Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Menlo Park, CA

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 102 PM PST Thu Jan 23 2025

Another beautiful afternoon and evening is in store as the ridge continues to hold on. By this time tomorrow, a positively tilted trough will move across the Bay Area, ushering in a significant change to the pattern. A narrow band of moisture will precede the cold air, though the PWAT anomaly looks to only max out around 100% of normal before quickly drying. While the moisture is not impressive, the cold air mass is legit. The 850 mb temperature are expected to drop to the 10th percentile for this time of year, or around the freezing mark. It's currently around 56F, for context. That means that in addition to cold mornings in the valleys, higher elevations, and the daytime highs everywhere will be more chilly than they have been recently. We will also get the combination of cold and wind, that hasn't been a problem with the recent radiational cooling dominated mornings. The minimum surface temperature may be similar to previous nights, but with stronger winds and less recovery during the day, it will feel more uncomfortable through the weekend.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM PST Thu Jan 23 2025

At 500 mb, the trough will linger and eventually spawn a cut-off low pressure system over the Bay Area. With the cold air aloft, the low-level lapse rates are steeper than moist adiabatic, so there is a chance for convection on Saturday. The problem is moisture. Outside of the narrow band of moderate moisture on Friday, the air mass is continental polar in nature, and will be quite dry. Since dry air cools at a faster rate than saturated air when lifted, the chance for buoyancy, convection, and thunderstorms is reduced. There is still a slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday, however. These would likely not produce much if any precipitation, leading to a non-zero probability of dry thunderstorms that could spark a fire. Otherwise, we are expecting some light rain across the Central Coast this weekend, which may extend up the the central Bay Area. With strong offshore winds expected in the North Bay, rain is less likely. Fortunately it looks like Southern California will get some of this rain as well, and the rain rates should be low enough to prevent burn scar land slides. However, a slow moving shower could be enough to trigger that hazard. By Monday, the low will drift into southern California, shifting our winds back offshore and ending the chance for rain. The rest of next week looks dry, with tremendous uncertainty in the long wave pattern beyond next weekend.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 853 PM PST Thu Jan 23 2025

Satellite shows clear skies and dry conditions continuing this evening. Therefore, high confidence VFR through the TAF period for most terminals with exception of Monterey Bay. Winds are relatively light through the TAF period with the exception of KSNS.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Light winds through the TAF period with winds turning onshore and becoming moderate by Friday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through most of the TAF period. Models suggest ceilings rebuilding Friday night to MVFR but confidence is low to moderate. Moderate SE drainage expected overnight with onshore winds returning Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 853 PM PST Thu Jan 23 2025

Winds and seas increase into Friday as the next storm system arrives. Northerly winds will increase and wrap around a low pressure as it moves through the area with breezy and gusty winds expected. The Northern outer waters will experience gale-fore gusts. Expect rough to very rough seas Friday through Sunday before wave heights begin to abate and winds weaken Monday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 10 AM PST Sunday for CAZ504.

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ516.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 9 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.