the potential for showers and embedded
tstms to ecg, and potentially orf. Latest hi-res guidance shows
that the best chc of pcpn will be from 11-18z at ecg 13-20z at
orf. While prevailing vsbys likely remainVFR MVFR, brief ifr
vsbys will be possible in the heavier showers tstms Sunday
morning. In addition, prevailing MVFR CIGS are likely at ecg orf
for much of the day on Sunday. Ifr fog stratus could once again
develop late tonight into Sunday morning, with the best
potential at ric (with lesser chances at phf sby). The low
gradually pulls away from the coast during the aftn, with a low
probability (15-20%) of an aftn shower or tstm.

Outlook... MainlyVFR conditions are expected to prevail Monday
through Thursday. A low probability of aftn evening showers tstms
will continue Monday and Tuesday. A higher chc of showers tstms
arrives by Wednesday and Thursday as a trough moves through the
area.

Marine
As of 350 pm edt Saturday...

high pressure off the coast is leading to 5-10 knot winds from
the east and southeast this afternoon. Waves are around 1 ft and
seas range from around 2 ft S to 2-3 ft n.

Winds will slowly become more southerly tonight but remain 5-10
knots. Global and high-res models have come into better
agreement regarding the expected track of low pressure currently
located off the sc coast. This low will move rather quickly
northeastward overnight and is expected to clip the area during
the day on Sunday. Will show increasing southeasterly flow of
10-15 knots from the southern ches bay southward into the
coastal waters through early afternoon as the low tracks
northeastward from the albemarle sound tomorrow afternoon. Winds
will quickly switch from onshore to offshore as the low passes
a given latitude. Southerly flow resumes by early Monday into
the mid week period. Waves will build to 1-2 ft (highest at the
mouth of the bay) on Sunday while seas will briefly build to 2-4
ft S and ~3 ft N as the low passes. Seas subside to 2-3 ft s
and closer to 3 ft N through mid week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz tmg
near term... Ajz eri
short term... Ajz tmg
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz eri
marine... Rhr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 10 mi46 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 79°F 84°F1015.3 hPa (+0.4)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 19 mi46 min 1016.1 hPa (-0.0)
44089 27 mi46 min 78°F3 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi52 min SW 5.1 G 7 80°F
44072 37 mi26 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 82°F
CHBV2 37 mi52 min SW 8 G 9.9 82°F 1014.3 hPa
44064 39 mi26 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 81°F 1014.7 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 39 mi46 min 80°F2 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 39 mi46 min WSW 7 G 8 82°F 1015.7 hPa (-0.0)
44087 40 mi46 min 81°F1 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 42 mi46 min WSW 5.1 G 6 81°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.0)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 46 mi46 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 82°F1014.9 hPa (-0.0)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 48 mi52 min SSW 9.9 G 13 81°F 1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA14 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair76°F74°F94%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3S5CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NW3W8SW3S5S5S7S9
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S5S6CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmE4E3CalmCalmSE4E3CalmNE3CalmE4SE3E3E4SE5SE8SE7E4SE6SE5SE7SE4S4S3
2 days agoNE4E4CalmCalmSE3CalmNE4E4E6E5NE8E6E8E6E9E6E6E10E11E7CalmE5NE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia
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Quinby Inlet entrance
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Sat -- 03:44 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:57 AM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:53 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:08 PM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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31.90.90.20.10.51.52.53.33.94.13.832.11.30.60.40.81.72.73.64.24.54.3

Tide / Current Tables for Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia
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Upshur Neck
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Sat -- 04:48 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:43 AM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:57 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:54 PM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.1210.300.61.72.83.84.44.54.13.22.31.40.70.50.91.93.14.14.85

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.