Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Menlo Park, CA

SHORT TERM
Issued at 329 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025 (Today and tonight)

The forecast is on track this morning, as high level clouds stream in from a storm system churning over the Pacific. This has kept temperatures varied, but all be it, warmer than normal. Depending on where you're at, temperatures vary from the upper 40s to upper 50s for interior valleys and folks along the coast and the low 60s to low 70s for those on the mountains. This will help lead to another warm and dry day; however, cloud cover and the upper level ridge over southern California flattening, should limit high temperature growth compared to what we've seen the last few days. Highs for Tuesday will range from the mid 70s to low 80 for interior valleys and higher terrain, while coastal communities peak in the mid 60s to low 70s.

The pattern continues to shift to zonal flow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, setting us up for a midweek pattern change and unsettled weather.

LONG TERM
Issued at 329 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025 (Wednesday through Monday)

A strong upper low will advanced towards the West Coast Wednesday into Thursday with the trough digging towards the PacNW and northern California. This will bring unsettled weather to the Bay Area and portions of the Central Coast, primarily increasing southerly winds and rain. There are some models that hint a slight chance for thunderstorms offshore and perhaps over the North Bay counties late Wednesday evening and into the early overnight hours. Chances for thunder spread south early Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours. We will have decent shear and moisture, but CAPE is low or low. This should keep any thunderstorm development well below severe criteria with the main concerns being gusty winds, heavy rain, and flashes of lightning. Chances for thunder generally sit at 20% or less with this forecast package update. When it comes to rainfall totals, the forecast generally remains on track. From 4 AM Wednesday through 4 AM Friday, the regions coastal ranges can expect the see 2- 3" of rainfall, 1-2" in the higher terrain elsewhere in the region and the North Bay, 1-1.25" in the City of San Francisco, and generally less than 1" in the interior valleys and around the Monterey Bay region. There is the potential for less rainfall within the typically rain shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall).

Moving on to the other hazard, wind. Models and ensemble guidance continue to depict southerly winds ramping up late Wednesday night through Thursday morning before tapering. Look for wind gusts to range from 35 to 45 mph for interior valley locations, with stronger gusts up to 45 to 55 mph along the coast and at the higher elevations. Stronger gusts, potentially in excess of 60 mph, are possible through favored gaps and passes.

Once the main front moves through, we'll be left with post-frontal showers Thursday into Friday. A drying trend is expected on Saturday, though this should be brief as ensembles favor a trough pattern to return after that.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 353 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

Areas of fog including dense fog /LIFR-VLIFR/ have been confined to the more immediate coastline and coastal waters. Elsewhere it's VFR. Mixing winds will help lift areas of morning fog to VFR by late morning. Low stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ return tonight and Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Mainly light northwest wind today becoming southwest 5 to 8 knots tonight and Wednesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Areas of fog and dense fog /LIFR-VLIFR/ mixing out by late this morning. Otherwise VFR today. Low stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ return tonight and Wednesday morning. Mainly light winds becoming onshore 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and early evening, then light winds tonight and Wednesday morning.

MARINE
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

High pressure over the coastal waters and bays will weaken and move eastward on Wednesday. A low pressure system and cold front will develop and strengthen over the offshore waters and reach northern California late Wednesday night and Thursday. The strong cold front will produce gales, including possibly storm force gusts over the northern and inner coastal waters, while passing eastward across the coastal waters and bays late Wednesday and early Thursday. Heavy rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. Strong winds combined with a building NW swell will generate hazardous seas across the waters.
Winds will decrease Friday, but the larger swell continues to build with seas up to 15 feet before diminishing through the weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Mry Bay.